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December 26-27 Winter Storm Part 2

Hoosier

By Hoosier,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Angle of approach and lack of very cold air in place?

Possibly....although my hope is models overdoing the warm air. Gem really looks goofy with that rain on the nw and west side. Of course there is the wtod, but usually the low has to be ready to cross the river . Wtod from a low getting to Jackson ky shouldn't be an issue for cmh

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Geos

Geos

Posted
Posted

Here's the GHD storm example I was talking about. Unexpected band of very heavy snow formed towards the northwestern fringe of the main deform zone, and stalled out. Dumped very heavy accumulations. The models usually don't catch these type of bands IMO. I think they develop as the drier air from the west squeezes against the "backing" deformation zone and form an intense band of snow along that convergent zone. With this storm the models have a pretty sharp cutoff on the northwestern edge of the storm, so this area of enhancement could be pretty pronounced. Anyway, something to watch for those on the northwestern fringe...

ghdg.jpg

That would be an interesting twist to this storm system. Looks like at the time of that radar image it was actually snowing harder under that band compared to here! Looked like Hawkeye was under that.

There ya go Blackrock, something to track with this storm! :)

I think I remember seeing these types of features as well. It's would make sense that two air mass, one dry cold, and one moist but not that cold could collide and then rise.

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted

Possibly....although my hope is models overdoing the warm air. Gem really looks goofy with that rain on the nw and west side. Of course there is the wtod, but usually the low has to be ready to cross the river . Wtod from a low getting to Jackson ky shouldn't be an issue for cmh

I'm gonna try and spare you the possible disappointment. And take it from me, living NE of STL, I usually get nothing but disappointment when it comes to snow. When have you ever seen the models overforecast a warm air intrusion on a strong system?

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Powerball

Powerball

Posted
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I'm gonna try and spare you the possible disappointment. And take it from me, living NE of STL, I usually get nothing but disappointment when it comes to snow. When have you ever seen the models overforecast a warm air intrusion on a strong system?

And dry slotting for that matter, which if that low transfers later rather than sooner will be a problem for some.

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TugHillMatt

TugHillMatt

Posted
Posted

That would be an interesting twist to this storm system. Looks like at the time of that radar image it was actually snowing harder under that band compared to here! Looked like Hawkeye was under that.

There ya go Blackrock, something to track with this storm! :)

Lol, Geos. Perhaps I will "check in" once in a while to see if anything develops...oh, who am I kidding? I'll be hooked on the radar as if it were the end of the world (again)...

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jbcmh81

jbcmh81

Posted
Posted

I'm gonna try and spare you the possible disappointment. And take it from me, living NE of STL, I usually get nothing but disappointment when it comes to snow. When have you ever seen the models overforecast a warm air intrusion on a strong system?

March 7-8, 2008, February 5-6, 2010, etc. Just because it doesn't happen every time doesn't mean it doesn't happen. The track the Euro has is usually pretty good for snow in the Columbus area, so I wouldn't exactly call it a done deal. If it moves further nw, sure, but right now, no.

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wxdudemike

wxdudemike

Posted
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I'm gonna try and spare you the possible disappointment. And take it from me, living NE of STL, I usually get nothing but disappointment when it comes to snow. When have you ever seen the models overforecast a warm air intrusion on a strong system?

My worry would be at the surface. I've seen issues on many storms where the surface temp held below freezing a bit longer than predicted and we got a blast of ice instead of just plain rain. That may not be as big of an issue with this system because it is taking such a negative tilt though and getting fairly strong.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Great points from you both... Unfortunately (for buckeye).....

Lol I'm not debating them....and trust me no one on this board is more familiar with good bad and ugly cmh storm set ups. It's a stretch but we still have a decent shot of winter wx out of this...probably in a messy way. I picked up 3" from this last storm....I would have never believed we'd even get that.

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csnavywx

csnavywx

Posted
Posted

At what timeframe out?

Just about anytime up to 72-96hr (and I'm talking elevated warm layers/warm wedges). I don't think this will be an exception (provided those models are correct in that scenario). The cyclone will be entering its mature stage about 12 hours before you start seeing any decent precip from it. Plenty of time for that WCB to wrap. Now if the Euro is correct, it won't matter regardless. But if I were in your position, I'd be sweating it.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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March 7-8, 2008, February 5-6, 2010, etc. Just because it doesn't happen every time doesn't mean it doesn't happen. The track the Euro has is usually pretty good for snow in the Columbus area, so I wouldn't exactly call it a done deal. If it moves further nw, sure, but right now, no.

What might make it more difficult though in this case is that you've got a 60+ kt S/SE low level jet progged into Ohio. I'd have little confidence in the warm layer being overdone in that scenario.

