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December 26-27 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier

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Don't think I can remember a time where a storm started southeast, went northwest and the fully came back to its original (more or less) positioning. Usually when Columbus loses a snow event, it's gone for good. Though the last few years, it has gotten pretty lucky vs average climo.

It's been a different progression on the models, that's for sure. In the last 48 hours, I've gone from being in/near the sweet spot, to now hoping I get more than clouds. And if we go back even farther out to the day 6-7 range, some were taking it up over LAF or even ORD on a few runs.

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12z ECMWF Text List

YYZ:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.8 -5.6 1018 72 95 0.04 548 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.3 -5.4 1014 84 100 0.27 544 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.8 -8.2 1014 87 98 0.46 541 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -5.0 -8.6 1015 80 89 0.07 541 530
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -6.2 -7.9 1017 85 76 0.02 544 530

Only lost a single tenth of an inch. That's weird. Assuming the fundamentals of the storm remain the same, weaker primary, quicker transfer to a coastal, I'm going to have side with the drier GGEM/NCEP models. Just based on storm climatology around here.

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Don't think I can remember a time where a storm started southeast, went northwest and the fully came back to its original (more or less) positioning. Usually when Columbus loses a snow event, it's gone for good. Though the last few years, it has gotten pretty lucky vs average climo.

this x 100 /\

the only time that might have happened was with the march '08 storm. I believe at one point it was a chicago special

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Only lost a single tenth of an inch. That's weird. Assuming the fundamentals of the storm remain the same, weaker primary, quicker transfer to a coastal, I'm going to have side with the drier GGEM/NCEP models. Just based on storm climatology around here.

LOL off course you are

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Only lost a single tenth of an inch. That's weird. Assuming the fundamentals of the storm remain the same, weaker primary, quicker transfer to a coastal, I'm going to have side with the drier GGEM/NCEP models. Just based on storm climatology around here.

I calculated over an inch of QPF. Must have done something wrong?

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12z ECMWF Text List

STL:

WED 06Z 26-DEC -0.7 -4.3 1016 68 81 0.01 547 534
WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.2 1015 67 85 0.02 545 533

PAH:

WED 00Z 26-DEC 2.8 0.5 1014 68 83 0.01 553 541
WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.9 -0.6 1006 91 100 0.35 548 543
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.2 -5.4 1005 89 98 0.50 540 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.2 -6.4 1013 78 77 0.28 546 536

DEC:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.6 -4.7 1015 68 89 0.01 546 534
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.5 -5.1 1015 67 92 0.03 545 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.3 -7.1 1019 68 28 0.01 549 534

VPZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.7 -4.9 1016 68 100 0.02 545 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.4 -7.6 1017 79 95 0.05 545 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.6 -6.9 1018 78 52 0.01 548 534 

LAF:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.0 -4.6 1014 74 96 0.01 546 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -3.9 1012 84 100 0.24 544 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.3 -7.7 1016 84 78 0.11 546 533

IND:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -1.9 1010 80 98 0.13 547 539
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.8 1009 86 99 0.44 542 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -8.6 1014 86 64 0.10 545 534

BMG:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.6 -0.9 1015 70 82 0.01 551 539
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -2.0 1007 86 99 0.32 546 540
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.1 -5.4 1008 85 98 0.40 541 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.2 -8.7 1014 84 60 0.05 546 535

OKK:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -4.0 1014 76 99 0.02 547 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.0 -5.2 1011 85 99 0.26 543 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -8.6 1014 85 75 0.20 544 533

FWA:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.9 -5.7 1011 84 97 0.21 544 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.5 1013 84 91 0.22 543 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.8 -8.1 1016 84 67 0.01 546 534 

MKG:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.5 -5.3 1019 73 91 0.01 544 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.0 -6.2 1020 77 93 0.01 545 530

GRR:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.6 -6.0 1018 79 98 0.05 544 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.2 -6.3 1018 79 89 0.02 545 531

BTL:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.7 -6.1 1016 69 91 0.02 545 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.4 -8.1 1016 82 97 0.13 544 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.4 1017 82 83 0.03 545 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.3 -6.4 1019 78 62 0.01 547 532

MOP:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.7 -6.2 1019 80 95 0.03 544 529
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.8 -6.0 1018 84 96 0.04 544 530
THU 12Z 27-DEC -6.4 -6.4 1020 84 83 0.01 545 530

