hoosierwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Southern IN has suddenly turned into the UP of Michigan. LOL. Can't remember this much snow on the ground since 04. It's kind of concerning that the storm track seems to be setting up in this fashion. Seems like every winter it locks in and doesn't move much anymore. It's nice for awhile, but around here it can get pretty tiresome since the road crews aren't really set up for it. Rooting for this one to go wide north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted December 29, 2012 Author Share Posted December 29, 2012 LSX put's out some early numbers. Has me right t 2.1 inches. not bad. Would replenish the snow that will melt tomorrow before it get's frozen in a bit. Last night's snow has held up good with such good liquid content. Nice frozen layer at the bottom. If we can get lucky and pull 3-4 inches out of this next one before the freezer get's set up for a bit we might get 7-10 days of snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Local met is calling for a few inches here. He must like the NAM. I think we get something...probably less than that. Riding near the edge once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 RGEM really squashing this system to the south. That 1034 high is coming down too quickly for most of us to cash in on more snow! About as good as it gets... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 00z Euro bumped the precip axis north at least 50-75 miles especially from IN westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Yeah looks like the Euro brings precip even further north than the GFS. Something to watch for the I-70 crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Interesting AFD from IND. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 320 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SUN DEC 30 2012 FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WENT SLIGHTLY ABOVE MOS FOR TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASING CLOUDINESS. FRONT MOVES IN ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE. TRENDS CONTINUE TO DEPICT BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS (LIKELY) EXIST. PRECIPITATION TYPE DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE THIS FAR NORTH AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL IN ONLY THE FORM OF SNOW. AS WITH THE EVEN ON FRIDAY NIGHT...AM A LITTLE CONCERNED AT THE STRONG FRONTOGENIC FORCING AT 500H WHICH COULD PUSH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HIGHER THAN THE 1 TO 2 INCHES THE MODELS ARE PREDICTING. BUMPED UP SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA...FOR 2 TO 4 ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...2-3 ACROSS THE CENTER AND 1 TO 2 FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES (THOSE SOUTH OF THE I-70 CORRIDOR) ARE COMING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA. PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ONE NOW AND ISSUE AN SPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Looks like an inch, possibly 1.5" for LAF. Maybe. 12z NAM reduced amounts around here, but it looks more in line with the other guidance now. Initial lower/mid level dry air will be a limiting factor...but potential precipitable amounts aren't too bad really (0.50"+ for a time). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Local met is calling for a few inches here. He must like the NAM. I think we get something...probably less than that. Riding near the edge once again. I had to go and look...he's still calling for 2-3" for LAF as of this morning's update. No chance. Heck, there's some guidance that's almost a whiff for us. I believe we'll be very lucky to sneak into the 1.0-1.5" range. EDIT: ride the 12z 4km NAM I guess. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/ptot60.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I had to go and look...he's still calling for 2-3" for LAF as of this morning's update. No chance. Heck, there's some guidance that's almost a whiff for us. I believe we'll be very lucky to sneak into the 1.0-1.5" range. EDIT: ride the 12z 4km NAM I guess. http://www.meteo.psu...12z/ptot60.html It looks like it tries to get some good banding going just like Friday not. So the highest totals may be in a few narrow bands again. With 1-3 inches spread everywhere else. Im holding out hope. I've got 9-10 inches on the ground and want to break a foot! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 It looks like it tries to get some good banding going just like Friday not. So the highest totals may be in a few narrow bands again. With 1-3 inches spread everywhere else. Im holding out hope. I've got 9-10 inches on the ground and want to break a foot! I think you have an outside chance of doing that. But you're probably right about the banding. No idea where that may set up right now. 12z NMM seems to like just north of Indy (map on the left): http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/COMPRAD4CENT_12z/ptot48.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 RGEM/NAM/GFS deliver another slap in the face to the Chicago crowd, while areas to the south get some more loving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Not to turn this into a kick Chicago when they're down type of thing, but on the list I put together this morning...ORD is tied with STL at the bottom (both at 0.9" for the season). http://www.americanw...l/#entry1972077 After this one, they'll be alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I had to go and look...he's still calling for 2-3" for LAF as of this morning's update. No chance. Heck, there's some guidance that's almost a whiff for us. I believe we'll be very lucky to sneak into the 1.0-1.5" range. EDIT: ride the 12z 4km NAM I guess. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/ptot60.html Seems like there's pretty good consensus on around .15" qpf for us. A couple inches is not out of the question, but if we get lucky with banding then who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 12z Euro drier/further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Might as well... First, probably last call. Meh. FWA: 0.5-1.0" LAF/OKK: 1.0-1.5" IND/KFickle/MIE: 1.5-2.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ukrocks Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 My call for Louisville to start out as rain, deal with dry slot, and tack on a half inch to an inch of snow at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
