Chris L Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just get the polar jet to dig with the stj, we would get slammed, KU amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A tiny shift in track will make a huge difference. You can see a beautiful leaf pattern right before the storm bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A tiny shift in track will make a huge difference. You can see a beautiful leaf pattern right before the storm bombs out. This one has a ton of potential. The Euro ensembles came back north and west at 12z compared to the 00z run...with more precipitation. A lot hinges on both the northern stream interaction and the ridging out west. We'll have to watch those two features very carefully. Less northern stream interaction and a more progressive ridge moving through the Plains will make it very hard to get this storm close to the coast. But if we can get both to work in our favor, this storm has tremendous potential to provide heavy snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This one has a ton of potential. The Euro ensembles came back north and west at 12z compared to the 00z run...with more precipitation. A lot hinges on both the northern stream interaction and the ridging out west. We'll have to watch those two features very carefully. Less northern stream interaction and a more progressive ridge moving through the Plains will make it very hard to get this storm close to the coast. But if we can get both to work in our favor, this storm has tremendous potential to provide heavy snows. This seems to be about 96 hours away, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This one has a ton of potential. The Euro ensembles came back north and west at 12z compared to the 00z run...with more precipitation. A lot hinges on both the northern stream interaction and the ridging out west. We'll have to watch those two features very carefully. Less northern stream interaction and a more progressive ridge moving through the Plains will make it very hard to get this storm close to the coast. But if we can get both to work in our favor, this storm has tremendous potential to provide heavy snows. Yeah, the strength of the trough coming into the west coupled with the PV showing up near Hudson Bay should be key to the exact track. It's great to even be seeing this potential on a map after what we have been through so far this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This seems to be about 96 hours away, correct? Correct, give or take a few hours as the guidance can sometimes adjust timing/etc as we approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS is way more amplified with the height field on the east coast through 78 hrs on the 18z run...northern stream getting involved as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Correct, give or take a few hours as the guidance can sometimes adjust timing/etc as we approach. About to phase? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Param&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F25%2F2012+18UTC&rname=UPPER+AIR+PARMS&pname=500_vort_ht&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=081&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The N stream shortwave crossing the international border is still a little too slow...and now because of the convoluted setup aloft we have the primary shortwave going pretty far northeast. Very unorganized in general. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The N stream shortwave crossing the international border is still a little too slow...and now because of the convoluted setup aloft we have the primary shortwave going pretty far northeast. Very unorganized in general. Surface and 850's look okay at the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Oy vey, almost looks like the same set up as the mid-week storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Oy vey, almost looks like the same set up as the mid-week storm. Primary is much weaker though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The N stream shortwave crossing the international border is still a little too slow...and now because of the convoluted setup aloft we have the primary shortwave going pretty far northeast. Very unorganized in general. I don't like the way the 18z GFS handles the phase. At 78 hours, you have the southern energy over Arkansas with a nice strong piece of vorticity dropping through Iowa. Given how close together they are, I think we should see a phase here, and that would cause everything to track further south with a low pressure over the TN Valley instead of the OH Valley: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Primary is much weaker though. .25-.50 area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Primary is much weaker though. Yes, and the transfer is earlier. I did mention this yesterday night, that the GFS looked like it was trending towards cutting the primary. I was yelled at by some other posters, but if there's anything that parallels my thoughts from yesterday evening, it's this run. That being said, it's a good thing most guidance is out to sea. The GFS is literally the only model that's indicating such a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Also -- a little off topic...but it doesn't look like the medium range guidance wants to cut off that big shortwave digging into CA around Day 7 anymore. That presents massive potential down the road with the big confluent