snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 6z NAM gonna be even more juiced I'm going to go out on a limb and say it doesn't give me 30"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow congrats St Louis to Lafayette on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 This might be the 20" clown run that I mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 This might be the 20" clown run that I mentioned earlier. Little 1" weenie blob just to your NW at 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Gotta give Tim a chance to save this frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 6z NAM gonna be even more juiced Nope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nope... Er. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like it's slowed everything down again buy 3-4 hours. Other than that, probably going to be just as lolworthy with QPF amounts as the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 nam is waking up, finally.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Definitely going to be a nowcast situation the further you go north back towards michigan cause of the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 nam is waking up, finally.. Yeah, totally catching on to those 30"+ jackpots were gonna see in Niagara Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 For S&G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 @ random 12"+ gap in MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah, totally catching on to those 30"+ jackpots were gonna see in Niagara i'm talking S/Mi..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 @ random 12"+ gap in MI Disappointing here too. Only 20-22" this run. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 nam is waking up, finally.. Wouldn't want to see it fully awake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The snowfall accums across S/E Mi with the 06 nam look more realistic... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The snowfall accums across S/E Mi with the 06 nam look more realistic... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 ILN puts northwest 6 counties under a watch. Kinda expected more than that. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 356 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012 .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS AND TRACK THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE OHIO VALLEY CHRISTMAS NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE LOW TRACK. INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>044-241700- /O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0002.121226T0600Z-121227T0600Z/ WAYNE-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SHELBY-LOGAN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...KENTON...CELINA... WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLEFONTAINE 356 AM EST MON DEC 24 2012 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 7 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 1 AM CHRISTMAS NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 i'm talking S/Mi..... You can't take a run that's jacked up and wrong in so many ways and then say it looks like it's "waking up" and be coming more realistic based on QPF in one small area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 new hpc maps are out and it looks like it did shift nw a little. IND is going to get a good hit barring further shifts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stud Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You can't take a run that's jacked up and wrong in so many ways and then say it looks like it's "waking up" and be coming more realistic based on QPF in one small area. Good. Let the hate flow through you. Joking aside, I do predict some meltdowns coming later today if more shift occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 BUF: 00Z MODELS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON CENTERING A LARGE WINTER STORM SYSTEM OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE MUCH OF NEW YORK CONTINUES TO SEE FAIR CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SOUTH FROM CENTRAL ONTARIO PROVINCE. A LOOK AT THE ST. LOUIS UNIVERSITY CIPS ANALOGS FOR 00Z MODELS SHOWS THE TOP 15 ANALOGS TO THE MODEL TRACK FOR THIS SYSTEM YIELD BOTH A 500 MB AND MSLP PATTERN WHICH IS 2SD BELOW NORMAL. THE UPCOMING STORM SYSTEM IS VERY SIMILAR TO A STORM THAT OCCURRED ON DEC 12 1992...WHEN A LARGE PORTION OF WESTERN NY PICKED UP MORE THAN 10 INCHES OF SNOW. I believe that storm dropped more than a foot in Toronto, although it was much warmer than the upcoming one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 06Z GFS is going east some...colder run for Ohio/Southern IN EDIT...WOW. A much better run for us in the southeast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Definitely a downgrade on QPF on the 6z GFS. Quicker coastal transfer and overall slightly further E/SE track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Definitely a downgrade on QPF on the 6z GFS. Quicker coastal transfer and overall slightly further E/SE track. Can you post a snow map of this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 FWIW 3-7" is my call for all the Detroit area. 7-10" for the GTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Chris Bradley posted the NAM clown showing a 16" lollipop from OKK to FWA and a large area of 14"+ on his Facebook page. Forecasters get a bad rap by posting an outlier for public consumption. He must have learned from some EC mets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern_IN_Wx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 3 to 5 Imby ... I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The snowfall accums across S/E Mi with the 06 nam look more realistic... Looks like the NAM finally picking up the blocking thus transfer the low quicker. There's always a catch in the Detroit area for big events to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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