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December 26-27 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier

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Living in Central Ohio for 20 years I would agree with this statement. This system looks very much like several I have seen before where the low pressure center passes near the Ohio/WV border before jumping to the East Coast. The rain/snow line sets up NW of Columbus, and the greatest snowfall amounts end up from Indy to FWA/Lima and Toledo.

I won't concede completely until the 00z runs tonight....but this post is 100% spot on...

unfortunately. Yes, I could see an indy to toledo special on this very easily as well. I just want to see Dr. No say it first.

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Yeah it sucks being stuck in the middle. I am just hoping for a couple inches of lake effect as a consolation prize, to an otherwise lame December.

Yeah, I would be satisfied if I see an inch or so through Wednesday, however now the event later this week into the weekend looks to be trending SE as well. Hopefully that changes.

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Chicago with multiple chances next few days

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

332 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

.DISCUSSION...

332 PM CST

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN NEXT 4 DAYS APPEARS TO BE GETTING MORE ACTIVE

WITH CHANCES FOR MULTIPLE SNOW EVENTS IN THE OFFING OF VARYING

INTENSITIES FROM A FEW TENTHS ACCUMULATION UP TO POTENTIALLY 6

INCHES OR MORE WITH MODELS TRENDING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST WITH

WEDNESDAYS LOW.

MID-HI CLOUDS ALREADY SPILLING RAPIDLY EAST IN ADVANCE OF

APPROACHING INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE

THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE TOP OF THE SC DECK

THAT HAD ADVECTED SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLIER TODAY. AS

MOISTURE INCREASES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC

ZONE TIGHTENS... CONCERNED WE COULD SEE PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE

BREAK OUT... AND WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING... RESULT COULD BE A THIN

GLAZE ON UNTREATED OUTDOOR SURFACES. AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTING A

WIDESPREAD ENOUGH OF AN EVENT TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY... BUT LATER

SHIFTS WILL NEED TOO MONITOR CLOSELY AND INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD

CLOSELY MONITOR LATER FORESTS.

AS ENTIRE COLUMN MOISTENS THROUGH 700-725 MB INTO THE DAY MONDAY...

ALBEIT ONLY FOR A BRIEF TIME... AND STRONG ASCENT DEVELOPS IN

ADVANCE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER DIFFERENTIAL PVA... EXPECT

BRIEF DURATION LIGHT SNOW EVENT FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA NORTH

OF I-80 AND MORE SO NORTH OF I-88 WHICH COULD RESULT IN A LIGHT

ACCUMULATION. GIVEN LOW PWAT/H850 DEW POINTS AND ONLY BRIEF

MOISTENING PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS... EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW TO

LAST ONLY AN HOUR OR TWO OR THREE... WITH ONLY UP TO A HALF INCH OF

SNOW... IF THAT... WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS HAPPENING FROM I-88

AND EISENHOWER EXPWY NORTH TO THE WI BORDER.

BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH 800 MB FLOW THEN TURNS NORTHERLY BEHIND THE

SHORTWAVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUES/XMAS DAY. RESULTING FETCH DOWN THE

LENGTH OF THE LAKE COMBINED WITH 850 TEMPS AT -9/-10 DEG C WITH LAKE

SFC WATER TEMP STILL GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S PER LATEST

SATELLITE ESTIMATES... PRODUCING A DELTA T OF 16-17 DEG C... YIELDS

LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE LAKE

EFFECT SNOW... AND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE WIND TO THE LAKE...

COULD BE MORE OF A ENHANCED SINGLE BAND WHICH COULD BE A DECENT SNOW

PRODUCER FOR AREAS FROM CHICAGO DOWNTOWN THROUGH THE NORTH SHORE.

ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEGREE TO WHICH

CONVERGENCE ALONG EITHER SIDE OF A BAND IS ABLE TO HELP RAISE THE

CAPPING INVERSION... CURRENTLY DEPICTED BY THE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDS

TO BE ABOUT 5000-6000 FT. THE DURATION IN WHICH ANY BAND MAY

PERSIST WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN SNOW ACCUMULATION... WITH CURRENT

MODEL TRENDS HINTING AT A BANDED STRUCTURE SLOWLY PROPAGATING

WESTWARD DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TUESDAY.

