96blizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 About .55-.60" snow in this weenie band...more over CT. Increased since 12z. WOO HOO! WEENIE BANDS! I keep thinking of a wedgie when you type that --- is that weird? Thanks for all the updates man! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ill happily settle for a solid 4 inches here in Liberty, anything above that gravy. NAM shows a stripe of .50 over Monticello, I'd like to know what the ratios up in these parts will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here's the map I drew up for the blog earlier this afternoon. Mentioned the potential for isolated higher amounts especially over SE NY and CT into Southeast SNE. I'd take this and run.......FAR AWAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 In laurel hollow tomorrow north shore Nassau county. I really thnk it's a 4 or 5 inch number. But I'm still up in the air about how places in Monmouth county that r gona dip into upper 20s tonite and precip on a ne wind with 850s at minus 2. And they mix. Tomorrow. I really thnk places progged as mixing just don't I just don't think that we changeover tommorow out here. I've seen this too many times where the models like to torch us. If the wind stays NE then we're good. Cold air likes to overperfom this time of year (when its around). Yes, I understand its a marginal event, but so are ALL snow events on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I just don't think that we changeover tommorow out here. I've seen this too many times where the models like to torch us. If the wind stays NE then we're good. Cold air likes to overperfom this time of year (when its around). Yes, I understand its a marginal event, but so are ALL snow events on the coast. Good point, only one problem. Winds aren't exactly going to be from the NE. It'll start out as a SE then E then NE towards the end of it. When the heaviest precip arrives it's around an ENE wind, not 100% favorable for an all snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Gefs has about .50 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'd take this and run.......FAR AWAY. Would you take the 2" with you, or the 5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Good point, only one problem. Winds aren't exactly going to be from the NE. It'll start out as a SE then E then NE towards the end of it. When the heaviest precip arrives it's around an ENE wind, not 100% favorable for an all snow event. Thats wonderful. But the following is from upton. I see no mention of any SE winds. Light and variable isn't going to cut it. I guess its because of the sun angle. Snow likely before noon, then rain between noon and 3pm, then rain and snow after 3pm. High near 40. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 http://www.nws.noaa....mav.pl?sta=KJFK The 18z GFS MOS went over to more rain at JFK with easterly flow but keeps LGA all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thats wonderful. But the following is from upton. I see no mention of any SE winds. Light and variable isn't going to cut it. I guess its because of the sun angle. Snow likely before noon, then rain between noon and 3pm, then rain and snow after 3pm. High near 40. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. In the old hourly forecast graph, we did have a SE wind to start. But looking at the graph now, it's mostly an ENE wind during the most precip, not 100% favorable for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 well now just about every model has mixing/rain in northwest monmouth where im driving to for the weekend. That sucks. I'd probably get a nice snow if i stayed in sw CT, but whatever. I could see it go either way, but 'm going to hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Would you take the 2" with you, or the 5"? The 5" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 http://www.nws.noaa....mav.pl?sta=KJFK The 18z GFS MOS went over to more rain at JFK with easterly flow but keeps LGA all snow. And there in lies the problem jfk not goin from 33 to 39 in 3 hrs on an east wind. Crazy progg. On a southerly wind yes. I really thnk these algos torch the coast by 4 to 5 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 And there in lies the problem jfk not goin from 33 to 39 in 3 hrs on an east wind. Crazy progg. On a southerly wind yes. I really thnk these algos torch the coast by 4 to 5 degrees Why not? the ocean temps are in the 40s and this is not an arctic air mass Look, I think it can end up either way on the boarder with this one (duh), but I can't sit here and tell you with confidence that this is going to be all snow in these coastal areas Look at the nam streamlines on the left...its an east wind, maybe even ene, but you can trace the streamlines back to the southeast and not the northeast once off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Why not? the ocean temps are in the 40s and this is not an arctic air mass Look, I think it can end up either way on the boarder with this one (duh), but I can't sit here and tell you with confidence that this is going to be all snow in these coastal areas it's still early in the season and the Ocean plays a bigger roll than say February...But if the storm center tracks far enough south it will be all snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 In the old hourly forecast graph, we did have a SE wind to start. But looking at the graph now, it's mostly an east wind during the most precip, not favorable for snow. The winds are shifting to the NE by the time the winds are like 5mph or so. It's not like its a 20mph E wind. I could see the south fork with a brief changover, but I think the rest are ok. I have a forecast low of 21F tonight and its supposed to get to 38 by noon with full cloud cover and light winds. Don't get me wrong, it can happen and has, but not with light winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The winds are shifting to the NE by the time the winds are like 5mph or so. It's not like its a 20mph E wind. I could see the south fork with a brief changover, but I think the rest are ok. I have a forecast low of 21F tonight and its supposed to get to 38 by noon with full cloud cover and light winds. Don't get me wrong, it can happen and has, but not with light winds In marginal setups like this that have onshore winds, if there's any way to get screwed, coastal Long Island almost always finds a way. That's just how it is. Hopefully we even up with everyone else with heavier precip totals that go to snow as the coastal gets cranking, but I'm not optimistic we stay all snow. The first third of our precip might be wasted as rain or nonaccumulating snow. I can see how we're all snow also, but I'm not optimistic. We're just not in a favorable area unless there's an offshore wind or there's a cold airmass to begin. This is really marginal at best and it won't take a lot to torch us, believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it's still early in the season and the Ocean plays a bigger roll than say February...But if the storm center tracks far enough south it will be all snow... I hope it is all snow..As is, it is boarderline for a jfk and southeast of lets say a new brunswick/staten island/jfk line, on all except the euro which was cold enough (certainly in the back of my mind).. It is the fact that on most models/short range models there is a primary low going into PA, albeit weak, and an east-se flow at lower levels (including an 850 low center to our west on a lot of these models) that concerns me. Yes the coastal takes over and is tracking well enough southeast of us, but we need that to really take over and hopefully we can get some sort of enhancement from a forming ccb at the end too. We also seem to be in a drier zone initially where the primary wave of moisture shoots to our northwest and the coast is forming moisture to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You might be good if your low actually gets down 21..Here in western Nassau our low is forcast to be in the upper 20's so it won't take much to go above freezing so im definitely worried about a mix here even though im just South of the lie.