jhamps10 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We have the blizzard watch: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 158 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012 ...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING... .A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ON THE NORTH AND WEST SIDE OF THE LOW TRACK...A SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY CREATE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>005-007-010-014-015- 018-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-251000- /O.CAN.KPAH.WS.A.0001.121226T0000Z-121226T1600Z/ /O.NEW.KPAH.BZ.A.0001.121226T0000Z-121226T1800Z/ JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON-POPE- HARDIN-ALEXANDER-PULASKI-MASSAC-GIBSON-PIKE-POSEY-VANDERBURGH- WARRICK-SPENCER-FULTON-HICKMAN-CARLISLE-BALLARD-MCCRACKEN- LIVINGSTON-CRITTENDEN-UNION KY-WEBSTER-HENDERSON-PERRY MO- BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU-WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD- SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI-NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION... MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO... CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN... JONESBORO...VIENNA...GOLCONDA...ELIZABETHTOWN...CAIRO... MOUND CITY...METROPOLIS...FORT BRANCH...PETERSBURG...POSEYVILLE... EVANSVILLE...BOONVILLE...ROCKPORT...HICKMAN...CLINTON... BARDWELL...WICKLIFFE...PADUCAH...SMITHLAND...MARION... MORGANFIELD...DIXON...HENDERSON...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL... CAPE GIRARDEAU...PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF... BLOOMFIELD...SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID 158 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS: THE LOCATION OF THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL BE CRITICAL FOR DETERMINING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. BASED ON THE CURRENT EXPECTED STORM TRACK...THE RAIN SNOW LINE WILL EXTEND FROM AROUND NEW MADRID MISSOURI...NORTHEAST ACROSS PADUCAH KENTUCKY...TO AROUND EVANSVILLE INDIANA. SNOWFALL AROUND ONE FOOT IS QUITE POSSIBLE WHERE THE PRECIPITATION IS ALL SNOW. NEAR THE RAIN SNOW LINE...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE MUCH LESS CERTAIN. DUE TO POTENTIAL ERRORS IN THE FORECAST STORM TRACK...PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS. * WINDS: WINDS ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 25 MPH...WITH FREQUENT GUSTS FROM 35 TO 45 MPH. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. * TIMING: THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE BETWEEN 5 AM AND 10 AM ON WEDNESDAY. * IMPACTS: BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA. SHOULD THE WATCH BE UPGRADED TO A BLIZZARD WARNING...EXPECT TRAVEL TO BECOME VERY DIFFICULT OR IMPOSSIBLE. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD MAKE ROADS IMPASSABLE, WHITEOUT CONDITIONS MAY CREATE A LIFE THREATENING SITUATION FOR THOSE VENTURING OUTDOORS. * OTHER IMPACTS: THE HEAVY WET SNOW AND STRONG WINDS MAY BRING DOWN SOME TREES AND POWER LINES. IN ADDITION...SHOVELLING HEAVY WET SNOW HAS CAUSED HEART ATTACKS...BACK PROBLEMS...AND OTHER ISSUES IN PAST WINTER STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 maps from NARR of the 1/31-2/1/08 event. Stronger looking vort though. http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us0201.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We were out of it by this point with March 2008. I'd be pretty stunned if this ends up being a whiff, but I guess never say never in weather. Well, we were really never "in it" outside a few stray runs...but point taken. Trend with this one may not be our friend right now, but I'm not saying whiff. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hey Chicago can you add JXN and TOL to the list! Thanks! Great HPC graphic too! Chicago Storm is your guy for Euro text data. I'm sure he'll see this and add them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 maps from NARR of the 1/31-2/1/08 event. Stronger looking vort though. How far north did that one trend in the last 48-60 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 How far north did that one trend in the last 48-60 hours? I'd have to go back and look where it was forecasted in the eastern thread but I know the WSW and everything was well southeast of here closer to you and highest amounts ended up being up near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Chicago Storm is your guy for Euro text data. I'm sure he'll see this and add them. Ops! Ha thanks for the correction! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z NAM isn't going to be jolly for a lot of us outside of Buckeye's realm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Careful, it is slower. Think a GFS track with better dynamics. It lost its closed H5 circulation, which I can't imagine is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It lost its closed H5 circulation, which I can't imagine is a good thing.ya not looking good for a lot of people parts of indiana and Ohio could be fine thoughSent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 maps from NARR of the 1/31-2/1/08 event. Stronger looking vort though. http://www.meteo.psu...2008/us0201.php Look towards the ne. Was nothing to block that from coming north. Ofcourse the models COULD be wrong this go around but i am not feeling it. Did the models leading up to that show any possible blocking like this? If you can recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Finally closes off the H5 low at 36hrs... a bit stronger and a touch NE through 36 