PTK:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.4 -5.8 1017 71 84 0.01 547 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.6 1015 82 100 0.23 544 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.9 -7.9 1014 86 93 0.15 543 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.1 -7.5 1016 88 79 0.04 545 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.5 -6.4 1018 79 59 0.01 547 533

DTW:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.2 1015 76 98 0.07 546 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.8 1014 86 100 0.35 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -7.7 1013 86 91 0.12 543 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.9 1016 86 78 0.03 545 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.7 -6.6 1017 78 60 0.01 548 534

DET:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.0 -5.3 1016 73 98 0.04 547 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.5 1014 86 100 0.36 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.5 1013 86 92 0.17 543 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -7.9 1015 86 74 0.04 544 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.2 -7.0 1017 76 64 0.01 547 534

TDZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.0 -5.0 1011 79 97 0.20 546 537
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -7.9 1011 90 97 0.46 543 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.8 1013 87 90 0.07 543 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -8.6 1016 86 83 0.02 546 534
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.7 -6.3 1018 79 50 0.01 549 535 

DAY:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 -0.4 1010 84 100 0.27 550 542
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -3.3 1005 91 87 0.57 543 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -5.3 1008 91 57 0.08 543 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -7.6 1013 89 68 0.02 546 536
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.6 -7.7 1018 87 43 0.01 550 536

HAO:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.6 -0.8 1018 69 76 0.01 553 539
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.5 -0.6 1007 89 100 0.40 550 544
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.1 -2.4 1004 88 38 0.39 542 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.4 -5.0 1008 89 65 0.05 543 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.7 1014 85 55 0.01 548 537

CMH:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.9 -0.1 1012 82 100 0.21 552 542
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -2.8 1005 89 100 0.56 545 540
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.3 -3.2 1005 89 92 0.14 542 538
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.0 -6.9 1009 91 79 0.01 544 537
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -8.5 1016 88 69 0.01 548 536

CLE:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -3.1 1012 86 100 0.26 548 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.0 -5.7 1009 90 98 0.51 543 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.3 -6.3 1008 89 90 0.14 542 536
THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.8 -8.2 1013 87 79 0.06 544 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.4 -8.7 1016 79 64 0.02 547 534
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -0.7 -8.8 1019 82 33 0.01 551 536
FRI 06Z 28-DEC -2.7 -5.6 1020 85 8 0.01 552 536

YKF:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -5.5 -5.2 1017 69 99 0.07 547 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -6.5 -4.7 1013 84 100 0.29 543 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -7.1 -8.1 1014 86 98 0.27 541 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.6 -8.6 1015 74 79 0.04 542 530

YYZ:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.8 -5.6 1018 72 95 0.04 548 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.3 -5.4 1014 84 100 0.27 544 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.8 -8.2 1014 87 98 0.46 541 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -5.0 -8.6 1015 80 89 0.07 541 530
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -6.2 -7.9 1017 85 76 0.02 544 530

Could you add ORD and MKE plz?

Poor t-snow got worked over by the gfs and nam.

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Only lost a single tenth of an inch. That's weird. Assuming the fundamentals of the storm remain the same, weaker primary, quicker transfer to a coastal, I'm going to have side with the drier GGEM/NCEP models. Just based on storm climatology around here.

Euro QPF verifies the best. Granted this is for the Midwest region...but just sayin'. :)

m3_72h_mdw.gif

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It's been a different progression on the models, that's for sure. In the last 48 hours, I've gone from being in/near the sweet spot, to now hoping I get more than clouds. And if we go back even farther out to the day 6-7 range, some were taking it up over LAF or even ORD on a few runs.

I'm gonna hold out hope for a bump nw on later runs. And conceptually, I can't remember many (any?) scenarios where we don't make out well with a primary low into KY, which may not be the thing to hang your hat on but it helps me feel a little better.