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Harry

Harry

Posted
Posted

March 7-8, 2008, February 5-6, 2010, etc. Just because it doesn't happen every time doesn't mean it doesn't happen. The track the Euro has is usually pretty good for snow in the Columbus area, so I wouldn't exactly call it a done deal. If it moves further nw, sure, but right now, no.

Unsure about the 2010 event but i do remember that with the March storm there was a better supply of cold for one. The system also came up more from the south vs west ala right up the apps which allowed the cold to pour into OH with a ne/nne wind well ahead of the system. With a system coming in more from the west it allows more warmth to build north just ahead of it. These systems that close off also have a habit of wrapping in more warmth as well all the way to the backside/near the surface low.

It will be damn close though if it does track over Jackson KY. That is typically a snow track for CMH.

Good luck down that way.

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buckeye

buckeye

Posted
Posted

Just about anytime up to 72-96hr (and I'm talking elevated warm layers/warm wedges). I don't think this will be an exception (provided those models are correct in that scenario). The cyclone will be entering its mature stage about 12 hours before you start seeing any decent precip from it. Plenty of time for that WCB to wrap. Now if the Euro is correct, it won't matter regardless. But if I were in your position, I'd be sweating it.

Oh trust me there's no such thing as a comfortable clean cut winter storm here. I sweat everyone

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DAFF

DAFF

Posted
Posted

DTW snow totals are all over the place. Clown maps showing 8" while forecast is 2-5". NAM is out to lunch WRT snow totals nearing 10". I expect snow ratios will be about 12:1 on average depending on the time of day the bulk of the snow lands. Daytime highs of 32 deg ....

Anything greater than 4" will be stellar.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
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DTW snow totals are all over the place. Clown maps showing 8" while forecast is 2-5". NAM is out to lunch WRT snow totals nearing 10". I expect snow ratios will be about 12:1 on average depending on the time of day the bulk of the snow lands. Daytime highs of 32 deg ....

Anything greater than 4" will be stellar.

NAM is most definitely out to lunch......but if you take it verbatum its definitely more than 10". Verbatum, the 00z NAM with a 12:1 ratio would give Detroit 15-16". Is it going to happen? No lol.

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Chicago Storm

Chicago Storm

Posted
Posted

0z ECMWF Text List

STL:

WED 06Z 26-DEC -0.3 -3.7 1015 71 91 0.02 547 536
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.7 -5.1 1014 71 95 0.03 545 534
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.7 -4.2 1016 66 64 0.01 547 534

PAH:

WED 00Z 26-DEC 1.8 0.2 1013 88 98 0.11 554 543
WED 06Z 26-DEC 1.1 -0.1 1004 96 98 0.48 549 545
WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.4 -4.6 1004 91 78 0.38 539 536
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.4 -6.1 1011 81 73 0.16 545 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.6 -6.3 1017 80 36 0.01 552 538

DEC:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.2 -4.1 1013 73 97 0.02 545 535
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.7 -4.6 1014 69 96 0.08 544 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.4 -6.4 1018 67 37 0.02 548 534

VPZ:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.0 -4.0 1014 76 100 0.06 544 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.1 -7.7 1015 80 88 0.12 544 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -0.6 -6.9 1016 78 35 0.01 548 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.4 -4.2 1019 80 21 0.01 550 535

LAF:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -3.4 1012 79 98 0.05 547 537
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.8 -5.4 1011 87 96 0.32 542 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.2 -7.6 1014 86 70 0.14 544 533

IND:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.1 -2.7 1016 71 83 0.02 551 538
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.8 -1.6 1008 86 100 0.34 547 541
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.2 -5.6 1006 90 98 0.45 541 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.8 -7.8 1012 88 78 0.10 543 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.9 -6.6 1016 86 37 0.01 549 537

BMG:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.6 -1.5 1014 81 97 0.10 552 541
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.3 -1.8 1006 89 99 0.53 546 542
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.4 -4.8 1005 88 94 0.28 540 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.3 -7.7 1012 85 69 0.06 544 534

OKK:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.6 -2.5 1012 79 98 0.06 548 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.8 -6.7 1009 89 99 0.39 542 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.9 -7.6 1012 88 87 0.21 543 533
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.7 -7.2 1015 87 45 0.01 548 535

FWA:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.4 -3.6 1014 78 98 0.03 549 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.7 -6.4 1009 90 96 0.37 543 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.3 -7.3 1011 86 89 0.26 542 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.9 -7.6 1014 84 64 0.01 545 534

MKG:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.6 -5.6 1017 79 95 0.02 544 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.8 -6.3 1019 77 80 0.01 545 531

GRR:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.2 -6.2 1016 66 84 0.01 545 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.7 -6.9 1016 82 95 0.09 544 531
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.5 -7.3 1017 79 78 0.02 544 531

BTL:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.0 -5.4 1014 73 100 0.06 545 534
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.4 -8.1 1014 85 90 0.21 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.8 -8.2 1015 85 72 0.04 544 532

