kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 And there it is SSC, what could go wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 No feet and feet for me this run. 500mb doesn't have any substantial differences this run compared to the 6z AFAICT, so it's a bit surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On the bright-side NAM just aligns with EURO in regards to the QPF for the Detroit area. Still yields a 3-7" event. More South less north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 still sloppy and riding the edge....pretty much i-70 north it looks like....but MASSIVE improvement. Especially considering the nam was the worst model for us Exactly. The NAM had soaking rain almost to Toledo yesterday. This is a massive step in the right direction and it also means a capitulation to the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On the bright-side NAM just aligns with EURO in regards to the QPF for the Detroit area. Still yields a 3-7" event. More South less north. Yeah, if that was the worse case scenario (NAM-wise), it would not be bad at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 And there it is SSC, what could go wrong... Well, to put things in perspective: 1. I never thought the clown runs of the NAM would verify (although I didn't expect THIS much of a step back) 2. Verbatim, it's still 4-6" here and for you guys in SE MI, so assuming and hoping this isn't the start of the trend, I'd be more than happy with that. 3. This might be a noise level shift that can easily be corrected. Only would take a 50 mile northerly shift in that monstrous QPF axis to get us back into some higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Congrats Josh. Looks like one of those storms that gives Wyandotte 8 inches and Howell 3. Jon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well, to put things in perspective: 1. I never thought the clown runs of the NAM would verify (although I didn't expect THIS much of a step back) 2. Verbatim, it's still 4-6" here and for you guys in SE MI, so assuming and hoping this isn't the start of the trend, I'd be more than happy with that. 3. This might be a noise level shift that can easily be corrected. Only would take a 50 mile northerly shift in that monstrous QPF axis to get us back into some higher amounts. Good points. What I really meant was any increased blocking further suppressing that axis would be what could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Good points. What I really meant was any increased blocking further suppressing that axis would be what could go wrong. Could you point that out to me? Because I'm not seeing any real changes aloft on the 12z run. May be a subtle feature I'm glossing over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I didn't mind this run one bit. Still makes for a decent event. High end WWA or low end WSW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Congrats Josh. Looks like one of those storms that gives Wyandotte 8 inches and Howell 3. Jon If the blocking were to weaken just a hair 3" can turn into 8-9" easily for you. It could be one of those storms that could go down to the wire. Don't fold your cards yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Well, to put things in perspective: 1. I never thought the clown runs of the NAM would verify (although I didn't expect THIS much of a step back) 2. Verbatim, it's still 4-6" here and for you guys in SE MI, so assuming and hoping this isn't the start of the trend, I'd be more than happy with that. 3. This might be a noise level shift that can easily be corrected. Only would take a 50 mile northerly shift in that monstrous QPF axis to get us back into some higher amounts. I've been following this threat from the outside the last few days and I have to say that 4-6" is a safe bet for us. Also, this run of the NAM puts us back in the game for a minor snowfall tonight (an inch or so). Last night's 00z NAM run had nothing for us with respect to tonight's event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Could you point that out to me? Because I'm not seeing any real changes aloft on the 12z run. May be a subtle feature I'm glossing over. I was mainly referring to the added confluence over Southeast Canada (compared to the 00Z run in particular). I wasn't clear, but I meant any hypothetical increased blocking in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Congrats IND, MIE on this run...bullseye wise. NAM clearly still QPF happy down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Here's a bold call: IND 8-14" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I've been following this threat from the outside the last few days and I have to say that 4-6" is a safe bet for us. Also, this run of the NAM puts us back in the game for a minor snowfall tonight (an inch or so). Last night's 00z NAM run had nothing for us with respect to tonight's event. In the anti-snow hell we call our home, YOU NEVER KNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 1.63" total for IND...1.05" in six hours. lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I was mainly referring to the added confluence over Southeast Canada (compared to the 00Z run in particular). I wasn't clear, but I meant any hypothetical increased blocking in future runs. I compared with 6z at around 30 hours. It was like a fraction of a millimetre further south (distance on my screen of course, not reality). If that's all it's going to take to drag us from epic to modest, we might have to sweat this one out. another 0.5mm to the south and I can start laying grass seed for the spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 1.63" total for IND...1.05" in six hours. lolz Dear Lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM has gone ballistic! With qpf, atleast i hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Poor STL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Here's a look at the 12z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Congrats Josh. Looks like one of those storms that gives Wyandotte 8 inches and Howell 3. Jon So recapping the last 3-4 days of model runs for here. First its too far SE to see any snow, then its good, then too NW for comfort, and now trending SE again. Im certainly safe for now...but trends arent in the favor of SE MI...but now that its been sampled, I have to believe the chances of this being a complete miss are extremely low. Also note how much slower than NAM is...the latest run has snow starting here around 2pm Wed and lasting through something like 8am Thur. Previous runs were more like 7am Wed to 3am Thu. As long as we get a nice blanket of snow I will be happy. Its also looking increasingly likely that it will be my favorite kind of snow, powder. If we miss the jackpot...no big deal. If the NAM clown maps dont verify...again, if anyone hoped they would...THATS the problem. But if I get NO snow from this...I will be EXTREMELY pissed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow does that remind me of the pre-Christmas storm of 04. Lol... Just in Franklin county Ohio (Columbus), you have 2" on one side, 8 on the other! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 So recapping the last 3-4 days of model runs for here. First its too far SE to see any snow, then its good, then too NW for comfort, and now trending SE again. Im certainly safe for now...but trends arent in the favor of SE MI...but now that its been sampled, I have to believe the chances of this being a complete miss are extremely low. Also note how much slower than NAM is...the latest run has snow starting here around 2pm Wed and lasting through something like 8am Thur. Previous runs were more like 7am Wed to 3am Thu. As long as we get a nice blanket of snow I will be happy. Its also looking increasingly likely that it will be my favorite kind of snow, powder. If we miss the jackpot...no big deal. If the NAM clown maps dont verify...again, if anyone hoped they would...THATS the problem. But if I get NO snow from this...I will be EXTREMELY pissed off. How you survived the 1990s is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM has gone ballistic! With qpf, atleast i hope. NAM always goes ballistic with qpf in these kinds of storms lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 NAM is about 130 miles (~200 km) southeast of the previous run. Toronto no longer directly under the gun but I'll hold out hope for the next run or two. Accumulating snows still very likely... might just not be our jackpot storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 My call is for 2-4" in Toronto, possibly 6" if we can luck out. It all depends on whetehr or not the southeast trend continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 How you survived the 1990s is beyond me. Alberta Clippers is how we survived Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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