IF THESE EVENTS WERE NOT INTERESTING ENOUGH... GFS/NAM/GEM LATEST

TRENDS TO BRING DEVELOPING SFC LOW PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO

VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL BRING YET A

THIRD SHOT AT POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATING SNOW IN AS MANY DAYS TO MUCH

OF CHICAGOLAND... WITH LESSOR CHANGES AS FAR WEST AS ROCKFORD. THIS

EVENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT OMINOUS FOR AREAS DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN

IN ILLINOIS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY

REMAINING PRESENT OVER THE LAKE INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH BECOMES

SUPERIMPOSED BY SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ISENTROPIC

LIFT IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION SECTOR OF THE LOW... WHICH WILL SERVE

TO RAISE THE CAPPING INVERSION AND HELP GENERATE A MORE PROLIFIC

PERIOD OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW INTO THE CHICAGO/NORTH SHORE NORTHWARD

INTO LAKE COUNTY, ILLINOIS.

MEANWHILE... AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY... MODELS

ARE HINTING AT A LOW REFORMING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS OVER THE MID

ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... BUT NOT BEFORE LAYING DOWN

A SWATH OF 6 INCH PLUS SNOW ACROSS A PORTION OF SOUTHERN IL INTO

CENTRAL IN. GIVEN CURRENT MODEL TRACKS... FAR SE COUNTIES OF THE

FORECAST AREA FROM PAXTON TO WATSEKA TO RENSSELAER WOULD SEE

ACCUMULATING SNOW AS WELL. ALL INTERESTS CERTAINLY SHOULD BE

ADVISED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF NW FLOW LAKE EFFECT SNOW INTO INDIANA

THURSDAY... RIDGING ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BRING QUIET

WEATHER THURS-FRI BEFORE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS BRINGS ANOTHER

CHANCE OF SNOW SAT INTO SUN.

WILL ISSUE SPS TO HIGHLIGHT/DISCUSS SNOW POTENTIAL NEXT FEW

DAYS.

ED F

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Ends up stronger than the NAM... doesn't really transfer even out to 78hr. Even with a stronger storm than the NAM it's cold sector precip towards back towards IL/IN/OH is pretty lame

Truth is probably somewhere in the middle. NAM has a tendency to be too wet, although I don't think it was too far off with the recent storm in WI.

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Not to go off topic or anything, but am I the only one who laughed when Paducah mentioned 6 inches of snow and impossible travel in the same sentence?

Are the people there smurfs or something? Pretty sure you can drive a smart car through 6" of snow as long as it's not icy underneath or drifting to 2 feet. What's with the hyperbole?

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6" events are fairly rare down there. Snow removal equipment is more sparse and folks aren't used to driving in it. Add in the wind/drifting and that's a very challenging driving environment, especially when snow rates are high. All of that makes a big difference. It might not be a big deal to a Minnesotan but it certainly is to a Kentuckian.

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DTX conservative, but makes some good points

2. SPLITTING OF THE LARGE UPPER CIRCULATION OFF THE COAST OF THE PAC

NW IS NOW UNDERWAY IN RESPONSE TO AGGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE RIDGING

BUILDING IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG PACIFIC WAVE THAT WAS CENTERED

NEAR 165W THIS AFTERNOON. THIS RIDGE AMPLIFICATION AND SUBSEQUENT

SPLIT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE DIRECTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT AND PROPAGATION OF A STRONG JET CORE THAT WILL DIG

AGGRESSIVELY TOWARD THE GULF COAST. THE SUBSEQUENT RESPONSE WILL BE

FOUND AT A CORRESPONDINGLY LOW LATITUDE, ALLOWING A LOW OF GULF

COAST ORIGIN TO RAPIDLY DEEPEN DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY, ENTRAINING

A GREAT DEAL OF MOISTURE AS IT DOES SO. SYSTEM RELATIVE PROGS

SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A HEALTHY WARM CONVEYOR CHARACTERIZED BY

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG SYSTEM

RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WRAPPING INTO THE COLD SECTOR BELOW

700MB. WHEN CONSIDERED ALONG WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING AND

