snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 November 16-17, 2002 was a coastal and it dropped about 8" on the Big Smoke. Still hoping for at least 6-8" out of this, but after last winter, I'd run with 2-4"!! You're right! Forgot about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That is phasing nam. Excellent. maybe that's why it's colder here. track is very similar to 12z...just quicker it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 LAF still sneaks in on the 18z NAM. I hope the gradient isn't as tight as that map that cyclone posted. I am not biting.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'd have to go back and look where it was forecasted in the eastern thread but I know the WSW and everything was well southeast of here closer to you and highest amounts ended up being up near here. There was winter storm warnings at least to Lake County for that storm. Picked up 7.8" here. Warnings were lifted pretty quickly. Pretty much went from no headlines to a straight out warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Through 51, this might end up somewhat better locally. Some partial phasing with that nothing s/w over the Dakotas seemed to pull the main southern stream energy a little more to the north. NAM being NAM or something to watch out for, who knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 this SE trend needs to stop soon or else i'll go from being too far SE to bullseye to too far NW in the span of 2 days... still good here in Flora for now.... I sure would like to see this SE trend stop, if not go back just a few miles for comfort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like IND is sticking with winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The gradient from STL to southern IL is nasty on this NAM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z nam HAMMERS indy...findlay...mansfield. Certain closer to cmh will have to deal with pingers. At least its the most northern solution so far. and coldest run so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 LAF still sneaks in on the 18z NAM. I hope the gradient isn't as tight as that map that cyclone posted. lol, 8-10". But right blinker on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z NAM as it comes in looks a bit better for areas further north...so far. Will have to see when and how fast it transfers to the coast. Looks like we'll be on the good side of the 1.00" line. Probably some vacillating back and forth, but at least we've stopped the bleeding for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
npcougar Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm not going to get uptight over an 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The NAM is keeping the hope alive for Ontario. If the GFS shows a similar improvement for us then I don't think I'll be sleeping much tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The gradient from STL to southern IL is nasty on this NAM run. tell me about it.. sharp sharp gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like we'll be on the good side of the 1.00" line. Probably some vacillating back and forth, but at least we've stopped the bleeding for now. Yup, did you see EC's special wx statement. They don't seem overly concerned at the moment. Doubt we will see winter storm watches from them. Snowfall Warnings likely tomorrow night. But who knows EC has surprised everyone more than once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hell of a run for South Central Indiana. Cold run to. A lot of people win with this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 lol, 8-10". But right blinker on... Chad updated...now going 3-7", no sleet, would go higher but concerned about moisture being robbed from storms down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z nam HAMMERS indy...findlay...mansfield. Certain closer to cmh will have to deal with pingers. At least its the most northern solution so far. and coldest run so far. Good hit for us west of Cincy as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Chad updated...now going 3-7", no sleet, would go higher but concerned about moisture being robbed from storms down south. Seems more realistic now, but probably too high with amounts...all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yup, did you see EC's special wx statement. They don't seem overly concerned at the moment. Doubt we will see winter storm watches from them. Snowfall Warnings likely tomorrow night. But who knows EC has surprised everyone more than once. Hey davefootball! Didn't know you posted on AWx as well but should have known haha. Environment Canada Special Weather Statement going with 15cm at most in ON, 5-10 for Toronto: ==discussion==A low pressure system is expected to develop over Texas on Christmas day and then move northeastward to pass south of the Great Lakes region late in the day boxing day into Thursday. Such a storm track would place Southern Ontario on the cold side of the storm, with the potential for significant snowfall accumulations. Present indications suggest that the snow would start in the southwest during the day on boxing day, and then spread eastward to reach Eastern Ontario later in the evening. In addition, gusty northeast winds would result in local blowing snow reducing visibilities. Conditions should improve from west to east on Thursday. Current indications suggest that in areas from Lake Erie across Niagara as well as the St Lawrence Valley area the potential exists for snowfall amounts near the warning criteria of 15 cm in 12 hours. Further north from Toronto across to Ottawa snowfall amounts of 5 to 10 cm appear quite possible. The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as warnings may be required or extended. End Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like we'll be on the good side of the 1.00" line. Probably some vacillating back and forth, but at least we've stopped the bleeding for now. Interesting 18z NAM...it seems to start out a little SE of its 12z run, but then by the end qpf is even better for eastern MI. DTW back to 1"+. Not saying at all its a good TREND, but its good that the bleeding has stopped. gonna try and just hope for 3 inches here...get the ground solidly covered with no grass pickers to speak of. My original goal when this system first became apparent was just to get a few inches (at that point it looked like a complete miss to my southeast) then all the good runs, and you know the drill lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 DTX did not issue any watches/headlines/Special Weather Statements....They should issue the watch on Wed 8am and Warning at 12pm. ...I'm not sure what's wrong with issuing a watch, after all it's only a watch. Apparently if you issue a watch, that means you have to issue a warning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like IND is sticking with winter storm watch. Does PAH and IND have differing blizzard criteria? Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Does PAH and IND have differing blizzard criteria? Sent from my Galaxy S III on Tapatalk! Not that I know of. Blizzard is blizzard...different than an ordinary Winter Storm Watch. Looking at fcst soundings from the area, conditions look pretty similar in both areas in terms of snowfall rates and wind. I think both regions will either meet it or they won't...not 1 and 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 DTX did not issue any watches/headlines/Special Weather Statements....They should issue the watch on Wed 8am and Warning at 12pm. ...I'm not sure what's wrong with issuing a watch, after all it's only a watch. Apparently if you issue a watch, that means you have to issue a warning.. They always play conservative. Oh well lol. They did mention in their discussion that they are expecting a high-end advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 If this hasn't been posted yet, winter storm watches for all of the BUF CWA. Foot or more possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yup, did you see EC's special wx statement. They don't seem overly concerned at the moment. Doubt we will see winter storm watches from them. Snowfall Warnings likely tomorrow night. But who knows EC has surprised everyone more than once. They ride the GGEM pretty hard, and per that model, we'd stay under warning criteria. Even if it was a slam dunk for 15cm/12 or 25/24, they'll hold off any headlines until probably tomorrow afternoon, especially considering the timing has shifted this to a primarily Wednesday night storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z 4km NAM snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Here is the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hey davefootball! Didn't know you posted on AWx as well but should have known haha. Environment Canada Special Weather Statement going with 15cm at most in ON, 5-10 for Toronto: Yeah, they've got chafed thighs they ride the GGEM so hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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