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December 26-27 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier

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HPC weenie graphics. A bit further nw then i figured they would be.

Some Chicago love..

day3_psnow_gt_04.gif

Considering they supposedly discounted the nam the only other explanation would be the euro ensembles having a impact on their reasoning?

That would be wonderful. A few days ago id have killed for a few inches...now its looking better, but I dont want to get too greedy...........yet. I want to wait until we can get SOMEWHAT more of a qpf consensus....and then do not forget about ratios. Unlike the 1st widespread winter storm of the season, as well as the more compact MN a few weeks back....low ratios shouldnt be an issue this. Or at least I wouldnt think so. Dendritic growth plays as much into ratios as temps do....so I think there is a LOT of stuff that needs ironing out before we can go bonkers crazy lol.

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thanks...you too

You know I'm just a weenie masochist. I'll stand spread eagle naked just waiting til the 00z mos each kick me square in the jewels before I fall to my knees in surrender.

It's just how i roll

LMAO!!! You crack me up! If it wasn't for you, I would have thrown my ipad out the window based on these model runs.

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f72.gif

Looks like they've shifted to the east a bit. P006 is actually a complete whiff to the right. None of the 12z individual GEFS members did that.

As a whole they're about the same, but definitely have noticed a bit of a NW shift in them as of the last couple days. Then again I'm on the record saying I don't trust them, so even though a couple of them look interesting even for me, I should stay consistent. Eastern solutions all the way, even though I want to buy into the NW trend this time.

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thanks...you too

You know I'm just a weenie masochist. I'll stand spread eagle naked just waiting til the 00z mos each kick me square in the jewels before I fall to my knees in surrender.

It's just how i roll

meh.. We all are. I went to bed with the NAM lapping me up.

f72.gif

Looks like they've shifted to the east a bit. P006 is actually a complete whiff to the right. None of the 12z individual GEFS members did that.

Really? Considering how far west some of them are i'll say that is a good thing.

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meh.. We all are. I went to bed with the NAM lapping me up.

Really? Considering how far west some of them are i'll say that is a good thing.

Yeah, but the 12z GEFS was even further west. They're still good, but just not as good. Notice how the 0.25" isohyet is now SE of WI at 18z, and the 0.50" is further east in MI and northern IN. Not a huge deal, but perceptible.

18z

18zgfsensemblep72096.gif

12z

12zgfsensemblep72096.gif

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Yeah, but the 12z GEFS was even further west. They're still good, but just not as good. Notice how the 0.25" isohyet is now SE of WI at 18z, and the 0.50" is further east in MI and northern IN. Not a huge deal, but perceptible.

18z

18zgfsensemblep72096.gif

12z

12zgfsensemblep72096.gif

I'd say a lot of that has to do with some of the east solutions trending east, but some ensemble members are quite west, two or three of them enough to give me a significant event, which I have always thought was a stretch to begin with. Those same solutions have the low tracking into NE Indiana/NW Ohio, definitely a GLC.

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Yeah, but the 12z GEFS was even further west. They're still good, but just not as good. Notice how the 0.25" isohyet is now SE of WI at 18z, and the 0.50" is further east in MI and northern IN. Not a huge deal, but perceptible.

FYI, those are also contaminated with earlier precip from tomorrow's s/w (especially across MI).

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Yeah, but the 12z GEFS was even further west. They're still good, but just not as good. Notice how the 0.25" isohyet is now SE of WI at 18z, and the 0.50" is further east in MI and northern IN. Not a huge deal, but perceptible.

I think the increase in NE IL and NW IN will be due to lake enhancement. The remainder of the map looks nearly the same.

EDIT: Whoops, was reading them backwards. I would expect the opposite, where the increase was in the 18z. You're correct.

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IWX waiting for tonight's model runs/

HOWEVER GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES THIS

FAR OUT...CAN NOT RESOLVE THIS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. INITIAL

THINKING IS THAT A WIDESPREAD 2-4" EVENT...WITH LOWEST AMOUNTS

WEST/NW...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF 4-6" WITH LOCALLY

HIGHER AMOUNTS SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN

PORTION OF THE AREA. CONTEMPLATED A WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THIS

FCST ISSUANCE...BUT DECIDED TO DEFER TO THE NEXT SHIFT TO CAPTURE

LATEST MODEL TRENDS AND POTENTIAL INCREASED CONFIDENCE.

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I think most of us just want to forecast. This is a website full of professional meteorologists, not the Accuweather Forums

And weather gee,...err weeni... err hobbyists :snowing: who find it prudent to do more reading than speaking...err typing.... :santa:

Perhaps our best bet through here is the LES... which, after reading LOT's AFD seems to be a decent chance However, if the current storm being tracked continues a westward trend, we may get a bit more than just LES.

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