flow in place over the Northeast and cold high to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't like the way the 18z GFS handles the phase. At 78 hours, you have the southern energy over Arkansas with a nice strong piece of vorticity dropping through Iowa. Given how close together they are, I think we should see a phase here, and that would cause everything to track further south with a low pressure over the TN Valley instead of the OH Valley: This storm will be a miss or a snow event most likely. I think the pattern from the Midwest to West is a bit too progressive and we have that 50/50 low for it to go inland. I'm certainly more worried about whiffing now than anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 any stats on how many years from the 50s until now of a number of 3" snowstorms that we've gotten ? I'd assume we'd average one per year or more. That is the only reason I find it tough to NOT consider a 3" event minor....because it happens every year season.....total...........1.........2.........3.........4........5........6........7........8........ 1959-60....39.2".....13.7"...14.7"... 1960-61....54.7".....15.2".....9.9".....3.8"..17.4"... 1961-62....18.1".......6.2".....2.9" 1962-63....16.3".......2.7".....4.2".... 1963-64....44.7".......6.6"...12.5".....6.8"....4.9" 1964-65....24.4".......2.7".....6.3".....4.6"....3.2".... 1965-66....21.4".......6.8".....3.1".....6.3" 1966-67....51.5".......7.1".....2.7"...12.5"....3.8".....3.0"....9.8" 1967-68....19.5".......3.2".....3.3".....6.6".... 1968-69....30.2".......5.2"...15.3".....2.8"....2.8" 1969-70....25.6".......6.8".....3.0".....3.4"....4.0" 1970-71....15.5".......6.4"..... 1971-72....22.9".......4.7".....5.7"....5.2".... 1972-73......2.8".......1.8".... 1973-74....23.5".......2.8".....4.3"....6.0"....3.2".... 1974-75....13.1".......2.7".....7.8".... 1975-76....17.3".......4.0".....4.2".... 1976-77....24.5".......3.1".....2.8"....5.2"....2.9".... 1977-78....50.7".......3.0"...13.6"..17.7"....4.2".....5.0". 1978-79....29.4".......3.1".....5.0"..12.7" 1979-80....12.8".......3.5".....4.6" 1980-81....19.4".......4.9".....8.6" 1981-82....24.6".......5.8".....3.5"....9.6" 1982-83....27.2".......3.0".....3.9"..17.6"... 1983-84....25.4".......5.1".....4.6"....6.9"....3.3" 1984-85....24.1".......4.8".....4.1"....4.3"....5.7".... 1985-86....13.0".......4.5".....4.5"..... 1986-87....23.1".......8.1".....3.5"....4.2".... 1987-88....19.1".......5.8".....5.4"....2.7"..... 1988-89......8.1".......5.0"..... 1989-90....13.4".......4.7".....3.1".... 1990-91....24.9".......7.2".....5.7"....8.9" 1991-92....12.6".......6.2".....3.2" 1992-93....24.5".......3.4".....4.3"..10.6"... 1993-94....53.4".......2.9".....4.0"....2.9"....4.5"....9.0"..12.8"....5.0"....2.8" 1994-95....11.8".....10.8".... 1995-96....75.6".......2.9".....7.7"..20.2"....7.3"..10.7"....4.6"....4.5"....4.1".. 1996-97....10.0".......3.5".... 1997-98......5.5".......5.0" 1998-99....12.7".......4.5" 1999-00....16.3".......5.5".....3.0".... 2000-01....35.0".....12.0".....6.0"....3.5"....5.8"....3.5".... 2001-02......3.5".......3.0" 2002-03....49.3".......6.0".....5.0"....5.3"..19.8"....3.5"....4.0" 2003-04....42.6".....14.0".....5.8"....5.7"..10.3"....3.5".... 2004-05....41.0".....13.8".....5.0"....6.0"....7.7".... 2005-06....40.0".......5.8"...26.9"... 2006-07....12.4".......5.5" 2007-08....11.9".......2.8"....6.0".... 2008-09....27.6".......4.5"....3.0"....4.3".....8.3" 2009-10....51.4".....10.9"..10.0"....5.0"...20.9" 2010-11....61.9".....20.0"....9.1"....4.2"...19.0"....3.2". 2011-12......7.4".......2.9".....4.3".. 2012-13......4.7".......4.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wow uncle thank you for all of that info ! Very interesting stuff to look at. And yes...I surely agree that I have been spoiled in my lifetime !! Haha...I'm 28...I've always been fascinated with snow but it was the blizzard of 96 that REALLY made me appreciate what a winter wonderland could be ! Since then, as you've said, we've had many many more 6"+ snowstorms. What is most noticeable though to me from those numbers are that the snowfall totals from year to year vary wildly from record breaking to practically nothing....whereas in the past it seems there were chunks of years that were solid and those that were not good at all snow-wise. Thanks again for the data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Wow uncle thank you for all of that info ! Very interesting stuff to look at. And yes...I surely agree that I have been spoiled in my lifetime !! Haha...I'm 28...I've always been fascinated with snow but it was the blizzard of 96 that REALLY made me appreciate what a winter wonderland could be ! Since then, as you've said, we've had many many more 6"+ snowstorms. What is most noticeable though to me from those numbers are that the snowfall totals from year to year vary wildly from record breaking to practically nothing....whereas in the past it seems there were chunks of years that were solid and those that were not good at all snow-wise. Thanks again for the data you were 12 in 1996...I was 12 in 1960-61...epic snow years...I lived in Wellsville N.Y. when I was two to four years old...I remember looking at the snow from my bedroom window...My first big storm in the City came in 1956 when I was seven...You were nine in 1993 for your first big storm...I was nine in 1958...We both saw a big March storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 any stats on how many years from the 50s until now of a number of 3" snowstorms that we've gotten ? I'd assume we'd average one per year or more. That is the only reason I find it tough to NOT consider a 3" event minor....because it happens every year Not in 1972-3 or 2001-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 you were 12 in 1996...I was 12 in 1960-61...epic snow years...I lived in Wellsville N.Y. when I was two to four years old...I remember looking at the snow from my bedroom window...My first big storm in the City came in 1956 when I was seven...You were nine in 1993 for your first big storm...I was nine in 1958...We both saw a big March storm.... 