jhamps10 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 PAH: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 201 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ISSUED AT 200 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012 WHILE THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL VARIABILITY CONCERNING THE CHRISTMAS NIGHT STORM...A HIGH IMPACT WINTER STORM APPEARS LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING IN MORE DETAIL AT MODEL SOLUTIONS... THE 12Z NAM REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...WITH A SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM KMEM TO THE KHOP AREA. THE PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT AND WARM 800/900 MB LAYER TEMPS INDICATED BY THE NAM WOULD RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS...THOUGH THE NW TIER OF COUNTIES /NORTHWEST OF KCGI AND KMDH/ WOULD POTENTIALLY RECEIVE SOME HEAVY SNOW. THE 12Z GFS IS MORE TOWARD THE CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION...AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SOUTHERNMOST 00Z CANADIAN MODEL AND 12Z NAM. THE GFS WAS ONE OF THE BEST PERFORMING MODELS DURING THE RECENT PLAINS/MIDWEST BLIZZARD SEVERAL DAYS AGO. IT HAS SHOWN DECENT RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL. FOR THESE REASONS...FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...WHICH IMPLIES A POTENTIALLY CRIPPLING SNOWSTORM FOR PARTS OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE PLACEMENT OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE IN FLUX FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN OR TWO. THE 12Z GFS THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE PRIMARILY A SNOW EVENT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM KPOF/KCGI/KMWA/KFWC. GFS MODEL QPF IS WELL OVER AN INCH IN THOSE AREAS...WHICH SUGGESTS AMOUNTS AROUND ONE FOOT ARE EASILY ATTAINABLE. ALL MODELS AGREE ON TREMENDOUS MID AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING/VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHT AND INTENSE MID LEVEL LOW THAT WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY VICINITY. THUNDER APPEARS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE KHOP AREA. THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONG WINDS WOULD RESULT IN BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AREA. UNTIL THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL CAN BE MORE ACCURATELY ASSESSED...IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET CARRIED AWAY WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS IN PUBLIC PRODUCTS. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE LOWEST IMPACTS WILL OCCUR IN THE KHOP AREA...WHERE PRECIP TYPE WILL BE PRIMARILY LIQUID. THIS IS OF COURSE RULING OUT THE OUTLIER 00Z CANADIAN/UKMET MODELS...WHICH ARE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS. IN BETWEEN...THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING THE KEVV/KOWB/KPAH AREAS...ARE LIKELY TO BEGIN AS RAIN CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IS VERY LIKELY AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS SIMPLY TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW AMOUNTS IN THIS TRANSITION AREA. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...FALLING TEMPS...AND SNOWFALL WOULD RESULT IN MODERATE TO HIGH TRAVEL IMPACTS IN THE TRANSITION AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. EVEN THOUGH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF HEAVY SNOW IS STILL IN FLUX...WILL HOIST A WINTER STORM WATCH DUE TO THE SHEER POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF THE EVENT...COMBINED WITH THE HEIGHTENED IMPACTS ON PEAK HOLIDAY TRAVEL. THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WATCH WILL END WITHIN THE TRANSITION ZONE THAT INCLUDES KPAH/KEVV. THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT. SOME PRECIP WILL SPREAD NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON...BUT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR AT NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WRAPAROUND SNOW WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF KPAH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks a bit slower through 54hrs. The QPF amonts being spit out in OK are unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amos83 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Considering ill be in MWA visiting inlaws ill admit the disco out of PAH is beginning to get me excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks like it's going to be a bit slower with any phase... ridge in the west isn't nearly as strong with the energy on the west coast getting there a bit quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Considering ill be in MWA visiting inlaws ill admit the disco out of PAH is beginning to get me excited. Just issued a winter storm watch infact, doesn't include Vanderburgh county, but Posey and Gibson are included.. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY 231 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012 ...POTENTIALLY MAJOR WINTER STORM TO IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL PLANS... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS TENNESSEE ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT. STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY SNOW TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE LOW TRACK WILL LIKELY IMPACT SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST INDIANA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. ILZ075>078-080>089-092-093-INZ081-085-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112- 114-241000- /O.NEW.KPAH.WS.A.0001.121226T0000Z-121226T1600Z/ JEFFERSON-WAYNE IL-EDWARDS-WABASH-PERRY IL-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON- WHITE-JACKSON-WILLIAMSON-SALINE-GALLATIN-UNION IL-JOHNSON- ALEXANDER-PULASKI-GIBSON-POSEY-PERRY MO-BOLLINGER-CAPE GIRARDEAU- WAYNE MO-CARTER-RIPLEY-BUTLER-STODDARD-SCOTT-MISSISSIPPI- NEW MADRID- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MOUNT VERNON...FAIRFIELD...ALBION... MOUNT CARMEL...PINCKNEYVILLE...WEST FRANKFORT...MCLEANSBORO... CARMI...CARBONDALE...HERRIN...HARRISBURG...SHAWNEETOWN... JONESBORO...VIENNA...CAIRO...MOUND CITY...FORT