TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm wondering if there will be one of those "surprising" heavy bands that develop near the western cutoff. Seen that happen many times in the past with these types of storms, and the amounts always end up being considerably higher than what's modeled. During the GHD storm a narrow band of very heavy snow fell over eastern Iowa, and that resulted in amounts considerably higher than forecast. These bands tend to have higher ratios of snow to water too, so they can be more efficient. Something else to think about. If I was in Chicago I'd still be feeling pretty decent about this system. I hope you're right about the possibilities! It is just a matter of tempering too much excitement so it's not a letdown if it doesn't happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Caught on to what??? It's been a SE outlier up until this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ahh the NAM clown maps. Brings back memories after a year without them lol. These are notorious for upsetting snow weenies. Remember, a few days ago we really would have been happy with any accumulating snow, as only the euro was giving us any. Well now that the NAM is spitting out these ridiculous totals....say we end up with a 4-7" snowstorm, people will lament these 14-16" clown maps and forget that 4-7" is way more than most models showed 5-6 days prior to the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's been a SE outlier up until this point... Ok, but it is still pretty far south in regards to the NAM and GFS, and I would say both of those models adjusted south. At the very least, the transfer was happening much sooner with the NAM and GFS tonight, and on the 18z GFS, there was really no transfer at all. That said, what I am looking for really is an earlier transfer from primary to secondary, not so much a further south track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's been a SE outlier up until this point... Still looks Se to me.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ahh the NAM clown maps. Brings back memories after a year without them lol. These are notorious for upsetting snow weenies. Remember, a few days ago we really would have been happy with any accumulating snow, as only the euro was giving us any. Well now that the NAM is spitting out these ridiculous totals....say we end up with a 4-7" snowstorm, people will lament these 14-16" clown maps and forget that 4-7" is way more than most models showed 5-6 days prior to the storm. Not here. If I get 4" of snow I'll be having sex with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Anybody have the GEM beyond 48? I was hoping to get a sneak at that before I retire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not here. If I get 4" of snow I'll be having sex with it. I'll be holding you to this (not that I have any doubt it will happen). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Here's the GHD storm example I was talking about. Unexpected band of very heavy snow formed towards the northwestern fringe of the main deform zone, and stalled out. Dumped very heavy accumulations. The models usually don't catch these type of bands IMO. I think they develop as the drier air from the west squeezes against the "backing" deformation zone and form an intense band of snow along that convergent zone. With this storm the models have a pretty sharp cutoff on the northwestern edge of the storm, so this area of enhancement could be pretty pronounced. Anyway, something to watch for those on the northwestern fringe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'll be holding you to this (not that I have any doubt it will happen). photos will follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GGEM continues to readjust to the other guidance... here's 63hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not here. If I get 4" of snow I'll be having sex with it. Hahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not here. If I get 4" of snow I'll be having sex with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Here's the GHD storm example I was talking about. Unexpected band of very heavy snow formed towards the northwestern fringe of the main deform zone, and stalled out. Dumped very heavy accumulations. The models usually don't catch these type of bands IMO. I think they develop as the drier air from the west squeezes against the "backing" deformation zone and form an intense band of snow along that convergent zone. With this storm the models have a pretty sharp cutoff on the northwestern edge of the storm, so this area of enhancement could be pretty pronounced. Anyway, something to watch for those on the northwestern fringe... Those are frontogenesis forced bands that tend to form on the fringes of the main deformation zones. They can actually absorb a lot of the lift and produce relatively lighter amounts for the areas surrounding it. The whole process behind how they form is complex. I seem to remember reading it was a combination of strong sfc convergence and upper level diffluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GGEM continues to readjust to the other guidance... here's 63hr: Do you have later panels, by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Do you have later panels, by chance? After that point, it quickly transfers to the DC/Baltimore area. Toronto/Detroit are on the fringe of the steady snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not here. If I get 4" of snow I'll be having sex with it. How could anyone get excited over 4" of snow? Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Still looks Se to me.... Yeah, still likely on the SE edge of guidance, but still, it is more reasonable wrt the other models compared to previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Do you have later panels, by chance? Head to this link: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html I've scrolled through to hour 72 so it appears to be updated for the 0z run through at least that point. EDIT: You're good, it shows all of the storm for Pittsburgh as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 One thing on the GGEM image is how with a low in eastern KY is there rain showing up in west KY, se IN and sw OH? Seems like its overdone on backside warm air. NAM and GFS are somewhat similar too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Meh, this run brings me an inch of snow on the backside. I can't complain because I'm one of those stupid beleivers that beleives storms like to track along the edge of the snowpack. If the models hold, that would somewhat make sense with this storm. Plus, I don't see a high pressure to keep the low pressure in Tennessee. I'm going to go ahead and look at the end of the week storm. Kentucky will be closer to the edge of that snowpack and a northwest trend would be my friend at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Head to this link: http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html I've scrolled through to hour 72 so it appears to be updated for the 0z run through at least that point. EDIT: You're good, it shows all of the storm for Pittsburgh as of now. Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 On scglweather.blogspot.com I have put up a new forecast for anyone interested. AppsRunner also has some of the storm broken down on there as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 One thing on the GGEM image is how with a low in eastern KY is there rain showing up in west KY, se IN and sw OH? Seems like its overdone on backside warm air. NAM and GFS are somewhat similar too. Great question Other than the nam...the majority of guidance takes the primary to ky or wv....this is usually a hit for the northern 2/3rds of Ohio and yet we're fighting rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 How could anyone get excited over 4" of snow? Wow! When you haven't had a significant snowstorm since 2008... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah cyclone, that was an f-gen band based around 700mb I believe. Had some thunder and lightning with it too if I recall. Bands like that are typically not very well forecast due to their local nature (resolution issues) and the non-linear processes involved. We've gotten to the point where a meso model will sometimes pop them at closer ranges but they're usually not well handled. A couple of bands like that will probably occur this time around, but it's tough to say where. A good spot to guess is typically west of the pivot point for the deformation zone (that GHD band occurred there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 Great question Other than the nam...the majority of guidance takes the primary to ky or wv....this is usually a hit for the northern 2/3rds of Ohio and yet we're fighting rain. Angle of approach and lack of very cold air in place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Great question Other than the nam...the majority of guidance takes the primary to ky or wv....this is usually a hit for the northern 2/3rds of Ohio and yet we're fighting rain. A well developed, strong trowal airstream/WCB can do that. Ask Alek about it, he just had to deal with that a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 How could anyone get excited over 4" of snow? Wow! I've never seen that on a weather forums before lol. Thought that would be a censored word Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 A well developed, strong trowal airstream/WCB can do that. Ask Alek about it, he just had to deal with that a few days ago. Exactly...here too. However, it seems there is more cold air available for places in Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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