2010-2011 was such an amazing year....we had more snow on the ground then than we did even in 96...most snow ive ever seen in this area. ive seen 5 feet on the ground in redfield. NY....Not sure if you had a chance to check it out...but a few years back high point state park in northern NJ had snow on the ground that was literally 4 feet + deep. Walked through it with it up to my waist and higher ! Hope we get consecutive storms like that again ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 2010-2011 was such an amazing year....we had more snow on the ground then than we did even in 96...most snow ive ever seen in this area. ive seen 5 feet on the ground in redfield. NY....Not sure if you had a chance to check it out...but a few years back high point state park in northern NJ had snow on the ground that was literally 4 feet + deep. Walked through it with it up to my waist and higher ! Hope we get consecutive storms like that again ! One of those few cases where La Niña worked in our favor, aiding the cold and keeping out warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 00Z NAM looks like 12Z Euro. Weak low heading towards Delmarva. Aloft remains disorganized. No closure of 850mb. Northern stream trying to get involved, but just 6 hrs too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM and NOGAPS are right about where you want them right now for this event. NAM a bit amped up at 84 hours and 18Z NOGAPS was out to sea, not too wide right but enough that it was a miss. I think if we don't unanimously lose this storm on all models in the next 24 hours its going to be a hit for someone up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I normally like to see an off cycle run show something big once a day on the GFS or Euro, which we haven't really seen in several days. Several of the GFS ensemble members showed a KU storm for much of the I-95. This is starting to look like a typical 3-6 inch. event; nothing more and nothing less. NAM and NOGAPS are right about where you want them right now for this event. NAM a bit amped up at 84 hours and 18Z NOGAPS was out to sea, not too wide right but enough that it was a miss. I think if we don't unanimously lose this storm on all models in the next 24 hours its going to be a hit for someone up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I normally like to see an off cycle run show something big once a day on the GFS or Euro, which we haven't really seen in several days. Several of the GFS ensemble members showed a KU storm for much of the I-95. This is starting to look like a typical 3-6 inch. event; nothing more and nothing less. I could see this being one of those storms where the surface low misses but the upper feature in the northern branch actually puts out 2-4 inches of snow as it just misses the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 NAM and NOGAPS are right about where you want them right now for this event. NAM a bit amped up at 84 hours and 18Z NOGAPS was out to sea, not too wide right but enough that it was a miss. I think if we don't unanimously lose this storm on all models in the next 24 hours its going to be a hit for someone up the coast. My gut feeling is that this goes mainly out to sea. The trough just doesn't sharpen up enough fast enough and if it did so, I could even see it running over us or just to our west. That's how this fast flow often works, trough sharpens, storms track too far to the left, otherwise they go OTS. ECMWF looked like we'd be on the nw edge of the precip but the 00Z NAM at 84 hours is more encouraging and I would not yet write this storm off. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I have access to the Euro precip maps. Euro was a glancing blow, bt at least 0.5 to 0.6 for many from coastal NJ to NYC. Surface temps right around freezing. Most of the precip falls in the late AM. My gut feeling is that this goes mainly out to sea. The trough just doesn't sharpen up enough fast enough and if it did so, I could even see it running over us or just to our west. That's how this fast flow often works, trough sharpens, storms track too far to the left, otherwise they go OTS. ECMWF looked like we'd be on the nw edge of the precip but the 00Z NAM at 84 hours is more encouraging and I would not yet write this storm off. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I normally like to see an off cycle run show something big once a day on the GFS or Euro, which we haven't really seen in several days. Several of the GFS ensemble members showed a KU storm for much of the I-95. This is starting to look like a typical 3-6 inch. event; nothing more and nothing less. If it were able to get in here and surface temps were low enough (a slight question mark IMO), I would probably agree. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.