BRANCH... POSEYVILLE...PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL...CAPE GIRARDEAU... PIEDMONT...VAN BUREN...DONIPHAN...POPLAR BLUFF...BLOOMFIELD... SIKESTON...CHARLESTON...NEW MADRID 231 PM CST SUN DEC 23 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PADUCAH HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS: CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW. ANY CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD CAUSE THE HEAVY SNOW AREA TO SHIFT...SO CONTINUE TO MONITOR UPDATED FORECASTS. * TIMING: SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY ON CHRISTMAS NIGHT...POSSIBLY STARTING AS RAIN CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS WILL OCCUR MOST OF THE NIGHT. THE SNOW WILL END EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE. * MAIN IMPACT: INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND STRONG WINDS MAY CAUSE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. VISIBILITY WILL BE LOWER THAN ONE HALF MILE...WITH LOCAL WHITEOUT CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS: BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW COULD POTENTIALLY MAKE TRAVEL IMPOSSIBLE. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This is why the NAM can be fun: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 if I had to take a guess, ILX will be issuing a Winter storm watch for areas east of I-57 in a few minutes based off of this: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/wxstory.php?site=ilx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Winter storm watch also just issued from IND. Possible 5-9 inches. Dominoes are falling in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z NAM clocks LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 NWS Indy issues WSW with a medium confidence forecast of 5-9 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 and there it is: http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ILZ071&warncounty=ILC025&firewxzone=ILZ071&local_place1=&product1=Winter+Storm+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Appears to have trended towards the EURO/GFS with the quicker transfer to a coastal low. Regardless, still a beautiful mid-level deformation zone and deep easterly flow throwing Atlantic moisture well back to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maumee Bay Turf Center Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 flora is in for a clock cleaning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 was just about to say the same thing. To bad out ahead of it is flat as a board. what could have been.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Juiciest/Snowiest run yet of the NAM... heavy snow axis just a bit further east on the eastern side. Hopefully these 0z runs tonight can finally start agreeing with each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12-14" and still snowing beyond 84. NAM seems to never disappoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This is why the NAM can be fun: fun...or funny? it looks like it's trying in it's own confused way, to move towards the euro. I base this on the goofy way it tries to pop a secondary. The primary travels well into w. OH and pops a secondary in w.NC. if the primary makes it that far nw....there won't be a secondary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 flora is in for a clock cleaning Time to think about alerting the National Guards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z NAM clocks LAF. have to wonder if if you'll see higher amounts than forecasted closer to the NAM given the moisture feed and possible banding. Interested to read LOT's AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 To bad out ahead of it is flat as a board. what could have been.. still have a little hope for a stronger system allowing for a longer N/NE movement but we'll see. Forecaster at LOT seems pretty confident in atleast several inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 LOL... Well, I wish all of you a great snowstorm. As for me, I will truly be in the snow hole of the Great Lakes region. Un freakin real.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Will be at my parents house in Decatur, Il. This storm has suddenly perked my interest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 fun...or funny? it looks like it's trying in it's own confused way, to move towards the euro. I base this on the goofy way it tries to pop a secondary. The primary travels well into w. OH and pops a secondary in w.NC. if the primary makes it that far nw....there won't be a secondary. I was going to ask, at the risk of being accused of trolling, but does that make any sense at all? I have never seen a primary go into Cincy and Dayton, then pop a secondary over the Carolina Mountains. To me, at least the surface appearance on the NAM made no sense to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 wow...indy hoists the watches already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I was going to ask, at the risk of being accused of trolling, but does that make any sense at all? I have never seen a primary go into Cincy and Dayton, then pop a secondary over the Carolina Mountains. To me, at least the surface appearance on the NAM made no sense to me. i think it's either one strong primary or a euro-esque transfer solution. I think the nam hasn't made up its mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Can see spatially the moisture being wrapped around the upper low. I know 0.50-1.00" PWATS sound lackluster, but based on late December climo, they're really impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 wow...indy hoists the watches already Yep...doesn't include my county though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n1vek Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 LOL... Well, I wish all of you a great snowstorm. As for me, I will truly be in the snow hole of the Great Lakes region. Un freakin real.... Chicago is going to fall into that same snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Amazing how much wetter the SREF is further northwest, also deeper DGZ looks to line up with the northwest half of the defo band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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