MOP:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.6 1017 84 96 0.06 544 530
THU 06Z 27-DEC -4.9 -6.6 1017 83 92 0.05 543 530
THU 12Z 27-DEC -7.7 -6.6 1019 85 71 0.01 545 530

PTK:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -2.1 -4.8 1015 77 98 0.07 546 535
THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.2 -7.4 1013 87 97 0.28 543 532
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.6 -8.0 1013 88 79 0.14 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.8 -8.5 1015 88 71 0.02 544 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -2.5 -5.6 1018 78 41 0.01 547 533

DTW:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -4.5 1013 83 99 0.16 547 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.7 -7.1 1011 88 98 0.32 543 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.1 -7.6 1012 86 80 0.11 542 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.7 -8.1 1015 85 70 0.01 545 533
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.8 -5.8 1018 77 39 0.01 548 534

DET:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -1.6 -4.3 1014 80 98 0.12 547 536
THU 00Z 27-DEC -2.8 -7.0 1012 87 98 0.35 543 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.9 -7.8 1012 86 83 0.13 542 533
THU 12Z 27-DEC -2.6 -7.9 1014 86 70 0.02 544 532
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.5 -6.7 1017 76 44 0.01 547 534

TDZ:

WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.4 -3.9 1017 73 92 0.01 550 537
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.2 -5.3 1010 90 94 0.33 546 538
THU 00Z 27-DEC -1.2 -6.7 1008 92 94 0.34 542 536
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.9 -7.1 1011 87 80 0.08 542 534
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.2 -8.1 1015 84 66 0.01 546 534

DAY:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.4 -1.5 1018 73 81 0.01 554 539
WED 12Z 26-DEC -0.7 -0.6 1009 91 100 0.54 551 544
WED 18Z 26-DEC 0.3 -1.4 1002 93 62 0.41 542 541
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.5 -2.7 1004 94 55 0.11 541 538
THU 06Z 27-DEC -3.1 -6.6 1011 90 74 0.02 544 535
THU 12Z 27-DEC -4.4 -7.6 1017 88 33 0.01 550 537

HAO:

WED 06Z 26-DEC 0.8 -0.9 1016 80 92 0.05 554 541
WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.3 -0.7 1006 92 100 0.56 550 545
WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.6 1.1 1000 93 46 0.28 541 541
THU 00Z 27-DEC -0.1 -2.8 1005 91 46 0.12 541 537
THU 06Z 27-DEC -2.2 -7.0 1012 85 69 0.02 546 536
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.7 -7.1 1018 87 23 0.01 552 537

CMH:

WED 12Z 26-DEC 0.1 0.1 1010 92 100 0.48 553 544
WED 18Z 26-DEC 1.1 -0.4 1003 92 68 0.44 545 543
THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.9 -0.9 1002 95 98 0.11 541 540
THU 06Z 27-DEC 0.1 -4.8 1006 92 73 0.06 543 538
THU 12Z 27-DEC -3.3 -7.1 1015 88 53 0.01 548 536
THU 18Z 27-DEC -1.6 -5.1 1019 76 14 0.01 552 537

CLE:

WED 12Z 26-DEC -1.7 -2.0 1018 76 93 0.03 552 538
WED 18Z 26-DEC -0.9 -2.2 1010 89 98 0.51 548 540
THU 00Z 27-DEC 0.2 -4.4 1006 90 100 0.41 543 538
THU 06Z 27-DEC 0.4 -6.4 1006 88 76 0.12 542 537
THU 12Z 27-DEC -1.9 -7.9 1012 87 78 0.04 543 534
THU 18Z 27-DEC -0.5 -8.6 1016 76 45 0.01 548 535
FRI 00Z 28-DEC -1.1 -8.6 1019 82 15 0.01 551 536
FRI 06Z 28-DEC -2.6 -5.1 1021 86 10 0.01 553 537
FRI 12Z 28-DEC -3.9 -3.6 1021 87 26 0.01 553 536

YKF:

WED 18Z 26-DEC -4.4 -4.6 1021 72 71 0.01 550 533
THU 00Z 27-DEC -5.7 -5.3 1015 81 98 0.22 546 534
THU 06Z 27-DEC -6.5 -7.1 1012 87 99 0.43 542 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -7.0 -8.7 1013 85 97 0.13 540 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.4 -8.2 1014 73 75 0.03 542 531

YYZ:

THU 00Z 27-DEC -3.6 -5.5 1016 79 97 0.18 547 535
THU 06Z 27-DEC -5.0 -6.6 1012 89 99 0.51 541 532
THU 12Z 27-DEC -6.0 -8.6 1012 85 97 0.23 539 530
THU 18Z 27-DEC -4.5 -8.8 1014 76 81 0.04 540 530

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