YHM Supercell Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'll take what I can get. 4-6 inches would be fine. Who knows, we may have trouble getting even 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'll take what I can get. 4-6 inches would be fine. Who knows, we may have trouble getting even 4. 18z NAM and GFS were both improvements. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Oakland county wins again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's subtle, but it's going to do the trick up here just like with the NAM. All in all, around 0.66-0.80 qpf in the area. Similar to the Euro, slightly drier but its around 6-8/9 inches around their, which is probably the most common set of numbers on most of the models. 0z runs are what i'm more interested in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 All in all, around 0.66-0.80 qpf in the area. Similar to the Euro, slightly drier but its around 6-8/9 inches around their, which is probably the most common set of numbers on most of the models. 0z runs are what i'm more interested in. I wouldn't worry about the QPF verbatim. Overall this run of the GFS was drier in general, but the positioning of some key features improved a good deal. Yeah, 0z is huge. Again, we're seeing a lot of blips so far with the models. Gotta see if we can establish a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z NAM and GFS were both improvements. Good point. A shift 50 miles north would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Oakland county wins again! lol look at that downsloping in ENY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hey blackrock. The last 4 years at Muskegon - 148", 74", 94", 56". Sorry but I'm not crying in my beer for you. http://www.americanw...mplaint-thread/ Going by AVERAGES the only above normal one was 08-09 and well he was not living there back then. I believe 98" is the average there? I am surprised at the total for 2010-11though? I know that area did great with the blizzard ( GHD ) but don't recall much else? Considering his averages many would be crying worse if they had half their normal climo snowfall followed up by what has happened so far this winter there. Normal Dec snowfall there is 28.3" and for Nov it is 6.0! How much has fallen there? 5.3" i do believe is the total to date.. But yeah the complaint thread would be better suited for the complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Oakland county wins again! you better believe if OC gets more snow than me with this storm Ill be p*ssed. Just like you are getting more snow now when it was supposed to be DTW-south. But Im all for shifting the whole damn storm NW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's subtle, but it's going to do the trick up here just like with the NAM. Looks like it held onto the primary slightly longer. Good run for you. Writing seems to be on the wall here, as I watch every model run tick southeast...and more places to my southwest/west get eliminated from contention. Still holding on by the slimmest of margins, at the moment... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I wouldn't worry about the QPF verbatim. Overall this run of the GFS was drier in general, but the positioning of some key features improved a good deal. Yeah, 0z is huge. Again, we're seeing a lot of blips so far with the models. Gotta see if we can establish a trend. Yeah, the track and phasing is key, most important of all. QPF is more of a short term and observations sort of thing esp with deformation bands. 0z will be crucial as it will be fully sampled by then. But like you said, it was an improvement compared to the 12z NAM/GFS runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Oakland county wins again! Hehehehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, GFS is skimpy for much of this region compared to the NAM. I get a feeling a compromise of QPF/snowfall amounts would be best, maybe slightly closer to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow, GFS is skimpy for much of this region compared to the NAM. I get a feeling a compromise of QPF/snowfall amounts would be best, maybe slightly closer to the GFS. The NAM is usually generous! You know that! Looks like Alek is on the borderline for an inch per the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I've wondered this looking at the models, but would it be crazy to see some Lake Enhancement here in NW Ohio? Those winds are certainly very conducive for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like I only need a 50 mile shift to the south and Louisville could be in for a good snowfall. Somebody in the Louisville viewing area is going to get screwed with rain and 33 degrees. Either way, I think Louisville gets at least 2-3 inches of snow, maybe more. But, I'm going to hold my breath on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Through 30, GFS looks comparable to the 12z run. Maybe a hair south and a touch stronger with our closed 500 low over ARKLATEX Canuck, do you think my 2-4" call is still good? I'd hate to see us go lower than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I've wondered this looking at the models, but would it be crazy to see some Lake Enhancement here in NW Ohio? Those winds are certainly very conducive for it The same can be true for SEMI off of Lake Huron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NWS Directive on criteria - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005013curr.pdf Thanks. I think maybe Beau said PAH has never issued a blizzard warning? Interesting if it pans out. Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Thanks. I think maybe Beau said PAH has never issued a blizzard warning? Interesting if it pans out. Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk! Yes, this will truly be historic for them if it comes together as presently anticipated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The same can be true for SEMI off of Lake Huron Curious to hear from a local met . Whats your worst and best case scenario calls for DTW right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EvansvilleBlizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 evansville has gone mad about the blizzard watch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 DTX updated my forecast....Wed 2-4, Wed night 2-4! (OT, reached 2 inches of snowfall this evening) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schaefertax Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well looks like a white Christmas here in hazel park might sorry not to get off topic but 1 inch on the ground here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Curious to hear from a local met . Whats your worst and best case scenario calls for DTW right now? For DTW, worst case 2.5-3" best case the low doesn't transfer til late and we get enhancement off the lakes and end up with 8-12" personally right now is go 4-8" across the metro area. Best to the SE worst to the NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For DTW, worst case 2.5-3" best case the low doesn't transfer til late and we get enhancement off the lakes and end up with 8-12" personally right now is go 4-8" across the metro area. Best to the SE worst to the NW You still think YYZ is good for 4-8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Going by AVERAGES the only above normal one was 08-09 and well he was not living there back then. I believe 98" is the average there? I am surprised at the total for 2010-11though? I know that area did great with the blizzard ( GHD ) but don't recall much else? Considering his averages many would be crying worse if they had half their normal climo snowfall followed up by what has happened so far this winter there. Normal Dec snowfall there is 28.3" and for Nov it is 6.0! How much has fallen there? 5.3" i do believe is the total to date.. But yeah the complaint thread would be better suited for the complaining. Thanks, Harry. You are spot on in what you said. Apologies for irritating some of you. It comes from disappointment...something we have all experienced. (that, and I am laying on my back with the flu and nothing better to do) Have a great evening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You still think YYZ is good for 4-8"? Yes, I'd be completely shocked if you guys get less than 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I wanna see the 0z models but I'm starting to get a real good idea on what I think is going to happen here, map to come later this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No prob going OT guys....a white Christmas is hopefully just an appetizer for us! Good thoughts stebo. and to be fair...thats the range I gave my mom yesterday....2-12" LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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