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12z ECMWF Text List

STL:

WED 06Z 26-DEC -0.7 -4.3 1016 68 81 0.01 547 534
WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.2 1015 67 85 0.02 545 533

PAH:

WED 00Z 26-DEC 2.8 0.5 1014 68 83 0.01 553 541
WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.9 -0.6 1006 91 100 0.35 548 543
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.2 -5.4 1005 89 98 0.50 540 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.2 -6.4 1013 78 77 0.28 546 536

DEC:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.6 -4.7 1015 68 89 0.01 546 534
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.5 -5.1 1015 67 92 0.03 545 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.3 -7.1 1019 68 28 0.01 549 534

VPZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.7 -4.9 1016 68 100 0.02 545 532
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.4 -7.6 1017 79 95 0.05 545 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.6 -6.9 1018 78 52 0.01 548 534 

LAF:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.0 -4.6 1014 74 96 0.01 546 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -3.9 1012 84 100 0.24 544 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.3 -7.7 1016 84 78 0.11 546 533

IND:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -1.9 1010 80 98 0.13 547 539
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.8 1009 86 99 0.44 542 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -8.6 1014 86 64 0.10 545 534

BMG:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.6 -0.9 1015 70 82 0.01 551 539
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -2.0 1007 86 99 0.32 546 540
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.1 -5.4 1008 85 98 0.40 541 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.2 -8.7 1014 84 60 0.05 546 535

OKK:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -4.0 1014 76 99 0.02 547 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.0 -5.2 1011 85 99 0.26 543 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -8.6 1014 85 75 0.20 544 533

FWA:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.9 -5.7 1011 84 97 0.21 544 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.3 -8.5 1013 84 91 0.22 543 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.8 -8.1 1016 84 67 0.01 546 534 

MKG:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.5 -5.3 1019 73 91 0.01 544 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.0 -6.2 1020 77 93 0.01 545 530

GRR:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.6 -6.0 1018 79 98 0.05 544 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.2 -6.3 1018 79 89 0.02 545 531

BTL:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.7 -6.1 1016 69 91 0.02 545 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.4 -8.1 1016 82 97 0.13 544 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.4 1017 82 83 0.03 545 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.3 -6.4 1019 78 62 0.01 547 532

MOP:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.7 -6.2 1019 80 95 0.03 544 529
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.8 -6.0 1018 84 96 0.04 544 530
THU 12Z 27-DEC -6.4 -6.4 1020 84 83 0.01 545 530

PTK:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.4 -5.8 1017 71 84 0.01 547 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.6 1015 82 100 0.23 544 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.9 -7.9 1014 86 93 0.15 543 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.1 -7.5 1016 88 79 0.04 545 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.5 -6.4 1018 79 59 0.01 547 533

DTW:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.2 1015 76 98 0.07 546 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.8 1014 86 100 0.35 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -7.7 1013 86 91 0.12 543 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.9 1016 86 78 0.03 545 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.7 -6.6 1017 78 60 0.01 548 534

DET:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.0 -5.3 1016 73 98 0.04 547 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.5 1014 86 100 0.36 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.5 1013 86 92 0.17 543 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -7.9 1015 86 74 0.04 544 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.2 -7.0 1017 76 64 0.01 547 534

TDZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.0 -5.0 1011 79 97 0.20 546 537
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -7.9 1011 90 97 0.46 543 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.8 1013 87 90 0.07 543 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -8.6 1016 86 83 0.02 546 534
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.7 -6.3 1018 79 50 0.01 549 535 

DAY:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.3 -0.4 1010 84 100 0.27 550 542
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.5 -3.3 1005 91 87 0.57 543 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -5.3 1008 91 57 0.08 543 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -7.6 1013 89 68 0.02 546 536
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.6 -7.7 1018 87 43 0.01 550 536

HAO:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.6 -0.8 1018 69 76 0.01 553 539
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.5 -0.6 1007 89 100 0.40 550 544
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.1 -2.4 1004 88 38 0.39 542 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.4 -5.0 1008 89 65 0.05 543 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.7 1014 85 55 0.01 548 537

CMH:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.9 -0.1 1012 82 100 0.21 552 542
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.6 -2.8 1005 89 100 0.56 545 540
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.3 -3.2 1005 89 92 0.14 542 538
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.0 -6.9 1009 91 79 0.01 544 537
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -8.5 1016 88 69 0.01 548 536

CLE:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.0 -3.1 1012 86 100 0.26 548 539
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.0 -5.7 1009 90 98 0.51 543 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.3 -6.3 1008 89 90 0.14 542 536
THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.8 -8.2 1013 87 79 0.06 544 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.4 -8.7 1016 79 64 0.02 547 534
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -0.7 -8.8 1019 82 33 0.01 551 536
FRI 06Z 28-DEC -2.7 -5.6 1020 85 8 0.01 552 536

