AppsRunner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z nam HAMMERS indy...findlay...mansfield. Certain closer to cmh will have to deal with pingers. At least its the most northern solution so far. and coldest run so far. If that run verified with 60% of the QPF it showed I would be extremely happy. Interesting to see it pull at least a partial phase again... that's what most of us wanted to see rather than a cutoff sliding off into oblivion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah, they've got chafed thighs they ride the GGEM so hard. ROFL. 18z NAM is back to 7-10 inches with a couple of spots at 12 inches in Southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Does PAH and IND have differing blizzard criteria? Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk! Not that I know of. Blizzard is blizzard...different than an ordinary Winter Storm Watch. Looking at fcst soundings from the area, conditions look pretty similar in both areas in terms of snowfall rates and wind. I think both regions will either meet it or they won't...not 1 and 1. NWS Directive on criteria - http://www.nws.noaa.gov/directives/sym/pd01005013curr.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z NAMz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z NAMz Yeah that'll happen. Might as well lock it in. GFS will come in showing a 1/3 of those totals and 100 miles east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah, they've got chafed thighs they ride the GGEM so hard. Its a bold call but a majority of the models all show atleast over 4 inches with the lowest being around 6 inches. Then again they overestimated GHD 2011, so lets hope they underestimate this storm haha. 18z looks amazing and nice phasing. Tonights 0z and tomorrows 12z runs will be crucial, phasing and track is key. Any preliminary thoughts Canuck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z NAMz Ottawa gets crushed on this run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well canuck, you can join Alek and I for the "going for yet another futility-record" camp. I thought the 12Z were going to be decisive, but man, that was an understatement. The only thing going is that the critical jet streak in question won't be fully onshore until tonight, but if you wanted big snows, the 12Z definitely wasn't what you wanted to see as far as a trend is concerned. . Include me in that! Haven't seen crap this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Its a bold call but a majority of the models all show atleast over 4 inches with the lowest being around 6 inches. Then again they overestimated GHD 2011, so lets hope they underestimate this storm haha. 18z looks amazing and nice phasing. Tonights 0z and tomorrows 12z runs will be crucial, phasing and track is key. Any preliminary thoughts Canuck? Honestly, it seems with this storm very minor details in the mid and upper levels are going to have a huge impact on our sensible weather. Look at the 18z RGEM. Looks like it wants to drag the sfc low in NC at 18z Wed Even though I'm busting their chops, I think EC has it right at this point with the more cautious approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ROFL. 18z NAM is back to 7-10 inches with a couple of spots at 12 inches in Southern Ontario. 30 minutes from Hamilton * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS UP TO A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 SREF probs of a >100mb deep DGZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Honestly, it seems with this storm very minor details in the mid and upper levels are going to have a huge impact on our sensible weather. Look at the 18z RGEM. Looks like it wants to drag the sfc low in NC at 18z Wed Even though I'm busting their chops, I think EC has it right at this point with the more cautious approach. Yeah i agree. Any slight changes even within 24 hours can have a impact but i think by 12z runs tomorrow the picture will become more clearer. Tonights 0z runs will have this storm fully sampled so i rather wait to see those runs. Its a cautious approach, yes, at this point i think 3-5 inches is reasonable as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 30 minutes from Hamilton * TIMING...LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTALS UP TO A FOOT OR MORE POSSIBLE. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL CREATE HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...HIGH CONFIDENCE ON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. Thanks, saw that Buffalo had issued a Winter Storm Watch. Complete disagreement at the moment between EC and NWS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 . Include me in that! Haven't seen crap this winter! Hey blackrock. The last 4 years at Muskegon - 148", 74", 94", 56". Sorry but I'm not crying in my beer for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Winter Storm Watch now down to the I-70 corridor through Columbus for 4-6" plus ice. It's a start, but probably a bit conservative on snow considering trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sub_Zero Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ottawa gets crushed on this run! That would be a dream lol. We'll probably endup with a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 SREF probs of a >100mb deep DGZ The orientation on that looks too much east and west. Really swings it back into the St. Louis metro, which seems too far west and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 High end advisory for the DTX CWA? I find that a tad odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro has kept CLE in the jackpot zone for 5 straight days now. We should do pretty well here, maybe even wiping out our 11" deficit in one fell swoop. I'll give a first guess of 9.2" for CLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Any concerns on moisture transport? Or do the models take this into account? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Pretty massive spread on the SREF for the time range we're at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Pretty massive spread on the SREF for the time range we're at... And with significant implications. Pretty much an even spread from 3" to 12" for DTW among the 15z SREF members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Through 30, GFS looks comparable to the 12z run. Maybe a hair south and a touch stronger with our closed 500 low over ARKLATEX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Pretty massive spread on the SREF for the time range we're at... That is because the primary low transfers energy to the coastal low, both clusters are respectfully representing individual low pressure systems, they are not the same. The low in Northeast Kentucky begins to transfer to the coastal and that is why you see such a spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Definitely 25+ miles east with the sfc reflection at 42, but the ul low might try to hook a left up into the OV like the NAM did, just based on less confluence downstream and a bit more interaction with that plains s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 As i expected, i now am under a watch. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 406 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012 .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK. INZ058-059-066-OHZ045-046-051>056-060>062-070-071-250515- /O.EXA.KILN.WS.A.0002.121226T0600Z-121227T0600Z/ FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN- CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-BUTLER- WARREN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...BROOKVILLE... MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFIELD...LONDON... COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...HAMILTON...LEBANON 406 PM EST MON DEC 24 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. SLEET MAY MIX WITH THE SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 1 AM CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. * WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That is because the primary low transfers energy to the coastal low, both clusters are respectfully representing individual low pressure systems, they are not the same. The low in Northeast Kentucky begins to transfer to the coastal and that is why you see such a spread. You're right, I guess that map isn't the best way to show it. There is a large spread though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Latest HPC snow outlooks aren't looking to great for Southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's subtle, but it's going to do the trick up here just like with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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