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December 26-27 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier

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It's definitely been consistent. No 0.50" to 2.00" oscillations like the gd NAM. Still...I feel like if I buy in I'm letting the inner weenie take the reins.

I'd side with consistency.

Problem is the NAM throws out its weenie solutions outside 48 hours, and you have no choice but to feel a little letdown when that goes away or is refuted by every other model in the world. I'm guilty of it.

Alas, this isn't nothing but a 2-5" storm for MBY...though I will remain skeptical until game time.

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I'd side with consistency.

Problem is the NAM throws out its weenie solutions outside 48 hours, and you have no choice but to feel a little letdown when that goes away or is refuted by every other model in the world. I'm guilty of it.

Alas, this isn't nothing but a 2-5" storm for MBY...though I will remain skeptical until game time.

Better then just flurries IF that. ;)

Gonna be a LONG winter.. And i don't mean that in a good way..

Anyways.. Good luck down that way and out towards Detroit/Ohio. :)

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I'd side with consistency.

Problem is the NAM throws out its weenie solutions outside 48 hours, and you have no choice but to feel a little letdown when that goes away or is refuted by every other model in the world. I'm guilty of it.

Alas, this isn't nothing but a 2-5" storm for MBY...though I will remain skeptical until game time.

It wasn't the NAM that got to me. That was always complete and absolute BS. The GFS being AOA 1.00" for about 5 or 6 runs started to get me complacent. Now that it's trended downward, I've become a bit anxious about this whole storm. Average what the 12z models are spitting out, I can live with that. What I'm dreading is the "step down" scenario where each subsequent model run shifts the storm a little further SE until it's a complete non-event. That's why, even a small bump to the NW at either 18 or 0z would go a long way to allay my fears.

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It wasn't the NAM that got to me. That was always complete and absolute BS. The GFS being AOA 1.00" for about 5 or 6 runs started to get me complacent. Now that it's trended downward, I've become a bit anxious about this whole storm. Average what the 12z models are spitting out, I can live with that. What I'm dreading is the "step down" scenario where each subsequent model run shifts the storm a little further SE until it's a complete non-event. That's why, even a small bump to the NW at either 18 or 0z would go a long way to allay my fears.

One more "solid" move east and I'm looking at filtered sun. Shades of March 2008.

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The University of Illinois WRF ensembles seemed to do pretty good with the last system. Worth keeping an eye on IMO.

Looks pretty good for LAF/INDY to DTW/TOL.

http://rt.atmos.uiuc.edu/

Nice link. Some of the WRF models showing the lake effect a bit better.

NAM and particularly the GFS is useless when it comes to picking up small scale features.

---

Sounds like Skilling's RPM model is further NW!

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uhhh no.

I guess I just imagined all your post with the snowy GFS ensembles, SREF, NAM, LOT's several inches, etc. No biggie and I appreciate all your maps when you are weeniering out.. we all up here we're hoping for a long shot miracle. DR No wins again up here.

Merry Christmas All.. Off to the outlaws.

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I guess I just imagined all your post with the GFS ensembles, SREF, NAM, LOT's several inches, etc. No biggie and I appreciate all your maps when you are weening out.. we all up here we're hoping for a long shot miracle. DR No wins again up here.

Merry Christmas All.. Off to the outlaws.

Merry Christmas man. Same to everyone else as well. :)

No miracles in these parts when it comes to snow.. ;)

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Dude.. This thing is not coming nw. I'll bet anything on that. Just relax. :)

Actually wouldnt be surprised if it does. If i recall correctly the last storm was about 20 or so miles N of where it was modeled? Originally had the low going through GYY but ended up on the north side of chicago instead. It might not be a bad thing that the a few of the hi res models which can pick up on things the gfs/etc cannot, are showing a further NW and more wet soln. I have to wonder if the storm will bring up more moisture from the gulf, too.

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Could you add ORD and MKE plz?

Poor t-snow got worked over by the gfs and nam.

You want your weenie 0.02" of LES? J/k, I've been watching this storm because I want to see what happens to big cities like STL, IND, and DET. Looks like IND has the best chance with this storm, hopefully the next one (Friday into the weekend) trends NW because this one is trending slightly weaker and SE.

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You want your weenie 0.02" of LES? J/k, I've been watching this storm because I want to see what happens to big cities like STL, IND, and DET. Looks like IND has the best chance with this storm, hopefully the next one (Friday into the weekend) trends NW because this one is trending slightly weaker and SE.

That's not the only reason why you were watching.. Can't BS a weenie.. we were hoping to sneak out a inch or two so we were watching every model run still.

The storm Friv started a thread from the get go looked even more of a long shot up here than this one IMO. Maybe eastern lakes/OV can sneak something decent out.

