TheWeatherPimp Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sticking by my forecast from last night. Looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Sticking by my forecast from last night. Looking good right now. Same here. 2-4" for Toronto, leaning more towards 2" for the northern half of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The University of Illinois WRF ensembles seemed to do pretty good with the last system. Worth keeping an eye on IMO. Looks pretty good for LAF/INDY to DTW/TOL. http://rt.atmos.uiuc.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Same here. 2-4" for Toronto, leaning more towards 2" for the northern half of the city. I'd be blown away if the EURO keeps us AOA 0.75" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Kinda wanted to wait til after the 00z runs but not sure how much I'll be around later. No harm in throwing out a first call, even if it's low to medium confidence. But yeah, 0z and hopefully tomorrow's 12z runs should clear things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Assuming the flatter solutions we've seen in today's 12z models is in fact a trend, gotta give credit to yesterday's 18z GEFS. They were the first to sniff it out. edit: of course, credit also due to the UKIE/GGEM, which although at first were too suppressed, never went overboard like the EURO/NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 DTX issued an update. Winter storm to impact southeast Michigan on Wednesday as upper level energy/trough is tracking through the west coast at the present time. The key to the forecast appears to be the upper level low over Ontario retrograding to the west, allowing for the weakness over central/eastern Great Lakes for the gulf coast storm system to track far enough to the north. Otherwise, bit concerning for the low to deepen so rapidly along the gulf coast states, with 500 mb low struggling to make it much farther north than the southern Ohio Valley. A solution calling for a miss, like the 12z Canadian suggests can not be discredited at this juncture. However, preference will be with the majority of the models and bank on the system being negatively tilted and keeping a northern stream attachment, allowing trowal structure to arch back into our forecast area late Wednesday. Still, the 00z NAM clearly shows the system unraveling a bit, with one surge of upper level PV emanating from the center, with secondary development taking place along the coast as initial surface low dissipates before even reaching pittsburgh. NAM cross section shows about 3.5 g/kg of specific humidity at 750 mb level reaching M-59 corridor. EPV above 0.25 throughout the entire column below 500 mb, so not terribly unstable. One of the biggest hindrance of this system for us is the progressive/relatively short lived good lift ( less than 9 hrs ). With those considerations and using GFS/UKMET/Euro output in the equation as well, expecting a 3 to 5 inch snowfall across most of southeast Michigan, with half a foot coming in and around Monroe-detroit to the eastern Thumb region. Probably looking at a decent northwest gradient/cutoff to the snow shield, and suspect tri-cities region will be on the lower end. None-the-less, there still is room for a northwest jog of the system, or southeast for that matter, as 00z Canadian remains on the southern fringe of solutions. Regardless of snow amounts, northeast winds look to be rather strong, .20 to 30 mph. Assuming there is sufficient snowfall..blowing snow and reduced visibilities below 1/2sm will be possible. Positively tilted upper level trough will slide through the central Contiguous U.S. on Friday, and east of the Mississippi River on Saturday. Another similar storm track advertised, with lead low dissipating with secondary coastal storm taking over. This system does not look as strong or organized at first glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Assuming the flatter solutions we've seen in today's 12z models is in fact a trend, gotta give credit to yesterday's 18z GEFS. They were the first to sniff it out. edit: of course, credit also due to the UKIE/GGEM, which although at first were too suppressed, never went overboard like the EURO/NAM/GFS. Too early for model congratulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Too early for model congratulations. Hence the word "assuming". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 euro did great for me.. snow never sniffed the IL/WI border and it wont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 DTX issued an update. The update pertained to today's light snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The update pertained to today's light snow... I was just about to edit my post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hence the word "assuming". No worries, DT has you on the 8" line: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/36999-ohio-and-surrounding-states-lets-talk-winter/page__st__210#entry1942359 Though I've yet to see him nail a Midwest/Lakes event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 FWIW, 9z SREF 12 hour snow probabilities. 60, 66, and 72 hour maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 da hell is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Finally, a snow event for southeast lower MI. I look to be out of the path, but close anyway. I'm hoping for a more northerly track, but even if not, yahoo for finally something for SE MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 FWIW, 9z SREF 12 hour snow probabilities. 