michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 HPC weenie graphics. A bit further nw then i figured they would be. Some Chicago love.. Considering they supposedly discounted the nam the only other explanation would be the euro ensembles having a impact on their reasoning? That would be wonderful. A few days ago id have killed for a few inches...now its looking better, but I dont want to get too greedy...........yet. I want to wait until we can get SOMEWHAT more of a qpf consensus....and then do not forget about ratios. Unlike the 1st widespread winter storm of the season, as well as the more compact MN a few weeks back....low ratios shouldnt be an issue this. Or at least I wouldnt think so. Dendritic growth plays as much into ratios as temps do....so I think there is a LOT of stuff that needs ironing out before we can go bonkers crazy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Seriously though.. Good luck down that way! thanks...you too You know I'm just a weenie masochist. I'll stand spread eagle naked just waiting til the 00z mos each kick me square in the jewels before I fall to my knees in surrender. It's just how i roll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like they've shifted to the east a bit. P006 is actually a complete whiff to the right. None of the 12z individual GEFS members did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michigander Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Judging by the paper rolls I'd say the NAM is trying to compensate for something if you know what I'm saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 thanks...you too You know I'm just a weenie masochist. I'll stand spread eagle naked just waiting til the 00z mos each kick me square in the jewels before I fall to my knees in surrender. It's just how i roll LMAO!!! You crack me up! If it wasn't for you, I would have thrown my ipad out the window based on these model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like they've shifted to the east a bit. P006 is actually a complete whiff to the right. None of the 12z individual GEFS members did that. As a whole they're about the same, but definitely have noticed a bit of a NW shift in them as of the last couple days. Then again I'm on the record saying I don't trust them, so even though a couple of them look interesting even for me, I should stay consistent. Eastern solutions all the way, even though I want to buy into the NW trend this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 thanks...you too You know I'm just a weenie masochist. I'll stand spread eagle naked just waiting til the 00z mos each kick me square in the jewels before I fall to my knees in surrender. It's just how i roll meh.. We all are. I went to bed with the NAM lapping me up. Looks like they've shifted to the east a bit. P006 is actually a complete whiff to the right. None of the 12z individual GEFS members did that. Really? Considering how far west some of them are i'll say that is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like they've shifted to the east a bit. P006 is actually a complete whiff to the right. None of the 12z individual GEFS members did that. Not surprising. Model runs tonight will be very important... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I just wish to give a heads up to regional posters here that the main AW page has a thread with excellent discussion pertaining to both the svr and snow aspects of this oncoming system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 meh.. We all are. I went to bed with the NAM lapping me up. Really? Considering how far west some of them are i'll say that is a good thing. Yeah, but the 12z GEFS was even further west. They're still good, but just not as good. Notice how the 0.25" isohyet is now SE of WI at 18z, and the 0.50" is further east in MI and northern IN. Not a huge deal, but perceptible. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah, but the 12z GEFS was even further west. They're still good, but just not as good. Notice how the 0.25" isohyet is now SE of WI at 18z, and the 0.50" is further east in MI and northern IN. Not a huge deal, but perceptible. 18z 12z I'd say a lot of that has to do with some of the east solutions trending east, but some ensemble members are quite west, two or three of them enough to give me a significant event, which I have always thought was a stretch to begin with. Those same solutions have the low tracking into NE Indiana/NW Ohio, definitely a GLC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah, but the 12z GEFS was even further west. They're still good, but just not as good. Notice how the 0.25" isohyet is now SE of WI at 18z, and the 0.50" is further east in MI and northern IN. Not a huge deal, but perceptible. FYI, those are also contaminated with earlier precip from tomorrow's s/w (especially across MI). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Yeah, but the 12z GEFS was even further west. They're still good, but just not as good. Notice how the 0.25" isohyet is now SE of WI at 18z, and the 0.50" is further east in MI and northern IN. Not a huge deal, but perceptible. I think the increase in NE IL and NW IN will be due to lake enhancement. The remainder of the map looks nearly the same. EDIT: Whoops, was reading them backwards. I would expect the opposite, where the increase was in the 18z. You're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 FYI, those are also contaminated with earlier precip from tomorrow's s/w (especially across MI). Even comparing the 108 maps (which are devoid of contamination) the difference is still apparent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The truth is...we are trying to latch onto the model or models that give our location the most snow. Always happens this close to a storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The truth is...we are trying to latch onto the model or models that give our location the most snow. Always happens this close to a storm... Um, I don't think that's happening. Not for the bulk of us. Buckeye a bit, but he's doing so in jest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Um, I don't think that's happening. Not for the bulk of us. Maybe it's just me then Ha. Edit: Although I've kept pretty quiet on here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The truth is...we are trying to latch onto the model or models that give our location the most snow. Always happens this close to a storm... I think most of us just want to forecast. This is a website full of professional meteorologists, not the Accuweather Forums Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Even comparing the 108 maps (which are devoid of contamination) the difference is still apparent. Oh, yeah, agreed there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think most of us just want to forecast. This is a website full of professional meteorologists, not the Accuweather Forums I take it back...anyways, good luck everyone with this storm. I am personally rooting for a 60-100 mile shift east. (Not to much to ask) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 IWX waiting for tonight's model runs/ HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES THIS FAR OUT...CAN NOT RESOLVE THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. INITIAL THINKING IS THAT A WIDESPREAD 2-4" EVENT...WITH LOWEST AMOUNTS WEST/NW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF 4-6" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA. CONTEMPLATED A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS FCST ISSUANCE...BUT DECIDED TO DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO CAPTURE LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND POTENTIAL INCREASED CONFIDENCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Seriously though.. Good luck down that way! Harry---I can't believe you left out one of Buckeyes favorites----I ain't over till Buckeye pulls out the Brazilian :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think most of us just want to forecast. This is a website full of professional meteorologists, not the Accuweather Forums And weather gee,...err weeni... err hobbyists who find it prudent to do more reading than speaking...err typing.... Perhaps our best bet through here is the LES... which, after reading LOT's AFD seems to be a decent chance However, if the current storm being tracked continues a westward trend, we may get a bit more than just LES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like they've shifted to the east a bit. P006 is actually a complete whiff to the right. None of the 12z individual GEFS members did that. Geez look how many have snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Geez look how many have snow here. In your expert opinion, do you think we are close to maxing out the potential of the NW trend, or do you think the block could give way and allow this to track toward some of those NW solutions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not surprising. Model runs tonight will be very important... Actually the verification is what counts, but I see your point. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 In your expert opinion, do you think we are close to maxing out the potential of the NW trend, or do you think the block could give way and allow this to track toward some of those NW solutions? Did Milwaukee get snow from last week's system, or are you part of the snow hole with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Did Milwaukee get snow from last week's system, or are you part of the snow hole with me? 2-4" was basically the spread throughout the metro, and I got about 2" a couple days prior, so I can't really complain, but am looking forward to a storm that doesn't result in much mix or rain prior to the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Did Milwaukee get snow from last week's system, or are you part of the snow hole with me? The snow hole exists from about Waukegan on south. Still hanging onto the crusty 1" of snow on the ground! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice to see our whole sub forum getting blasted by storms. Congrats to the folks pointing at this timeframe being very active back in November. Looks like a threat for Detroit is finally looking good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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