afterimage Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 Indy AFD: SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/ ISSUED AT 242 PM EST SUN DEC 30 2012 FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION EVENT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS ARE ACTUALLY NOT THAT FAR FROM EACH OTHER...SO USED A BLEND FOR THE MOST PART. FORCING WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES. FIRST ROUND WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE AREA AFTER 18Z. GRADUALLY INCREASED POPS DURING THE MORNING...FINALLY REACHING LIKELY CATEGORY DURING THE AFTERNOON ALL AREAS. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT ENTIRE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW FREEZING...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR THE SURFACE AROUND FREEZING. THUS PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN AS SNOW. BEST FORCING MONDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO BE IN THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...SO WENT WITH AROUND AN INCH THERE. WENT LESS THAN AN INCH SOUTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF FORCING MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THUS WENT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH. LOOKS LIKE AN INCH POSSIBLE SOUTH WITH LESSER AMOUNTS NORTH. GIVEN THE ABOVE ENDED UP WITH A STORM TOTAL OF 1-2 INCHES ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON HOW THIS DEVELOPS THOUGH AS MODELS ARE HINTING AND SOME AREAS OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND DECENT LIFT IN THE SNOW GROWTH LAYER BOTH IN THE AFTERNOON AND AGAIN IN THE EVENING. THIS COULD LEAD TO BANDS OF HIGHER AMOUNTS...PERHAPS REACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WILL ISSUE A SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE UPCOMING SNOW. KEPT LOW POPS TUESDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT EXITS...BUT TUESDAY AFTERNOON NOW LOOKS DRY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN AND PROVIDE DRY AND COLD WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...TRENDED TOWARD THE COOLER OF THE GUIDANCE WITH SNOW ON THE GROUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 18z NAM barely a scraper here. I'm moving on for MBY, good luck to the rest of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 18z NAM barely a scraper here. I'm moving on for MBY, good luck to the rest of you. lol at rolling with the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 lol at rolling with the 18z NAM This one's a waste of time for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 This one's a waste of time for us. I think 1-2" is a reasonable guess for us unless more evidence besides the 18z NAM points to the contrary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I think 1-2" is a reasonable guess for us unless more evidence besides the 18z NAM points to the contrary. lol, good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 lol, good luck. 18z NAM really isn't even a case of bodily shifting south to any great extent, which we can't afford. It just cuts qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 IND goes with a WWA. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN 315 AM EST MON DEC 31 2012 ...SNOW WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT FOR CENTRAL INDIANA... .LOW PRESSURE ALONG A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO CENTRAL INDIANA. INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-311615- /O.NEW.KIND.WW.Y.0008.121231T1800Z-130101T1200Z/ CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY- BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE- PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN- JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW- DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO... CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE... SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD... SEYMOUR 315 AM EST MON DEC 31 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY. * MAIN IMPACT: TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT. * ACCUMULATIONS: TWO TO FOUR INCHES. * TIMING: THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. * WIND CHILL VALUES: AROUND 20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Their reasoning... A POSSIBILITY OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE BY THE EVENT/S END EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. AND CONSIDERING THE IMPACT THIS MAY HAVE ON TRAVEL FOR THE NYE HOLIDAY...COORDINATED WITH SEVERAL SURROUNDINGS OFFICES IN ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WHICH BEGINS AT 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND ENDS AT 7 AM TUESDAY MORNING. OPTED TO ISSUE THE ADVISORY MORE FOR IMPACT PURPOSES THAN ACTUAL SNOWFALL CRITERIA...THOUGH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL COME VERY CLOSE (AND COULD PERHAPS EXCEED?) IN SOME LOCATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 I was not paying any attention and now a WWA and a forecast of 2-4". Cool. I can say hiking in 4 miles in 10-14 inches of snow in Morgan-Monroe State Forest was quite a chore yesterday. Very beautiful though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Still pretty meh to this thing. 12z NAM hints at the first round of snow from LAF on north (even LOT's southern/southeastern CWA gets into it)...and then the second wave hits from IND on south. Could be a sort of screw zone of sorts between LAF and IND...if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Still pretty meh to this thing. 12z NAM hints at the first round of snow from LAF on north (even LOT's southern/southeastern CWA gets into it)...and then the second wave hits from IND on south. Could be a sort of screw zone of sorts between LAF and IND...if it's right. There's a surprise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2012 Share Posted December 31, 2012 Still pretty meh to this thing. 12z NAM hints at the first round of snow from LAF on north (even LOT's southern/southeastern CWA gets into it)...and then the second wave hits from IND on south. Could be a sort of screw zone of sorts between LAF and IND...if it's right. FWIW the 12z RAP gives you 0.30" of precip. Would make for a decent little system for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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