buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Really expected a shift nw with euro....looks like a 50/50 slop fest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yep the 00z is a near duplicate of the 12z run. Talk about a fake out by the euro ensembles. Back in the day when that happened the OP usually followed along.. Slight difference is the QPF is slightly more aligned from the west vs south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Seems like the NAM is off its rocker. If only that one would verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GordoFabulous Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Can you post the EURO text for MIE? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbcmh81 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Really expected a shift nw with euro....looks like a 50/50 slop fest It's going to keep us on edge right up until the end, like always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yep the 00z is a near duplicate of the 12z run. Talk about a fake out by the euro ensembles. Back in the day when that happened the OP usually followed along.. Slight difference is the QPF is slightly more aligned from the west vs south. It seems like whether its the gfs or euro....the ensembles don't mean crap lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Really expected a shift nw with euro.... Yeah it ( nor it's ensembles ) are what it/they once were. As mentioned in the last post typically when the ensembles were nw of the OP the OP usually corrected back in that direction on the next run.. Not anymore.. Ofcourse if i recall correctly it pulled this sort of fake out last week. I got a slight bump in QPF here but thats not saying much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's going to keep us on edge right up until the end, like always. Lol...you can't get any closer looking at the text numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's going to keep us on edge right up until the end, like always. Yup it'll be another watch the pink and green on the radar advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It seems like whether its the gfs or euro....the ensembles don't mean crap lately yep.. Last week the euro ensembles were hell bent on taking that system near/just south of here and even at one point ( 48hrs or so out) took it to Indy and then Toledo.. Talking about the last cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 PatrickSumner before you ask the Euro was good for south central indiana Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yup it'll be another watch the pink and green on the radar advance I'm about 70 miles due west of Cincy.The way things are aligned, I may get the same precip type as CMH... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Subtle differences between the GFS, NAM and EC in the Pacific at initialization are having a big impact on the downstream track. In particular, the EC is about 10kt stronger with the jet streak at 300mb than the NAM and the orientation is about 10 degrees more clockwise. There is only PIREP data that far out and only two data points to go on at this juncture (that are sampling the jet streak in question), but a plane did report 306/78 at 3:47Z west of Oregon at flight level 320. I only have the 300mb data to go on atm (which is about 300, there won't be a big difference at that altitude), but the Euro did seem a bit strong compared to the ob (~85kt). The NAM was running ~75. We'll have to watch as the balloon data and better quality PIREPs come in to see who is modeling that jet streak better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm about 70 miles due west of Cincy.The way things are aligned, I may get the same precip type as CMH... You should do fine if that's your location. West is best in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 PatrickSumner before you ask the Euro was good for south central indiana Ha! Ha! I'll thank you for him! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Here's my forecast map that I posted Sunday afternoon. Not a whole lot of changes in my thoughts/forecast for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Subtle differences between the GFS, NAM and EC in the Pacific at initialization are having a big impact on the downstream track. In particular, the EC is about 10kt stronger with the jet streak at 300mb than the NAM and the orientation is about 10 degrees more clockwise. There is only PIREP data that far out and only two data points to go on at this juncture (that are sampling the jet streak in question), but a plane did report 306/78 at 3:47Z west of Oregon at flight level 320. I only have the 300mb data to go on atm (which is about 300, there won't be a big difference at that altitude), but the Euro did seem a bit strong compared to the ob (~85kt). The NAM was running ~75. We'll have to watch as the balloon data and better quality PIREPs come in to see who is modeling that jet streak better. I think the 12z runs should have all of that data if i am not mistaken? Or am i off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 You should do fine if that's your location. West is best in this situation If the Euro is right and I hope it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 hows Terre Haute do with all this? HUF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 hows Terre Haute do with all this? HUF... Most models put you in good snow zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Most models put you in good snow zone... Music to my ears! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Angrys is right. Looking at wx underground it looks like low gets to Athens Ohio. That should have been a lot warmer if so for here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I think the 12z runs should have all of that data if i am not mistaken? Or am i off? We should have a balloon through the jet streak at Medford, OR and Oakland, CA tomorrow morning. It doesn't fully come onshore until after that, but it may be good enough to put this to rest by the 12Z runs. If not, definitely by the 00Z runs we'll know. As a result of the Euro's handling of the jet streak strength and orientation, it causes the trough to dig deeper faster than the rest of the model guidance and thus come in further south than the others in the later ranges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Wow! The Toronto area finally getting something big. I'm more excited for this than Christmas. Last 12"+ event in Toronto was February 6th, 2008. Not a single event topped 2" for Toronto last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Can you post the EURO text for MIE? Thanks. hows Terre Haute do with all this? HUF... MIE: WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.4 -1.4 1010 84 100 0.20 548 540 WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.9 -4.2 1006 93 88 0.50 542 537 THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.1 1010 89 81 0.12 542 534 THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.0 -7.7 1014 87 52 0.01 546 535 HUF: WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.6 -2.2 1015 71 86 0.03 551 539 WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.3 -1.9 1008 84 100 0.24 546 539 WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.9 -5.8 1008 88 96 0.40 541 535 THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.9 -7.8 1014 85 64 0.09 546 534 THU 06Z 27-DEC -1.7 -6.1 1017 86 23 0.01 552 538 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 PatrickSumner before you ask the Euro was good for south central indiana Thanks...your my bestie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxhstn74 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 LOL- Thought I was done working midnights! Storm forecast from what i've seen in guidance and experienced. http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2012/12/winter-storm-on-track-to-hit-southeast.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We should have a balloon through the jet streak at Medford, OR and Oakland, CA tomorrow morning. It doesn't fully come onshore until after that, but it may be good enough to put this to rest by the 12Z runs. If not, definitely by the 00Z runs we'll know. As a result of the Euro's handling of the jet streak strength and orientation, it causes the trough to dig deeper faster than the rest of the model guidance and thus come in further south than the others in the later ranges. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeenerWx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Riding the edge with this one, but it looks very good for those just south and east Locally, looks like 2-4" would be possible. Not too excited about the lake potential in NW Indiana, but it could account for 1-4" of additional snowfall in favored areas--four to six inches of total snowfall is certainly a reasonable possibility within Lake/Porter Counties. I'm also intrigued about the possibility for moderate lake snows in NE Illinois. Mesoscale details will need to be worked out on a closer date, but right now it looks pretty good for a lake plume (convergence zone near Chitown?) to offer up some fun late Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 6z NAM gonna be even more juiced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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