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 In marginal setups like this that have onshore winds, if there's any way to get screwed, coastal Long Island almost always finds a way. That's just how it is. Hopefully we even up with everyone else with heavier precip totals that go to snow as the coastal gets cranking, but I'm not optimistic we stay all snow. The first third of our precip might be wasted as rain or nonaccumulating snow. I can see how we're all snow also, but I'm not optimistic. We're just not in a favorable area unless there's an offshore wind or there's a cold airmass to begin. This is really marginal at best and it won't take a lot to torch us, believe me. You think I'm like 12 lol. You think that I'm not aware of this. Its always going to be marginal here. When was the last time we had a storm without a marginal setup. So, fine I believe you, we have a tendancy to get screwed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 well now just about every model has mixing/rain in northwest monmouth where im driving to for the weekend. That sucks. I'd probably get a nice snow if i stayed in sw CT, but whatever. I could see it go either way, but 'm going to hope for the best. Even the MM5 has us mixing during the heaviest precip. At best we're looking at slushy inch per guidance minus some serious forcing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 And there in lies the problem jfk not goin from 33 to 39 in 3 hrs on an east wind. Crazy progg. On a southerly wind yes. I really thnk these algos torch the coast by 4 to 5 degrees We'll have to wait to see what the 0z guidance looks like to get a better handle on where the R/S line will set up. But the 18z run is showing the coastal front running somewhere between JFK and LGA. It's only showing about a 3 degree rise per three hours. The HI-res NAM look similar on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Radiational cooling will help out the east end tonight. Yes, if you look at the NAM streamlines, they are coming from a warm source. There are two things that I don't buy with that. 1. The air will probably cool due to the existence of precip and 2. the wind is fairly light, virtually calm until the low gets cranking and by then we've already cooled enough for snow. I say 3-5" if we are all snow, 2-4" if we get some mixing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I hope it is all snow..As is, it is boarderline for a jfk and southeast of lets say a new brunswick/staten island/jfk line, on all except the euro which was cold enough (certainly in the back of my mind).. It is the fact that on most models/short range models there is a primary low going into PA, albeit weak, and an east-se flow at lower levels (including an 850 low center to our west on a lot of these models) that concerns me. Yes the coastal takes over and is tracking well enough southeast of us, but we need that to really take over and hopefully we can get some sort of enhancement from a forming ccb at the end too. We also seem to be in a drier zone initially where the primary wave of moisture shoots to our northwest and the coast is forming moisture to our south. that doesn't sound so great...after the warm December we have going any snow will be nice to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 We'll have to wait to see what the 0z guidance looks like to get a better handle on where the R/S line will set up. But the 18z run is showing the coastal front running somewhere between JFK and LGA. It's only showing about a 3 degree rise per three hours. The HI-res NAM look similar on this run. I see ur point but I will point to just 2 days ago where 24 hrs prior to ths last storm the nam was off by 10 degrees at the surface on the coast. It painted a 40 spot at the onset of the precip most pp started in the Low 30s I pointed out yesterday an error in the American models 48 hrs out they run systems south and east only to come back north and today most pp looking at a 4 to 5 inch system. Now the second error is the models love to torch the coast. U have a deepening center running from hatters to cape cod. It's 200 miles to ur east Calm winds after rad cooling tonite and favorable 850s unlike the system 2 days ago and if you remember the water temps in nov were 55 and that system showed u how rates work. I just don't buy that map above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NWS just issued WWA for us here in Liberty calling for a solid 3-5 inch event. Another inch and we'd be at WSW criteria, hopefully, have 6 inches on the ground already, so it'll look nice for sure, start time about 9AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 For those battling, debating about and worrying about the temp issues, I will say I moved to Sussex County and you should too... Kidcding of course, but it does help with a lot of this and, if your situation permits...consider it. This is the first time in my LIFE I've not been in these conversations (grew up in Monmouth County, NJ and then was close to PHL in Media, PA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Mount holly WE WENT WITH THE COLDEST STAT GUIDANCE WE COULD FIND ON[/color]TEMPERATURES, BECAUSE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG; EVAPORATIONAL AND SOME DYNAMIC COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED, AND IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH PRECIPITATION WHEN THE SUN IS ABOUT AT ITS LOWEST ANGLE OF THE YEAR.] http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NWS just issued WWA for us here in Liberty calling for a solid 3-5 inch event. Another inch and we'd be at WSW criteria, hopefully, have 6 inches on the ground already, so it'll look nice for sure, start time about 9AM No, you need 7 or 8 there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Terra Haute to Indianapolis to Dayton and even out to NW Ohio look likely to exceed current forecast snow totals based on current radar/satellite. The northern stream s/w looks potent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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