60, 66, and 72 hour maps. Some of those are yummy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 da hell is that? He failed to mention it was Skilling's in house RPM, which was posted on FB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yikes, latest LSX WRF is an unmitigated disaster for STL-LAF. 4km WRF isn't looking hot either. Both are using the meso-low from the convection to drive the system further east, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 DTX issued an update. Winter storm to impact southeast Michigan on Wednesday as upper level energy/trough is tracking through the west coast at the present time. The key to the forecast appears to be the upper level low over Ontario retrograding to the west, allowing for the weakness over central/eastern Great Lakes for the gulf coast storm system to track far enough to the north. Otherwise, bit concerning for the low to deepen so rapidly along the gulf coast states, with 500 mb low struggling to make it much farther north than the southern Ohio Valley. A solution calling for a miss, like the 12z Canadian suggests can not be discredited at this juncture. However, preference will be with the majority of the models and bank on the system being negatively tilted and keeping a northern stream attachment, allowing trowal structure to arch back into our forecast area late Wednesday. Still, the 00z NAM clearly shows the system unraveling a bit, with one surge of upper level PV emanating from the center, with secondary development taking place along the coast as initial surface low dissipates before even reaching pittsburgh. NAM cross section shows about 3.5 g/kg of specific humidity at 750 mb level reaching M-59 corridor. EPV above 0.25 throughout the entire column below 500 mb, so not terribly unstable. One of the biggest hindrance of this system for us is the progressive/relatively short lived good lift ( less than 9 hrs ). With those considerations and using GFS/UKMET/Euro output in the equation as well, expecting a 3 to 5 inch snowfall across most of southeast Michigan, with half a foot coming in and around Monroe-detroit to the eastern Thumb region. Probably looking at a decent northwest gradient/cutoff to the snow shield, and suspect tri-cities region will be on the lower end. None-the-less, there still is room for a northwest jog of the system, or southeast for that matter, as 00z Canadian remains on the southern fringe of solutions. Regardless of snow amounts, northeast winds look to be rather strong, .20 to 30 mph. Assuming there is sufficient snowfall..blowing snow and reduced visibilities below 1/2sm will be possible. Positively tilted upper level trough will slide through the central Contiguous U.S. on Friday, and east of the Mississippi River on Saturday. Another similar storm track advertised, with lead low dissipating with secondary coastal storm taking over. This system does not look as strong or organized at first glance. That wasnt an update that was their morning discussion. EDIT nevermind Im late to the party, you already noticed that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 He failed to mention it was Skilling's in house RPM, which was posted on FB. Heard good things about that model, but I'm guessing it's not so hot beyond, like, 36 hours or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 da hell is that? RPM model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Getting ready to throw the towel for STL (not that we had much hope anyways). Friv, you might end up with a bit on the fringe, but don't get your hopes up too high. In other news, grats Buckeye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yikes, latest LSX WRF is an unmitigated disaster for STL-LAF. 4km WRF isn't looking hot either. Both are using the meso-low from the convection to drive the system further east, though. Might as well ask a pro: did you think either the NAM or GFS were suffering from gridscale convective feedback? Nothing jumped out at me, but what the hell do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Might as well ask a pro: did you think either the NAM or GFS were suffering from gridscale convective feedback? Nothing jumped out at me, but what the hell do I know. Not really, had more to do with their handling of the jet streak and resulting depth of the downstream trough over the Pacific. The cut-off high over Canada had a part to play as well, but less so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I noticed DTX bumped up their snow totals from the morning update in their point forecasts. 4-8" now for the southern counties including Ann Arbor - Detroit, 3-7" for Oakland County, 2-6" up near Flint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 CIPS top 2 analogs at hours 36 based off the 12z NAM, couldn't be any different. At least for my 'hood http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F036&flg= 48 hours has some different storms: http://www.eas.slu.e...2&fhr=F048&flg= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 A lot of the hi-res models have been showing a sorta squashed look to the deform band as it tries to make its way into MI...which is believable since this is exactly when the system begins to transfer east. I'm going with 4-8" for SEMI, obv. with the higher amounts in the SE and lower as you go NW. Some images from the 12z 4km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 And we wait patiently for the EURO... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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