MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The one after this storm is looking really interesting on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 PNA, AO, and NAO all are coming to a cross-road at that juncture (Jan. 2). Thereafter, PNA looks to go neutral, and AO and NAO go to hell in a handbasket. Pattern could get pretty ugly for snow after the first few days of Jan. The one after this storm is looking really interesting on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The more I look at the orientation of the 500 mb pattern, the less excited I feel about developing this system further. I think this system would head west again if it were to organize. It continues to make attempts at closing off an 850 mg low over OH which would be disasterous for us. Key player is the energy off the CA coast which is preventing this system from diving further SE. Another key point: no 50/50 low and terrible confluence over the NE. Let's get this system in and out as quickly as possible and salvage the 3-5 inches of snow. I do see a 50/50 low...there's a 528dm ULL near Newfoundland at 87 hours on the GFS with higher heights ahead of it in the North Atlantic, though certainly not a true block: I'm not too worried about the system going too far west given that heights on the East Coast actually trended lower from the 18z GFS to the 0z GFS...not to mention that the Euro is well off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The one after this storm is looking really interesting on the GFS. That one has a ton of potential if the shortwave along the west coast doesn't cut off as some models were thinking it would. If it ejects to the north and east, there's a pretty good chance it will produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 ive seen alot of these disorganized storms in my lifetime not even deliver on the 2-5 inches where the thing is so ragged on a radar that its pretty easy to tell its going to bust, will this be one of those Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z GGEM is really weak and barely grazes the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I think we'll do ok. I'll take a 3-6" event, unfortunately the timing is off between blocking episodes, a favorable PNA/Pacific, and confluence so we get mostly a big rainmaker tomorrow and then a more light to moderate event a few days after but the pattern remains active nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Hope we don't lose the favorable pacific signal in the long range, since the NAO goes Positive. If we do, it may turn quite mild after the first week of JAN. With that said, Ill take a modest snowfall this weekend if we can't get the phase (bomb scenario) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This just in from DT ** BRIEF COMMENTS OF DEC 30 AND JAN 3 THREATS.... 0Z GFS MODEL the 0z WED GFS run has the dec 30 event forming further south and COLDER ...moving towards the EURO solution. NOT major snowstorm.. NOT... but decent ...snow for western and sw VA north central VA and Northeast VA Central and eastern MD Philly... NJ into NYC. STILL WORRIED ABOUT SURFACE TEMPS in and around RICHMOND FOR DEC 29-30 ABOUT JAN 3, 2013 EVENT.. See image... bigger threat and more cold airSee More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 GEM doesn't even have a SLP at 84 Hr. DCA crowd probably loves this run. 0z GGEM is really weak and barely grazes the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12096.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z GEFS http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12096.gif right now .25 - .50 storm total - still a lot of time to go - 4 days out and lots of potential in the NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 0z GEFS http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12096.gif That's a pretty decent signal from the ensemble mean for a coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 EURO looks like the Ukie which was ots, the lead vort kinda dampens out the flow as the northern stream dives in on the backside. We have some time to correct this but its getting close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro is terrible...it's pretty clear now that the initial shortwave that moves into the Plains is really muddling the set up as well. That combined with the somewhat progressive pattern out west and the late in the game northern stream interaction means the potential is high for this to slip east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 These "thread the needle" events are that way for a reason, and we need pretty much perfect timing and luck for a big storm here. Nothing north of us to force a phase or slow the flow down means more than likely this is one for the fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If something doesn't change in the next 24-36hrs I think you can pretty much write this one off and look towards the next storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If something doesn't change in the next 24-36hrs I think you can pretty much write this one off and look towards the next storm threat. We could still score a light snow from a disorganized coastal storm as the GFS portrayed. The biggest threat is around 1/3 with the SW cut-off low ejecting into a very cold airmass that gets pulled down behind this "coastal." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am certainly willing to give it a little more time before pulling the plug on this one, and I agree with you on a light snow event. On a more positive note, if this weekends storm doesn't wind up working out which looks to be the case right now as far as a bigger storm is concerned then hopefully "3rd time is a charm" for the storm potential around Jan. 3rd. We could still score a light snow from a disorganized coastal storm as the GFS portrayed. The biggest threat is around 1/3 with the SW cut-off low ejecting into a very cold airmass that gets pulled down behind this "coastal." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Looks like EURO buried the wave into the southwest for the Jan 3rd event, typical Bias, we need that baby to eject east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I am certainly willing to give it a little more time before pulling the plug on this one, and I agree with you on a light snow event. On a more positive note, if this weekends storm doesn't wind up working out which looks to be the case right now as far as a bigger storm is concerned then hopefully "3rd time is a charm" for the storm potential around Jan. 3rd. More like 4th time. 1st was Xmas wave, 2nd is tomorrow's system, 3rd is 29-30 and 4 would be whatever's next. This isn't good, if something doesn't produce by the 1st week of January, then we could be in trouble as the PNA will break down, the NAO/AO will be positive and we'll likely torch by mid January. It's amazing how some years it'll snow no matter what the setup is and other years it's like pulling teeth. I remember 2008-2009 being like that until we finally got a decent storm in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 West coast trof , dappens trof in east. If u look at the ridge out west for the 27 ths storm. You will see where the room for development occurs on the east coast. Now look at ths storm same period. There's a trof there , will not yield similar deepening But hey if your in NYC you gotta take anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I was referring to "3rd time is a charm" for a larger and stronger storm potential. The Christmas Eve wave was never expected to be a big storm, it was always a light event. Tomorrow's storm, this weekends storm potential, and next weeks potential all had/have the potential to be significant snow producers. More like 4th time. 1st was Xmas wave, 2nd is tomorrow's system, 3rd is 29-30 and 4 would be whatever's next. This isn't good, if something doesn't produce by the 1st week of January, then we could be in trouble as the PNA will break down, the NAO/AO will be positive and we'll likely torch by mid January. It's amazing how some years it'll snow no matter what the setup is and other years it's like pulling teeth. I remember 2008-2009 being like that until we finally got a decent storm in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 No reason to give up on the 30th storm right now and early january is looking very favorable. Not sure how the pattern breaking down after that is so set in stone either lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That was actually the GFS ensembles not the Euro ensembles. DT talking about euro ens "0.25 to 0.60" liquid into BOS CT NJ NYC PHL DCA BWI a bit more over CHO LYH ROA" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That was actually the GFS ensembles not the Euro ensembles. ya,thought i deleted my post pretty quick,but not quick enough apparently lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 That was actually the GFS ensembles not the Euro ensembles. I will take 3 to 6 right now Ensembles were right with todays storm. So will ride em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I will take 3 to 6 right now Ensembles were right with todays storm. So will ride em. You must be a medium! how much for a session? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The GEFS and Euro ensemble mean also shifted southeast. Ehhh, this event might be slipping away from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 PNA, AO, and NAO all are coming to a cross-road at that juncture (Jan. 2). Thereafter, PNA looks to go neutral, and AO and NAO go to hell in a handbasket. Pattern could get pretty ugly for snow after the first few days of Jan. If it's not going to snow then bring on spring, better yet summer!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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