YKF:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -5.5 -5.2 1017 69 99 0.07 547 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -6.5 -4.7 1013 84 100 0.29 543 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -7.1 -8.1 1014 86 98 0.27 541 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.6 -8.6 1015 74 79 0.04 542 530

YYZ:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.8 -5.6 1018 72 95 0.04 548 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.3 -5.4 1014 84 100 0.27 544 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -5.8 -8.2 1014 87 98 0.46 541 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -5.0 -8.6 1015 80 89 0.07 541 530
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -6.2 -7.9 1017 85 76 0.02 544 530

Can someone explain temp profile here? How do you know what is snow vs rain?

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Only lost a single tenth of an inch. That's weird. Assuming the fundamentals of the storm remain the same, weaker primary, quicker transfer to a coastal, I'm going to have side with the drier GGEM/NCEP models. Just based on storm climatology around here.

Certainly NOT much more room for you to play with there on the Euro. It shows what amounts to a strong (but weakening) band making its way across the lake and giving you some snow before the f-gen starts shutting down and the deformation zone weakens considerably. This makes sense, as the cyclone will have matured some 18 hours prior.

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I'm gonna hold out hope for a bump nw on later runs. And conceptually, I can't remember many (any?) scenarios where we don't make out well with a primary low into KY, which may not be the thing to hang your hat on but it helps me feel a little better.

Agree, my time at BSU back in the day managing the wx station, the primary in KY was always good. I think even now we are ok, I know here in MIE its a little better. With things being colder now, SE, maybe ratios will be a little better also.

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Don't think I can remember a time where a storm started southeast, went northwest and the fully came back to its original (more or less) positioning. Usually when Columbus loses a snow event, it's gone for good. Though the last few years, it has gotten pretty lucky vs average climo.

Depends what you consider "original" positioning. When this storm was WAY in fantasyland (like 10 days), you had DT screaming a very suppressed event while the GFS wanted a MSP cutter. Inside of 5 days however things started out where I would miss all snow to the S/E, then it got better and better, and then 2 days ago I started sweating NW shift...now its going back SE. Im ok with todays verbatum models..but it better not go much more SE.

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Could you add ORD and MKE plz?

Poor t-snow got worked over by the gfs and nam.

lol. Enjoy your Christmas LES flurries...

MKE:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.9 -9.4 1020	 76	 43 0.01	 544	 528
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.4 -8.5 1020	 80	 32 0.01	 546	 530
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.1 -9.4 1022	 79	 35 0.01	 548	 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.0 -7.9 1022	 73	 11 0.01	 549	 532

ORD:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.7 -8.5 1019	 77	 71 0.01	 545	 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.7 -8.3 1020	 77	 28 0.01	 548	 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -7.0 1021	 77	 27 0.01	 549	 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.1 -8.0 1022	 73	 8 0.01	 550	 533

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lol. Enjoy your Christmas flurries...

MKE:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.9 -9.4 1020	 76	 43 0.01	 544	 528
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.4 -8.5 1020	 80	 32 0.01	 546	 530
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.1 -9.4 1022	 79	 35 0.01	 548	 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.0 -7.9 1022	 73	 11 0.01	 549	 532

ORD:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.7 -8.5 1019	 77	 71 0.01	 545	 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.7 -8.3 1020	 77	 28 0.01	 548	 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -7.0 1021	 77	 27 0.01	 549	 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.1 -8.0 1022	 73	 8 0.01	 550	 533

ROTFLMAO

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DTW:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.2 1015 76 98 0.07 546 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.8 1014 86 100 0.35 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -7.7 1013 86 91 0.12 543 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.9 1016 86 78 0.03 545 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.7 -6.6 1017 78 60 0.01 548 534

DET:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.0 -5.3 1016 73 98 0.04 547 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.0 -7.5 1014 86 100 0.36 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.5 1013 86 92 0.17 543 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -7.9 1015 86 74 0.04 544 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.2 -7.0 1017 76 64 0.01 547 534

DTW only lost 0.04" from 00z.

Euro is still at least a 6" snowfall. As some have said in recent days...Ill take it and run.

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