if I'm seeing it correctly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z NAM looks a tad stronger but farther south with the precip shield so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It lost its closed H5 circulation, which I can't imagine is a good thing. That and it comes into Texas further south as well. Not good for those on the nw line.. That crap ( block of sorts ) is still alive and well just to the ne of it. That will not allow it to come that far nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ops! Ha thanks for the correction! You can also get Euro data here - http://www.yr.no/place/United_States/Indiana/Kokomo/long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 SLP location isn't completely different... actually may be a hair stronger and east, but the precip shield looks completely different. Gets ugly in MO and probably LAF down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Winter storm watch CLE, entire CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Look towards the ne. Was nothing to block that from coming north. Ofcourse the models COULD be wrong this go around but i am not feeling it. Did the models leading up to that show any possible blocking like this? If you can recall. I don't remember but I'll have to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Too bad the ul pattern across western NOAM is so chaotic. A nice longwave ridge centered across the Rockies and there'd be no telling how awesome this could have ended up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The extreme cutoff on the NW fringe almost reminds me of 12/1/06. Could go from heavy amounts to barely anything in a few counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hoosierwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 WSW for Orange and Dubois counties in LMK CWA. This butts up against Blizzard Watch for PAH CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Too bad the ul pattern across western NOAM is so chaotic. A nice longwave ridge centered across the Rockies and there'd be no telling how awesome this could have ended up. Our problem ( atleast out this way ) is the crap just to your ne. Can thank todays lead wave ( or whatever you wish to call it ) for it. Nothing can come nw as long as there is something to the n/ne blocking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That is phasing nam. Excellent. There does seem to be a little more interaction with that little kink in the flow over the northern Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hey Chicago can you add JXN and TOL to the list! Thanks! Great HPC graphic too! Chicago Storm is your guy for Euro text data. I'm sure he'll see this and add them. JXN: WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -5.9 1015 74 95 0.04 546 534 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.4 -8.3 1015 84 95 0.22 543 532 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.9 -8.2 1015 85 82 0.07 544 532 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.8 -7.7 1018 88 74 0.02 546 532 TOL: WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.5 -5.3 1012 81 97 0.17 546 537 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.9 1012 88 98 0.39 543 534 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.9 1013 86 89 0.06 544 533 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.6 -8.6 1016 86 80 0.01 546 534 THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.3 -5.8 1018 78 46 0.01 549 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 LAF still sneaks in on the 18z NAM. I hope the gradient isn't as tight as that map that cyclone posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hey Chicago can you add JXN and TOL to the list! Thanks! Great HPC graphic too! Here ya go JXN: WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -5.9 1015 74 95 0.04 546 534 THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.4 -8.3 1015 84 95 0.22 543 532 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.9 -8.2 1015 85 82 0.07 544 532 THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.8 -7.7 1018 88 74 0.02 546 532 TOL: WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.5 -5.3 1012 81 97 0.17 546 537 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.9 1012 88 98 0.39 543 534 THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.9 1013 86 89 0.06 544 533 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 18z NAM as it comes in looks a bit better for areas further north...so far. Will have to see when and how fast it transfers to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 SLP location isn't completely different... actually may be a hair stronger and east, but the precip shield looks completely different. Gets ugly in MO and probably LAF down the road. Lol wow St Louis never can catch a break last weeks storm to the NW and this weeks to the SE Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ?? I don't know what you're getting at. Aside from March 4-5, 2001, I can't think of a single coastal system that's been that wet around here. And with the March 2001 storm, the mid level center was situated in the GLs, rather than the OV as progged with this one. November 16-17, 2002 was a coastal and it dropped about 8" on the Big Smoke. Still hoping for at least 6-8" out of this, but after last winter, I'd run with 2-4"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You can also get Euro data here - http://www.yr.no/pla...okomo/long.html Thanks, that's helpful but I was looking for the 850 temps too! Appreciate the help though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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