Allsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Trying to get its act together. Broad low 1012, light snow for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 About a 3-6 inch snowfall low is further east and weaker this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Bizarre solution how it splits the low in those earlier frames. It almost looks like it's the beginning trends of a future lake cutter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Bizarre solution how it splits the low in those earlier frames. It almost looks like it's the beginning trends of a future lake cutter... Not sure why you think that as the trough never goes negative until its out in the atlantic swimming with the whales Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Bizarre solution how it splits the low in those earlier frames. It almost looks like it's the beginning trends of a future lake cutter... No such thing on that map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z GFS is basically where we want it. Low strengthens too late and goes out to sea, but it's plenty cold for NYC and we have 120 hours to go. Verbatim it's like a 3-6" event as has been said, maybe a little less. Has the signature of a major Nor'easter as we've seen on the GFS at this time frame not phasing systems properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Not sure why you think that as the trough never goes negative until its out in the atlantic swimming with the whales http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F25%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=114&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M It corrects itself eventually, but still there's a center of low pressure in the Ohio Valley this run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 0z GFS is basically where we want it. Low strengthens too late and goes out to sea, but it's plenty cold for NYC and we have 120 hours to go. Verbatim it's like a 3-6" event as has been said, maybe a little less. Has the signature of a major Nor'easter as we've seen on the GFS at this time frame not phasing systems properly. Yup. The GFS is still in the zone where H5 changes significantly each run, however it's consistently off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No such thing on that map No. Actually, I'm pretty sure that's a center of low pressure in the Ohio Valley... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 No. Actually, I'm pretty sure that's a center of low pressure in the Ohio Valley... If the outerbanks to inside the BM is the Ohio valley, we live in the midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 If the outerbanks to inside the BM is the Ohio valley, we live in the midwest. You've got to be kidding me. First of all, I said EARLIER frames. It reforms off the coast of North Carolina later on. There is a sub 1014 surface low in Ohio. Look at the map: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevPage=Model&MainPage=indexℑ=&page=Param&cycle=12%2F25%2F2012+00UTC&rname=SFC-LAYER+PARMS&pname=10m_wnd_precip&pdesc=&model=GFS&area=NAMER&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&fcast=114&areaDesc=North+America+-+US+Canada+and+northern+Mexico&prevArea=NAMER&currKey=model&returnToModel=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ukie is way ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Ukie is way ots As is the 18z DGEX FWIW, keeps us pretty much dry from now through New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GEFS has a nice snow event, same as the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro looks pretty darn good through 108 hr. Lots of northern stream energy getting involved already. Surface low at 1012mb on the MS/AL coastal border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Near OBX at 120...kicked east a little bit from the 12z run. We'll see what happens in the next few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 East through 126...still a big storm signal. Moderate snow for Southern NJ...DE...Eastern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 East through 126...still a big storm signal. Moderate snow for Southern NJ...DE...Eastern MD. Wide right, but just missed the field goal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Goes nuts just offshore at 132..just south and east of the BM. Northern stream is a few hours too late..if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well east of the area by 132. No precip for the NYC metro. Looks south of the Benchmark. Not too concerned yet, but I'd like to start seeing the models trend NW and actually hit the area soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This is so close to being huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well east of the area by 132. No precip for the NYC metro. Looks south of the Benchmark. Not too concerned yet, but I'd like to start seeing the models trend NW and actually hit the area soon. Looks like light precip clips the coast but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This is so close to being huge. Yes. Yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yes. Yes it is. 2 or 3 hours too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 How much QPF does it show? 0z GFS had .25-.5 for the area from the weekend storm. I assume Euro is drier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well east of the area by 132. No precip for the NYC metro. Looks south of the Benchmark. Not too concerned yet, but I'd like to start seeing the models trend NW and actually hit the area soon. At least another 1-2 days of it staying offshore as depicted by the models is fine by me. This one is starting to look legit and it will trend NW eventually, that's almost a guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 How much QPF does it show? 0z GFS had .25-.5 for the area from the weekend storm. I assume Euro is drier? A little less, storm absolutely detonates though. 966mb? Phases ANY sooner and we are talking big time storm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 A little less, storm absolutely detonates though. 966mb? Phases ANY sooner and we are talking big time storm here. well under 970mb when it's at NYC's latitude. It's an absolute bomb, albeit too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 well under 970mb when it's at NYC's latitude. It's an absolute bomb, albeit too far east. Just need that northern stream energy to come in just a tick earlier. If it does, game on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Beyond this storm, Euro has -20C 850s over the Northeast at Day 10 when it ejects the energy from the southwest trough. Powerful system potentially developing in the nation's midsection with a potential for strong overrunning given the cold airmass and 50/50 low (confluence) in place. Almost reminds me of PDII but let's not get carried away. Blocking is trying to develop in the North Atlantic but highly east-based, unfortunately. Still a very favorable set-up and a fabulous antecedent airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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