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December 26-27 Winter Storm Part 2

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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NEOH

NEOH

Posted
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Nice disco from BUF. Throw the NAM and GFS out sounds like to me. Euro vs Tebo?

IT IS WORTH NOTHING THAT THE MSLP SOLUTION FROM THE GFS DOES NOT LOOK CLIMATOLOGICALLY/METEOROLOGICALLY ACCURATE. AT A CRUCIAL TIME PERIOD (06Z THURS) WHEN THE ENERGY IS BEING TRANSFERRED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...INSTEAD OF DEPICTING A WEAK PRIMARY LOW NEAR BRADFORD WITH A STENGTHENING SECONDARY CENTER SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN PA...THE

GFS SEEMS TO BE AVERAGING THE TWO SFC LOWS INTO ONE STRONGER LOW OVER STATE COLLEGE. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT A COMMON STORM TRACK AND IS SOMEWHAT INACCURATE AS TO THE PROCESSES INVOLVED ALOFT.

MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE BOTH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEP US COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...WHICH IS WHAT ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT WITH A LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ECMWF SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE MORE METEOROLOGICALLY ACCURATE AT THIS POINT.

AT THIS JUNCTURE...STILL TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF-LED CAMP OF A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND AN ALL SNOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THREE STRAIGHT DAYS NOW. WHILE WE CANNOT YET RULE OUT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAT WOULD PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX AS PER THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...JUST DO NOT TRUST THE NAM THIS FAR OUT...AS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT IT IS TYPICALLY MUCH LESS RELIABLE AT THIS

STAGE COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES. DISCOUNTING THE NAM LEAVES ONLY THE GFS SUGGESTING A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A MIX...AND AM NOT ABOUT TO INDICATE CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THREE DAYS OUT. THUS...WILL KEEP PTYPE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...QPF TOTALS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL REMAIN INDICATIVE OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

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csnavywx

csnavywx

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Wouldn't throw anything out. They clearly delineate that there's two scenarios and that they favor the EC's scenario once it gets that far east for various reasons. If one were going to question anything at this point it would have to be what the wave does when it comes off the Rockies and how warm sector convection interacts with the vortex. The NAM and SREF's track to the NW is largely due to a stronger intensification process between 36 and 48 hours, which then affect their later track path (convection also plays a role here too). It would be unwise to throw this scenario out.

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wisconsinwx

wisconsinwx

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Nice disco from BUF. Throw the NAM and GFS out sounds like to me. Euro vs Tebo?

IT IS WORTH NOTHING THAT THE MSLP SOLUTION FROM THE GFS DOES NOT LOOK CLIMATOLOGICALLY/METEOROLOGICALLY ACCURATE. AT A CRUCIAL TIME PERIOD (06Z THURS) WHEN THE ENERGY IS BEING TRANSFERRED EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...INSTEAD OF DEPICTING A WEAK PRIMARY LOW NEAR BRADFORD WITH A STENGTHENING SECONDARY CENTER SOMEWHERE OVER EASTERN PA...THE

GFS SEEMS TO BE AVERAGING THE TWO SFC LOWS INTO ONE STRONGER LOW OVER STATE COLLEGE. AGAIN...THIS IS NOT A COMMON STORM TRACK AND IS SOMEWHAT INACCURATE AS TO THE PROCESSES INVOLVED ALOFT.

MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM ARE BOTH FURTHER SOUTH AND KEEP US COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW...WHICH IS WHAT ONE WOULD NORMALLY EXPECT WITH A LOW PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHEAST AT THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE ECMWF SOLUTION APPEARS TO BE MORE METEOROLOGICALLY ACCURATE AT THIS POINT.