A FULLY MATURE DEFORMATION ZONE, THERE IS REASONABLY HIGH

CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SWATH OF 6+" TO A PORTION

OF THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WED INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AS EXPECTED, THE 12Z GEM NOW DEPICTS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND FALLS

IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS/LOCAL WRF GLOBAL IN ITS DEPICTION OF A

SURFACE LOW TRACK ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS,

REACHING AT LEAST CINCINNATI BEFORE THE NECESSARY TRANSITION TO THE

EAST SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS GETS UNDERWAY. LOCALLY, THIS MEANS A

STORM-TRACK-SENSITIVE POTENTIAL FOR PART OF THE CWA TO FALL WITHIN

THE FAVORED SWATH FOR 6+". AS NOTED YESTERDAY, WHEN AND WHERE THAT

ACTUALLY OCCURS WILL DEPEND ON MULTIPLE FACTORS, NOT THE LEAST OF

WHICH WILL BE THE NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

BEFORE THE TRANSITION ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BEGINS. IT MAY ALSO BE

WORTH NOTING THAT THE RATHER LARGE SWATH OF COLD SECTOR SNOWFALL

DEPICTED BY THE NAM/GFS ARE FAIRLY TYPICAL OF THESE MODELS WHICH

LACK PARAMETRIZATION FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION. A MORE REALISTIC

EXPECTATION WOULD BE FOR A MORE TRUNCATED NORTHWESTERN EDGE, WHICH

ARGUES FOR A MORE CONSERVATIVE APPROACH TO THE FORECAST FOR NW

PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THIS TIME. A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL POINTS

WORTH JUST A MENTION AT THIS POINT ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM SECTOR

CONVECTION TO INTERFERE WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND FOR THE MODELED

VERSION OF WARM SECTOR CONVECTION TO FORCE AN ERRONEOUS EASTWARD

TENDENCY IN THE NWP ON ACCOUNT OF CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. REGARDING THE

LATTER, A QUICK LOOK THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC PV PANELS

REVEALS NOTHING OF NOTE AND SUGGESTS THAT NONE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE

ARE SUFFERING FROM SUCH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK/EASTWARD TRACK BIAS AT

THIS TIME.

THE PRIMARY CHANGE TO THE FORECAST IS THEREFORE NOTHING MORE THAN A

FINE TUNING OF POPS AND SNOWFALL TO REFLECT THE LATEST CONSENSUS AND

PROVIDE ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INHERITED FORECAST WHICH FAVORS A

STORM TRACK WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. AT THIS TIME RANGE, WILL NOT

GET CUTE WITH STORM TOTALS AND WILL MAINTAIN THE AFOREMENTIONED

CONSERVATIVE APPROACH ALONG THE NW EXTENT OF THE PROGGED SNOW

SHIELD. THE LATE-ARRIVING 12Z ECMWF IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT WITH THE

REST OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE IN THAT THE SURFACE LOW REACHES SOUTHERN

OHIO BEFORE ANY TRANSFER REALLY TAKES PLACE, AND ITS SURFACE FIELDS

MOST STRONGLY REFLECT CURRENT EXPECTATIONS GIVEN THE PRECEDING

DISCUSSION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CURRENTLY A CONSERVATIVE, BUT

STILL REALISTIC, SWATH OF 3-5" ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST 2/3 OF THE AREA

BETWEEN WED AND THURS MORNINGS.

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ILN

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

FOCUS IS ON THE WINTER STORM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE REGION AT MID

WEEK. VIGOROUS MID LEVEL S/W TO LIFT FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE

LOWER OH VLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND ACRS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. NUMERICAL

MODEL SOLNS CONTINUE TO SHOW SPREAD REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE

ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE WHICH LIFTS NE THRU THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. IN

GENERAL THE GFS DETERMINISTIC SOLNS HAVE BEEN THE FURTHEST WEST AND

THEREFORE BRING MORE WARM AIR INTO ILN/S FA. THE ECMWF SOLN HAS BEEN

MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST 12Z DETERMINISTIC RUN TRENDING A

LITTLE WEST AND THEREFORE ALLOWING A LTL MORE INTRUSION OF WARM AIR.

GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLN IS PLACED A LTL EAST OF ITS DETERMINISTIC

RUN.

