12/29 - New Years Storm Threat Discussion

[nzucker]

NAM and NOGAPS are right about where you want them right now for this event. NAM a bit amped up at 84 hours and 18Z NOGAPS was out to sea, not too wide right but enough that it was a miss. I think if we don't unanimously lose this storm on all models in the next 24 hours its going to be a hit for someone up the coast.

The NAM still misses the phase though at 84 hours....I guess you can call it an incomplete phase but you have a broad trough with some of the northern stream seemingly being left behind over Illinois:

[NEG NAO]

My gut feeling is that this goes mainly out to sea. The trough just doesn't sharpen up enough fast enough and if it did so, I could even see it running over us or just to our west. That's how this fast flow often works, trough sharpens, storms track too far to the left, otherwise they go OTS. ECMWF looked like we'd be on the nw edge of the precip but the 00Z NAM at 84 hours is more encouraging and I would not yet write this storm off.

WX/PT

Very true - December 26, 2010 could be considered a glancing blow - rerun the radar from this page was a true coastal storm and if this storm on the 29th intensifies offshore the same type of thing could happen

http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KEWR/2010/12/26/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA

[CooL]

Yeah nam is a bit disjointed but overall the setup is there for something big

[MJO812]

Very true - December 26, 2010 could be considered a glancing blow - rerun the radar from this page was a true coastal storm and if this storm on the 29th intensifies offshore the same type of thing could happen

http://www.wundergro...eq_statename=NA

How was 12/26 a glancing blow?

[Storm At Sea]

Also no 50/50 low on the NAM; quick moving system and never really materializes aloft until it's too late.

[NEG NAO]

How was 12/26 a glancing blow?

how soon we forget the snow totals from that storm region wide - check out the differences in the area from west to east thats what I mean

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2011/26-Dec-10.html

[earthlight]

It's pretty encouraging to see almost every model showing at least an advisory level event at this range for many areas. We'll see if we can get the northern stream more involved.

[earthlight]

Very true - December 26, 2010 could be considered a glancing blow

[gkrangers]

I got like 400 inches of snow from that storm.

[SnowGoose69]

how soon we forget the snow totals from that storm region wide - check out the differences in the area from west to east thats what I mean

http://www.raymondcm.../26-Dec-10.html

12/20/09 was a much truer glancing blow, that storm came as close as any I can recall to busting completely based on track inside 12 hours. There was a period that evening I thought it was going to miss completely.

[MJO812]

I got like 400 inches of snow from that storm.

I got 40,000,000 inches.

[Allsnow]

Gfs going to be further west this run. Higher hgt along coast at 84

[MJO812]

Miller A on this run coming up. Looks nice at 90.

[earthlight]

Northern stream is much more involved but the entire thing is still generally a mess at 90 hr.

[Allsnow]

Hr 90 light snow for area. Broad low in south east

[WintersGrasp]

Not organized quickly enough but still a 3-5" snowfall for many of us

[MJO812]

Light to moderate snow event. Still disorganized.

[Allsnow]

1008 over obx at 93. Light snow on going. South jersey moderate

[gkrangers]

Miller A on this run coming up. Looks nice at 90.

Northern stream is much more involved but the entire thing is still generally a mess at 90 hr.

Love the internet.

[WintersGrasp]

Lets be positive though...I'd much rather have the chance of 3-5" or out to sea, than the option of a possible wet snow with the likelihood that we get just rain NW shifts are more likely

[nzucker]

Northern stream is much more involved but the entire thing is still generally a mess at 90 hr.

It's really trying to phase the northern stream in...the 0z run is a bit slower which allows it to capture some of the northern stream shortwave, but it's just a little too late to the party I think:

[WintersGrasp]

Love the internet.

Haha...it looks similar to the previous runs no big change at all

[ace0927]

Love the internet.

you should only be listening to one of those two....

[MJO812]

you should only be listening to one of those two....

Shhh

[WintersGrasp]

Very fast mover without a phase is what is modeled. About 4 or 5 hours of light snow for NYC

[Dsnowx53]

Pros: it seems that there is good consensus for a 2-4 or 3-5" event, regardless of what ultimately happens with the "main wave".

Cons: it's not only that the storm is too far east, but it also organizes too late. I'd rather it be bombing out and maturing with a wide precip shield at our latitude and just have all of that be suppressed as opposed to hoping for earlier organization AND a further NW trend. Fortunately, those two things are somewhat correlated.

Fortunately, the Euro had the storm more organized at our latitude, but just too far east for the major snows.

[Dsnowx53]

The pattern is also a bit progressive, which might not give a lot of time for the northern stream to catch up with the southern stream.

There is still lots of potential, of course, given the energy associated with the trough and the baroclinicity. Any more phasing and this can blow up pretty quickly. It won't take much change for this to turn into a 1-2' bomb for us, but I'm just not convinced we'll get those changes.

[WintersGrasp]

I'm actually thinking....so many storms, so little time...I highly doubt each of these storms will turn out as strong as they all were once modeled. The Xmas storm was minor event, the current event (although rain for many of us) is a major storm....the New Years event will most likely be a minor event, with the event on the 2-3rd more than likely being a major one. As I said, I'm VERY confident that we get at least one 6"+ storm out of this....signs point toward it being the jan 2-3 storm

[isnice]

Pros: it seems that there is good consensus for a 2-4 or 3-5" event, regardless of what ultimately happens with the "main wave".

Cons: it's not only that the storm is too far east, but it also organizes too late. I'd rather it be bombing out and maturing with a wide precip shield at our latitude and just have all of that be suppressed as opposed to hoping for earlier organization AND a further NW trend. Fortunately, those two things are somewhat correlated.

Fortunately, the Euro had the storm more organized at our latitude, but just too far east for the major snows.

Well, something can be said for the lack of northern stream involvement. If the northern stream doesn't fully phase, then of course the system is not going to bomb out earlier on and will remain weaker. If the northern stream does get involved, then we'll see this thing bomb out and pull further northwest with future model runs. Good to be tracking one of these kinds of storms though.

[Storm At Sea]

The more I look at the orientation of the 500 mb pattern, the less excited I feel about developing this system further. I think this system would head west again if it were to organize. It continues to make attempts at closing off an 850 mg low over OH which would be disasterous for us. Key player is the energy off the CA coast which is preventing this system from diving further SE. Another key point: no 50/50 low and terrible confluence over the NE. Let's get this system in and out as quickly as possible and salvage the 3-5 inches of snow.

Pros: it seems that there is good consensus for a 2-4 or 3-5" event, regardless of what ultimately happens with the "main wave".

Cons: it's not only that the storm is too far east, but it also organizes too late. I'd rather it be bombing out and maturing with a wide precip shield at our latitude and just have all of that be suppressed as opposed to hoping for earlier organization AND a further NW trend. Fortunately, those two things are somewhat correlated.

Fortunately, the Euro had the storm more organized at our latitude, but just too far east for the major snows.