ineedsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 957mb A little less, storm absolutely detonates though. 966mb? Phases ANY sooner and we are talking big time storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 One thing I have noticed in the last few runs is a new trof slipping down the cali coastline .It`s goin to be interesting to see with no ridge line on the West coast what will make the system in the SE turn the corner and come close enough to the East coast . Lets hope the speed of that trof is just modeled a little too quick . You really would like to see a nice ridge out west to feel comfortable with the idea that it avoids slipping SE . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 957mb At our Lat. ~965 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 One thing I have noticed in the last few runs is a new trof slipping down the cali coastline .It`s goin to be interesting to see with no ridge line on the West coast what will make the system in the SE turn the corner and come close enough to the East coast . Lets hope the speed of that trof is just modeled a little too quick . You really would like to see a nice ridge out west to feel comfortable with the idea that it avoids slipping SE . We need the trough coming into the West to be a little slower so the low doesn't get kicked too far out to the east of Cape Cod. The Euro ensemble mean is too progressive on this run to get closer to the coast. So the Pacific could still mess things up here if the ensemble mean doesn't start trending closer to the coast over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 12z GFS is coming in better. Light to moderate snow at 108 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 We need the trough coming into the West to be a little slower so the low doesn't get kicked too far out to the east of Cape Cod. The Euro ensemble mean is too progressive on this run to get closer to the coast. So the Pacific could still mess things up here if the ensemble mean doesn't start trending closer to the coast over the next few days. Yeh , That trof could flatten you out downstream , just a timing issue will def get sorted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Right now at least on the GFS it's a fast moving storm that brushes NYC with 3 or 4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This is about 3-6 inch storm on the gfs today. Still kind of strong out, gets it act together a little to Far East. But at this stage in the game, I like we're we sit. Gfs moved it up also, as in faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 3-6 snows are good enough, why is everyone looking for a huge dump which we do not need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 3-6 snows are good enough, why is everyone looking for a huge dump which we do not need I'll take both. Its a weatherboard thats why people want extreme weather here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeh , That trof could flatten you out downstream , just a timing issue will def get sorted Some stronger ridging across the central U.S. up into Canada would be very helpful. Hopefully, this is just the ens mean smoothing things out too much at this point. The next few days will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 3-6 snows are good enough, why is everyone looking for a huge dump which we do not need3-6 inch snows are great...but I think we're all actually looking for a huge dump of snow that's why we are in these storm/model threads about future storms....not to speak of how we love minor snow events, but watch and hope it turns into a major one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This is where you want the GFS 5 days out . The best storms are those that are progged to your South and East 3 to 5 days out . as it is , its still a nice set up . Not every storm is goin to be a KU storm . But you`re in the game . Patience is required . At this point I thnk we will take anything . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Mount Holly already has fifty percent chance of snow over four days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's probably the best chance we've had so far although it's a bit too flat and progressive on the latest models, excluding the ECM. Hopefully that can change over the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 3-6 inch snows are great...but I think we're all actually looking for a huge dump of snow that's why we are in these storm/model threads about future storms....not to speak of how we love minor snow events, but watch and hope it turns into a major one 3-6 storms are not minor events...you guys are showing your youth...the mega storms we had in recent past are exceptions...like rare exceptions...most years we are full of 3-6 inch snows and nothing more. people too spoiled and set themselves up for disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 3-6 storms are not minor events...you guys are showing your youth...the mega storms we had in recent past are exceptions...like rare exceptions...most years we are full of 3-6 inch snows and nothing more. people too spoiled and set themselves up for disappointmenti understand what you're saying but I think even for NYC area and nearby suburbs 3 or 4" events are fairly minor....due to the fact that this area CAN get a nor'easter along the coast. If you average 30" a year, a storm that gives you just 1/10th if that can't really be anything but "minor" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro through 96 looks like it will be further se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Precip makes it into the NYC metro this run, but by 114 hours it's south of the Benchmark. By 120, it's a bomb to the east of the 40/70. Really hope we can salvage something from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro through 96 looks like it will be further se i fear the very rare 3-day double-whammy sandwich screw job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 3-6 storms are not minor events...you guys are showing your youth...the mega storms we had in recent past are exceptions...like rare exceptions...most years we are full of 3-6 inch snows and nothing more. people too spoiled and set themselves up for disappointment since 1959-60 19 of 53 years had a snowstorm 10" or more...since 2000-01 we got 7 of 12 years with a big storm...since 1992-93 11 of 20 years...from 1969-70 to 1991-92 NYC had 3 of 23 years with a storm 10" or more...Younger people are being spoiled like I was in the late 50's and 1960's...Will we continue seeing major snowstorms at a record pace?...Or will we hit a drought when everything that can go wrong lasts 10 years?...We had our one 4" or greater event so far...It looks like we might pick up a few inches before New Years day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'd piss on a sparkplug for a half foot storm wow that would perk me right up.peace see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 HPC still gives us .25 - .50 qpf for the 12/29 event - 3 - 5 inches all snow assuming normal ratio's http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The bombing storm that is tomorrow's system is what I think prevents this from getting all the way up the coast. The Euro also is over digging a trough over the SW US as usual. This could be impacting the wavelength of the ridge over the Plains and thus the digging or phasing of the storm over the East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hey unc happy holidays and good health for you and your family. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hey unc happy holidays and good health for you and your family. same to you...Lets hope fore a better year than 2012... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm still liking this, H5 doesn't look so bad to me. A few adjustments and we're there. I'm not sure why people are giving up hope already. Would you rather see this thing going into buffalo at this time or where it is being progged? The last year has really jaded many. At least its an actual threat INSIDE of d7+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 since 1959-60 19 of 53 years had a snowstorm 10" or more...since 2000-01 we got 7 of 12 years with a big storm...since 1992-93 11 of 20 years...from 1969-70 to 1991-92 NYC had 3 of 23 years with a storm 10" or more...Younger people are being spoiled like I was in the late 50's and 1960's...Will we continue seeing major snowstorms at a record pace?...Or will we hit a drought when everything that can go wrong lasts 10 years?...We had our one 4" or greater event so far...It looks like we might pick up a few inches before New Years day...any stats on how many years from the 50s until now of a number of 3" snowstorms that we've gotten ? I'd assume we'd average one per year or more. That is the only reason I find it tough to NOT consider a 3" event minor....because it happens every year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 That's a really strong signal on the GEFS, John. I tend to think that the worse case scenario with this one is a disjointed event that lays down 2-4"...seems like enough models are brushing the coast to expect some snow. We could see a KU if the northern branch phases earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.