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12/29 - New Years Storm Threat Discussion


Dsnowx53

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One thing I have noticed in the last few runs is a new trof slipping down the cali coastline .It`s goin to be interesting to see with no ridge line on the West coast what will make the system in the SE turn the corner and come close enough to the East coast .

Lets hope the speed of that trof is just modeled a little too quick . You really would like to see a nice ridge out west to feel comfortable with the idea that it avoids slipping SE .

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One thing I have noticed in the last few runs is a new trof slipping down the cali coastline .It`s goin to be interesting to see with no ridge line on the West coast what will make the system in the SE turn the corner and come close enough to the East coast .

Lets hope the speed of that trof is just modeled a little too quick . You really would like to see a nice ridge out west to feel comfortable with the idea that it avoids slipping SE .

We need the trough coming into the West to be a little slower so the low doesn't get kicked too far out to the east

of Cape Cod. The Euro ensemble mean is too progressive on this run to get closer to the coast. So the Pacific

could still mess things up here if the ensemble mean doesn't start trending closer to the coast over the next few

days.

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We need the trough coming into the West to be a little slower so the low doesn't get kicked too far out to the east

of Cape Cod. The Euro ensemble mean is too progressive on this run to get closer to the coast. So the Pacific

could still mess things up here if the ensemble mean doesn't start trending closer to the coast over the next few

days.

Yeh , That trof could flatten you out downstream , just a timing issue will def get sorted

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Yeh , That trof could flatten you out downstream , just a timing issue will def get sorted

Some stronger ridging across the central U.S. up into Canada would be very helpful.

Hopefully, this is just the ens mean smoothing things out too much at this point. The

next few days will tell the tale.

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3-6 snows are good enough, why is everyone looking for a huge dump which we do not need
3-6 inch snows are great...but I think we're all actually looking for a huge dump of snow :) that's why we are in these storm/model threads about future storms....not to speak of how we love minor snow events, but watch and hope it turns into a major one :)
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This is where you want the GFS 5 days out . The best storms are those that are progged to your South and East 3 to 5 days out .

as it is , its still a nice set up .

Not every storm is goin to be a KU storm . But you`re in the game .

Patience is required .

At this point I thnk we will take anything .

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3-6 inch snows are great...but I think we're all actually looking for a huge dump of snow :) that's why we are in these storm/model threads about future storms....not to speak of how we love minor snow events, but watch and hope it turns into a major one :)

3-6 storms are not minor events...you guys are showing your youth...the mega storms we had in recent past are exceptions...like rare exceptions...most years we are full of 3-6 inch snows and nothing more. people too spoiled and set themselves up for disappointment

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3-6 storms are not minor events...you guys are showing your youth...the mega storms we had in recent past are exceptions...like rare exceptions...most years we are full of 3-6 inch snows and nothing more. people too spoiled and set themselves up for disappointment

i understand what you're saying but I think even for NYC area and nearby suburbs 3 or 4" events are fairly minor....due to the fact that this area CAN get a nor'easter along the coast. If you average 30" a year, a storm that gives you just 1/10th if that can't really be anything but "minor"
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3-6 storms are not minor events...you guys are showing your youth...the mega storms we had in recent past are exceptions...like rare exceptions...most years we are full of 3-6 inch snows and nothing more. people too spoiled and set themselves up for disappointment

since 1959-60 19 of 53 years had a snowstorm 10" or more...since 2000-01 we got 7 of 12 years with a big storm...since 1992-93 11 of 20 years...from 1969-70 to 1991-92 NYC had 3 of 23 years with a storm 10" or more...Younger people are being spoiled like I was in the late 50's and 1960's...Will we continue seeing major snowstorms at a record pace?...Or will we hit a drought when everything that can go wrong lasts 10 years?...We had our one 4" or greater event so far...It looks like we might pick up a few inches before New Years day...

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The bombing storm that is tomorrow's system is what I think prevents this from getting all the way up the coast. The Euro also is over digging a trough over the SW US as usual. This could be impacting the wavelength of the ridge over the Plains and thus the digging or phasing of the storm over the East.

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I'm still liking this, H5 doesn't look so bad to me. A few adjustments and we're there. I'm not sure why people are giving up hope already. Would you rather see this thing going into buffalo at this time or where it is being progged? The last year has really jaded many. At least its an actual threat INSIDE of d7+

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since 1959-60 19 of 53 years had a snowstorm 10" or more...since 2000-01 we got 7 of 12 years with a big storm...since 1992-93 11 of 20 years...from 1969-70 to 1991-92 NYC had 3 of 23 years with a storm 10" or more...Younger people are being spoiled like I was in the late 50's and 1960's...Will we continue seeing major snowstorms at a record pace?...Or will we hit a drought when everything that can go wrong lasts 10 years?...We had our one 4" or greater event so far...It looks like we might pick up a few inches before New Years day...

any stats on how many years from the 50s until now of a number of 3" snowstorms that we've gotten ? I'd assume we'd average one per year or more. That is the only reason I find it tough to NOT consider a 3" event minor....because it happens every year
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