Powerball Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 lol at OKC. How often do they see 2 White Christmases within 5 consecutive years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 i think it's either one strong primary or a euro-esque transfer solution. I think the nam hasn't made up its mind Agreed. Just given teh fact that the NAM is still outside of it's useful range, and that the Euro shows the transfer and the GFS moved towards a transfer scenario, I am leaning towards an earlier transfer. That might be just a bit of wishcasting though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 fun...or funny? it looks like it's trying in it's own confused way, to move towards the euro. I base this on the goofy way it tries to pop a secondary. The primary travels well into w. OH and pops a secondary in w.NC. if the primary makes it that far nw....there won't be a secondary. Either works... I enjoy seeing some of the crap it tries to pull and its sometimes good for a laugh. If it verifies then anybody from LOT to YYZ will have their signature storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 LOL... Well, I wish all of you a great snowstorm. As for me, I will truly be in the snow hole of the Great Lakes region. Un freakin real.... Haul that sucker north like I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Chicago is going to fall into that same snow hole. Yep. One N, one S. Alek's futility record continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 LOL... Well, I wish all of you a great snowstorm. As for me, I will truly be in the snow hole of the Great Lakes region. Un freakin real.... Well, you can come down here for some nice cold rain. OTOH I don't put too much faith in the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 have to wonder if if you'll see higher amounts than forecasted closer to the NAM given the moisture feed and possible banding. Interested to read LOT's AFD. Gonna have to watch how the convection behaves down south. If it becomes oriented in an unfavorable way then it could be a negative for snow totals. OTOH it could turn out to be a positive. Wonder if we'll get a NAM clown run that has like 20" here just like what happened immediately prior to 12/15/07. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 Amazing how much wetter the SREF is further northwest, also deeper DGZ looks to line up with the northwest half of the defo band. That's the total that the max member shows right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Considerable warm sector instability with this one. Transport of that unstable air above the frontal surface will make for some considerable localized convective enhancement on the front flank of the storm, especially early on in its life cycle. Could see some local jackpots of 12-15". Also a little concerned about convective feedback into the main vortex on this one. The 15Z SREF has certainly locked into step with previous runs and is further NW than the globals. In particular the ARW members seem to be skewing the averages a little too far to the NW, with the unrealistically flat, strung out portion of the NMM members offsetting some of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 That's the total that the max member shows right? Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Pretty wild too see the euro ensemble mean further nw vs the OP. Been awhile since i have seen that. Usually the ensemble mean has been less amplified/further se ( see last storm for example ) then the OP run. Ensemble mean is alot more juicier up here as well with over .50 QPF ( This line reaches Benton Harbor ) and over .75 in the eastern/se part of the state and a inch+ over towards SSC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z NAM still gives MDW .30" liquid so looking at atleast 3" in the LOT southeast 1/3 CWA if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Pretty wild too see the euro ensemble mean further nw vs the OP. Been awhile since i have seen that. Usually the ensemble mean has been less amplified/further se ( see last storm for example ) then the OP run. Ensemble mean is alot more juicier up here as well with over .50 QPF ( This line reaches Benton Harbor ) and over .75 in the eastern/se part of the state and a inch+ over towards SSC. any of the members good for northeast IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z RGEM. Doesn't look like it'd be vastly different than the consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z Euro ensemble mean Mean takes it from there to near Columbus and the eastcoast low takes over near DC which heads to Philly/NYC and eventually over top of Boston.. Thus stays a bit inland and or tracks along I95 itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Pretty wild too see the euro ensemble mean further nw vs the OP. Been awhile since i have seen that. Usually the ensemble mean has been less amplified/further se ( see last storm for example ) then the OP run. Ensemble mean is alot more juicier up here as well with over .50 QPF ( This line reaches Benton Harbor ) and over .75 in the eastern/se part of the state and a inch+ over towards SSC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Will be at my parents house in Decatur,Il. This storm has suddenly perked my interest ya I think it could get interesting here NAM puts this area in the 6-8" range which would be great.Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Considerable warm sector instability with this one. Transport of that unstable air above the frontal surface will make for some considerable localized convective enhancement on the front flank of the storm, especially early on in its life cycle. Could see some local jackpots of 12-15". Also a little concerned about convective feedback into the main vortex on this one. The 15Z SREF has certainly locked into step with previous runs and is further NW than the globals. In particular the ARW members seem to be skewing the averages a little too far to the NW, with the unrealistically flat, strung out portion of the NMM members offsetting some of that. uvvs = 15 -ubars/s along the WCB per 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 any of the members good for northeast IL? One goes to Ft Wayne ( sucker holds it's own up to Toronto ) and another just east of there. Majority go to near Columbus.. Some se of there and a few just nw of there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Verification of the 18z NAM would be great for areas of Southern Ontario, particularly in the Golden Horseshoe. Crippling snowstorm anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Impressive UVV signals off the NAM in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 LMK's preliminary call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I was going to ask, at the risk of being accused of trolling, but does that make any sense at all? I have never seen a primary go into Cincy and Dayton, then pop a secondary over the Carolina Mountains. To me, at least the surface appearance on the NAM made no sense to me. Living in Central Ohio for 20 years I would agree with this statement. This system looks very much like several I have seen before where the low pressure center passes near the Ohio/WV border before jumping to the East Coast. The rain/snow line sets up NW of Columbus, and the greatest snowfall amounts end up from Indy to FWA/Lima and Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z NAM says hold on a minute Chicago, you're still in the game!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Just like the last system teased me to the north/west, this system/lake effect looks to tease me just to the south/east. In Kenosha County, the forecast is there for about 3-5 inches of snow in the next few days for a combination of LES/NW edge of precip shield, with the focus from S Milwaukee County south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GRR now has snow ( 60% ) on Wed with accumulations of around 5" inches for here. Which yeah i'll take and run if that ends up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 GRR now has snow ( 60% ) on Wed with accumulations of around 5" inches for here. Which yeah i'll take and run if that ends up happening. DTX clearly taking the conservative approach comparatively, which I don't blame them for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Just like the last system teased me to the north/west, this system/lake effect looks to tease me just to the south/east. In Kenosha County, the forecast is there for about 3-5 inches of snow in the next few days for a combination of LES/NW edge of precip shield, with the focus from S Milwaukee County south. Yeah it sucks being stuck in the middle. I am just hoping for a couple inches of lake effect as a consolation prize, to an otherwise lame December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Does any one know the WSW criteria for IND? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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