Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 As far as MBY talk on the last page, I'm really liking my position near FWA. I may not get into the heaviest bands, but no matter which way it decides to wobble, I look to be good for a healthy snow. Northern solutions keep me on the fringe of mixing/dryslot issues and southern solutions still give me a few inches. Good luck to those to my southeast and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 How ya feeling there Hoosier? I like where we sit for once but still time for change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schaefertax Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What time does the Nam run again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 What time does the Nam run again About another 35 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 How ya feeling there Hoosier? I like where we sit for once but still time for change. Me too. The stingier Euro qpf might still fluff up to 4-5 inches back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 A little perspective from the HPC: MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 155 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012 VALID DEC 23/1200 UTC THRU DEC 27/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE 12Z ECMWF AND FINAL PREFERENCES ANY MODEL INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO IMPACT THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST. ...SHRTWV ENERGY AMPLIFYING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ON MON...REACHING THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TUE AND LIFTING TWD THE OH VLY WED... PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS / 12Z ECMWF CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE NAM AND 09Z SREF ARE ON THE NWRN SIDE OF THE SPREAD TUE AND WED REGARDING THE FCST CLOSED LOW AND SFC LOW MOVING NEWD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT ARE BY NO MEANS OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. THE GFS HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND A BIT WEST WITH THE TRACK OF THE UPPER SYSTEM / SFC LOW. THE LATEST 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE NORTH FROM ITS PREVIOUS 2 RUNS...AND IS CLOSER TO ITS 00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN...HOWEVER THE EC IS STILL A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE 12Z GEFS / 09Z SREF MEAN CLUSTER ON WED. GIVEN OVERALL RECENT TRENDS...THE RECOMMENDATION WILL NOW INCLUDE THE 12Z ECMWF ALONG WITH THE 12Z GFS...FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 00Z EC MEAN. DO NOT FEEL COMFORTABLE GOING QUITE AS FAR NW AS THE NAM/SREF...BUT ONE MUST GIVE RESPECT TO THE NRN ENSEMBLE MEANS IN CONTRAST TO THE SRN UKMET/CMC SOLUTIONS. THE 12Z CMC HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS COMPARED TO ITS 00Z RUN...BUT THE CMC CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREFERENCE WITH THE UPPER LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Me too. The stingier Euro qpf might still fluff up to 4-5 inches back this way. Ya, the qpf on the EURO is a bit meager compared to other models. Im hoping we see the NAM come back SE a bit as it made a very abrupt move NW and no models really followed. Only slight bumps NW on the others. I think after 00z tonight we may be able to make a first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 QPF totals for a few Indiana sites off the 12z runs. Obviously we have some different storm evolutions via all the models. There is some taint for BMG and EVV, depending on the model, so don't take the numbers as all snow. And finally, these are not gospel...just trying to compare the raw numbers. Proceed with caution. BMG Euro: 0.79" GFS: 0.59" NAM: 0.74" EVV Euro: ? GFS: 0.77" NAM: 0.96" FWA Euro: 0.46" GFS: 0.47" NAM: 0.84" IND Euro: 0.63" GFS: 0.66" NAM: 0.60" LAF Euro: 0.34" GFS: 0.60" NAM: 0.85" MIE Euro: ? GFS: 0.68" NAM: 0.73" OKK Euro: 0.47" GFS: 0.59" NAM: 0.73" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Updated HPC D3 D3 24 hour 4"+ probs D3 24 hour 8"+ probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And hey no worries if you miss out on this one...12z Euro has another one coming down the pike on the 28-29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z QPF/2m temp analysis for DTW NAM: 1.16", temps 27F-30F GFS: 0.44", temps 28F-31F EURO: 0.46", temps 24F-29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z QPF/2m temp analysis for DTW NAM: 1.16", temps 27F-30F GFS: 0.44", temps 28F-31F EURO: 0.46", temps 24F-29F Seems like the NAM is off its rocker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Updated HPC D3 D3 24 hour 4"+ probs D3 24 hour 8"+ probs HPC going with the NAM??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Seems like the NAM is off its rocker. Its the NAM being the NAM. It also appears to be a much wetter snow, the euro much powderier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 12z QPF/2m temp analysis for DTW NAM: 1.16", temps 27F-30F GFS: 0.44", temps 28F-31F EURO: 0.46", temps 24F-29F Does the EURO show the western part of MI getting anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 HPC going with the NAM??? Starting to look a bit better for us... Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Does the EURO show the western part of MI getting anything? looks like you're right on edge of nothing much.. slightest shift nw would be an inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I always like the NAM when the event gets within its range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 looks like you're right on edge of nothing much.. slightest shift nw would be an inch or 2. Thanks. Still waiting on our first "more than nothing much"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Beachler from LOT likes the GFS ensemble mean right now. Here was the 12z GFS ensemble mean 72hr QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 23, 2012 Author Share Posted December 23, 2012 This storm looks like it has a nice Atlantic moisture feed wrapping into the CCB later in its life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Gonna have to watch model trends and forecasts closely on this one. Plan to go from Elkhart to Highland for Christmas dinner with relatives the 25th. Was planning to spend the night and drive back east Wed. but not if I have to face adverse conditions. A jog more nw would really put most all of northern IN in serious play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Per the mets over at the NE thread the 12z euro ensemble mean is further NW than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Thanks. Still waiting on our first "more than nothing much"... yeah big fu zone between me and you. **** happens and makes you need to appreciate the 2007 and 2008 Decembers more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 This storm looks like it has a nice Atlantic moisture feed wrapping into the CCB later in its life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Per the mets over at the NE thread the 12z euro ensemble mean is further NW than the OP Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Another answer to your question blackrock... GRR .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY) ISSUED AT 321 PM EST SUN DEC 23 2012 LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN THE MODELS REGARDING THE MID WEEK SYSTEM. THIS LEADS TO MORE CONFIDENCE. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE OR LIKELY ACROSS THE CWA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD TRACK ON THE WESTERN SIDE ON THE APPALACHIANS ON WED. THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE CROSSING THE CWA APPEARS TO BE STRONG HENCE THE LIKELY POPS FROM ROUGHLY BIV TO MOP SE. REGARDING PCPN TYPE... LITTLE QUESTION AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE PRESENT TRACK THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. ALL THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN EAST COAST ENERGY TRANSFER WED NIGHT. DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THIS MAY OCCUR WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE HOW MUCH SNOW OCCURS IN SW MI. HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS STILL LOOK TO BE ACROSS THE SE CWA...WITH 6+ INCHES COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS LIKE LAN...BTL AND JXN. LESSER AMOUNTS OVER THE NW CWA...PERHAPS 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR LDM...FFX AND MKG. THE REGION SHOULD SEE A NORTH WIND DURING THE EVENT WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Precip on 18z NAM at 48hrs Christmas day looks farther west to me. We'll see what develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Precip on 18z NAM at 48hrs Christmas morning looks farther west to me. We'll see what develops. was just about to say the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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