HAVE TRENDED THE LATEST FCST TOWARD THE A SLIGHTLY MODIFIED (WARMER)

SOLN THAN 12Z ECMWF RUN GIVEN TRENDS AND CONSISTENCY.

HAVE SPREAD LKLY POPS IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN

BUMPED UP POPS TO CATEGORICAL EARLY WEDNESDAY.

USING AT TOP DOWN TECHNIQUE APPLIED TO MODIFIED ECMWF SOLN HAVE FAR

WEST CENTRAL OHIO (NORTHWEST OF DAYTON) STAYING ALL SNOW BUT HAVE A

MIX SPREADING INTO THE REMAINDER OF ILN/S FA AND RAIN SE OF I-71

DURING THE DAY ON WED. AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO THE SYSTEM...HAVE

ALL PRECIP CHANGE BACK TO SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE

POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE 6 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW AND SIGNIFICANT ICE.

AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE A STORM TOTAL 4 TO 6 INCH SNOW BAND IS

PSBL FROM EAST CENTRAL INDIANA THRU FAR W CNTRL OHIO. THERE WILL

LKLY BE A SHARP CUT OFF TO THE SE WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES ALONG AND JUST

WEST OF I-71 AND LESS THAN AN INCH SE OF I-71.

GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK...

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT IN THE HWO PRODUCT.

AS THIS WINTER STORM LIFTS NE WILL TAPER OFF SNOW EARLY ON THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC RIDGING TO BUILD IN PROVIDING DRY WX

CONDITIONS LATER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

MODEL SOLN DIFFERENCES REGARDING THE WEATHER SYSTEM NEXT WEEKEND.

PREV GFS WAS KEEPING PCPN TO OUR SOUTH BUT LATEST RUN BRINGS IN

PRECIP BUT IS WEAKER AND ALLOWS FOR LESS WARM AIR. ECMWF SOLNS HAVE

BEEN STRONGER AND ALLOW FOR MORE INITIAL WARM AIR INTRUSION. HAVE

SPREAD CHC POPS IN FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN CONT HIGH CHC POPS ON

SATURDAY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE SE HALF

AND KEPT ALL SNOW NW. SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE PSBL ON

SUNDAY WITH THE BEST CHC ACRS THE NORTH.

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6" events are fairly rare down there. Snow removal equipment is more sparse and folks aren't used to driving in it. Add in the wind/drifting and that's a very challenging driving environment, especially when snow rates are high. All of that makes a big difference. It might not be a big deal to a Minnesotan but it certainly is to a Kentuckian.

Topography makes a difference too. I'd like to see that smart car on an untreated 30 percent grade with switchbacks.

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Lol at the wrapping paper cardboard tube pic!

Special Weather Statement just put out by LOT:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

500 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-

240100-

WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK-

LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-IROQUOIS-FORD-

LAKE IN-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK...

WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO...

OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET...KANKAKEE...PONTIAC...

WATSEKA...PAXTON...GARY...VALPARAISO...MOROCCO...RENSSELAER...

FOWLER

500 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012 /600 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012/

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR UP TO THREE PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW

OVER THE NEXT 3-4 DAYS ACROSS THE AREA...

SNOW #1

WHERE... MAINLY NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS ALONG AND NORTH

OF I-88 AND THE EISENHOWER EXPRESSWAY.

WHEN... MONDAY DAYTIME.

HOW MUCH NOTHING TO A DUSTING UP TO A HALF INCH

SNOW #2

WHERE... CHICAGO - NORTH SHORE - LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS

WHEN... CHRISTMAS DAY AND EVENING.

HOW MUCH AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE... LOCALLY UP TO 3 BUT MOST WILL

SEE LESS.

SNOW #3

WHERE... MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF I-55...AND... CHICAGO -

NORTH SHORE - LAKE COUNTY ILLINOIS.

WHEN... LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

HOW MUCH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES.

SNOW #3 WILL TRANSITION TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHWEST

INDIANA WEDNESDAY NIGHT... BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TO THAT

REGION.

IN ADDITION TO SNOW... INCREASING WINDS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND

DRIFTING SNOW... ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE SNOW TUESDAY

AND WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOLIDAY AND POST HOLIDAY

TRAVELERS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES AND

POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.

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