Merry Christmas, Bro...

Good luck, Harry.. Just a little tick back north and you have something pretty respectable especially for this Dec. Wife is going to have my weenie off if I don't get off this dam PC... Serious addict.

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That's not the only reason why you were watching.. Can't BS a weenie.. we were hoping to sneak out a inch or two so we were watching every model run still.

The storm Friv started a thread from the get go looked even more of a long shot up here than this one IMO. Maybe eastern lakes/OV can sneak something decent out.

Merry Christmas, Bro...

Good luck, Harry.. Just a little tick back north and you have something pretty respectable especially for this Dec. Wife is going to have my weenie off if I don't get off this dam PC... Serious addict.

I hear u about the wife. Two days ago mine said, "Are you going to stare at your ipad all weekend." To that I answered yes and told her I have many friends that are addicts too! LOL

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PAH afternoon afd. I wonder if IND will pull the trigger since similar conditions should happen farther northeast.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY

147 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY) ISSUED AT 128 PM CST MON DEC 24 2012

LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS CONVERGING ON A LOW TRACK THAT BRINGS A POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING SNOWSTORM TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FULL BLOWN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE STRONGLY INDICATED BY THE 12Z GFS IN MUCH OF THE CURRENT WATCH AREA. THE GFS HAS BEEN QUITE CONSISTENT SO FAR...AND STILL REPRESENTS A CONSENSUS SOLUTION. THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND CLOSER TO THE GFS. THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION TAKES A SURFACE LOW FROM NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ACROSS MID TENNESSEE CHRISTMAS NIGHT...THEN INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SOUTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE MID LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS ONLY SLIGHTLY DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE LOW TRACK IN THE 12Z GFS.

THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION PLACES THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND ASSOCIATED HEAVY QPF OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS...THE TWO CRITERIA ARE VISIBILTY AND WINDS. VERY INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID LEVEL FORCING AND WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TAKE CARE OF THE VISIBILITY CRITERIA. THOUGH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL NOT BE ESPECIALLY DEEP...THE MODELS DEPICT A TIGHT GRADIENT THAT WILL RESULT IN STRONG WINDS. LOOKING AT GUST POTENTIAL IN BUFKIT...THE 06Z GFS MIXING ALGORITHM INDICATED GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM IS MORE MARGINAL FOR WIND GUSTS MEETING BLIZZARD CRITERIA...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH THAT AN UPGRADE TO A BLIZZARD WATCH OR WARNING APPEARS NECESSARY.

THE RAIN/SNOW LINE IS STILL THE CRUX OF THE PROBLEM THIS FORECAST CYCLE. BASED ON A BLEND OF THERMAL PROFILES FROM THE NAM AND GFS...THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE KEVV/KPAH CORRIDOR FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT. GIVEN THE INTENSITY OF THE PRECIP RATES...EVEN A SHORT DURATION OF SNOW WOULD RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION. IT APPEARS THE SNOWFALL GRADIENT WILL BE RATHER TIGHT...AND PLACEMENT OF THE GRADIENT IS STILL IN FLUX. FURTHER MODEL RUNS WILL NARROW DOWN THE PLACEMENT OF THE GRADIENT. WHERE PRECIP IS MOSTLY SNOW IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND SE MISSOURI...MODEL QPF EASILY SUPPORTS A FOOT OF SNOW. THUNDER WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF PRECIP. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THIS WILL BE A VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY WET SNOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE POWER OUTAGES.

THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM EARLIER THINKING. RAIN OR A MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN WILL SPREAD UP FROM THE SOUTH LATE ON CHRISTMAS DAY...POSSIBLY AS FAR NORTH AS KPAH/KCGI BY EVENING. THE TIMING OF THE HEAVIEST PRECIP APPEARS TO BE IN THE 03Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. PRECIP SHOULD WIND DOWN ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED JUST A LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE SYSTEM. WINTER HEADLINES WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

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I hear u about the wife. Two days ago mine said, "Are you going to stare at your ipad all weekend." To that I answered yes and told her I have many friends that are addicts too! LOL

I hear you both....I'll have to sneak in the bathroom tonite at the "outlaws" (as bowme calls 'em), to see if this threat continues to be legit. Hopefully ncep isn't slow tonite...they're gonna all think I have a case of the runs.

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One run of the Euro for LAF was clearly whacked. Other than that, can't argue with the consistency.

0z yesterday: 0.36"

12z yesterday: 0.34"

0z today: 0.51"

12z today: 0.36"

Hey Chicago can you add JXN and TOL to the list! Thanks! Great HPC graphic too!

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