AT THIS JUNCTURE...STILL TEND TO FAVOR THE ECMWF-LED CAMP OF A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK AND AN ALL SNOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THAT THIS MODEL HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR THREE STRAIGHT DAYS NOW. WHILE WE CANNOT YET RULE OUT A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK THAT WOULD PRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A MIX AS PER THE NAM AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...JUST DO NOT TRUST THE NAM THIS FAR OUT...AS EXPERIENCE SHOWS THAT IT IS TYPICALLY MUCH LESS RELIABLE AT THIS

STAGE COMPARED TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE PACKAGES. DISCOUNTING THE NAM LEAVES ONLY THE GFS SUGGESTING A LIMITED POTENTIAL FOR A MIX...AND AM NOT ABOUT TO INDICATE CHANCES OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET THREE DAYS OUT. THUS...WILL KEEP PTYPE IN THE FORM OF ALL SNOW FOR NOW. IF THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...QPF TOTALS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ALL REMAIN INDICATIVE OF A WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

Except that its ensembles are northwest. I tend to think there is only so far NW this can go, assuming it doesn't go negative tilt until it's past the Mississippi River. If it goes negative as it approaches the river, watch out NW trend.

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NEOH

NEOH

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Except that its ensembles are northwest. I tend to think there is only so far NW this can go, assuming it doesn't go negative tilt until it's past the Mississippi River. If it goes negative as it approaches the river, watch out NW trend.

Yeah. No question the nw trend is always in play. Buf is usually spot on with their forecasts so it will be interesting to see whay happens.

It sounds as though they are Indicating some things are not possible with the nam and gfs. Perhaps the red taggers can explain.

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Thundersnow12

Thundersnow12

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In your expert opinion, do you think we are close to maxing out the potential of the NW trend, or do you think the block could give way and allow this to track toward some of those NW solutions?

I think a track like the NAM and SREF is def a possiblility and the fact that the Euro ensemble mean is NW of the op as well as the 18z GFS mean/more members further NW than the 12z suite is something to keep a close eye on..

Anything is possible at this stage.

Here is the 18z GFS ensemble mean

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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I think a track like the NAM and SREF is def a possiblility and the fact that the Euro ensemble mean is NW of the op as well as the 18z GFS mean/more members further NW than the 12z suite is something to keep a close eye on..

Anything is possible at this stage.

I think there's some reason for optimism for Chicago proper. Even if the farthest north solutions don't pan out and the heavier band stays south, the lake factor may still be able to turn it into something respectable even though the parameters aren't jumping off the page.

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RCNYILWX

RCNYILWX

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I think there's some reason for optimism for Chicago proper. Even if the farthest north solutions don't pan out and the heavier band stays south, the lake factor may still be able to turn it into something respectable even though the parameters aren't jumping off the page.

Agreed, and regarding the farther north solutions, the ECMWF was a consistent in its farther south track with the last system and then even when it shifted north ~48 hrs out it ended up being a bit too far south. A stronger storm would likely be more nw such as the more amped up gefs and sref solutions because it would be able to pump heights ahead of it just a bit more which would be huge for the Chicago area. Possibly just 30-50 or so miles more n/w would get us in the game for a potentially significant synoptic snow along with additional lake contribution. 24 hours out with the last storm it looked like the models had settled on a south side of Chicago or KGYY track and it ended up being over the north side of Chicago.

Obviously with all this being said, things could go the other way with tonight's model runs, but the decent lake effect/lake enhancement set up is still liable to produce some accums for at least parts of the metro.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

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I am almost sure it will hit southeast Michigan and leave me here, fuming. It has been the same two tracks the past four years...it either moves around Lake Michigan and blasts WI or it misses just enough to the south and east that I barely get anything. I am not intentionally being a downer...these are just the part of the frustrating pattern this part of MI has been trapped in.

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AppsRunner

AppsRunner

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You think? Tough to tell at this point, but I'm thinking it'll either stay the course or may come a touch S/E. Despite the lessened confluence, the H5 s/w looks slightly less impressive.

Yeah if anything the H5 low is a bit south... energy in the Pacific is arriving faster which in turn lowers heights back to the west. It's possible it still goes NW due to the confluence lessening, but I'd bet that it stays relatively similar.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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Yeah if anything the H5 low is a bit south... energy in the Pacific is arriving faster which in turn lowers heights back to the west. It's possible it still goes NW due to the confluence lessening, but I'd bet that it stays relatively similar.

Might also be a timing issue too. Close 540 H5 low just like the 18z run at 60 hrs, just 50 miles further south.

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