Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Steve D going with 3-5" Locally 6+" for Trenton into NYC. http://www.nynjpawea...cember-29-2012/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Seems like the 18z RGEM looks good per SNE thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Really they haven't. Yes the NAM had one run with more than .5" but most of the models now in that .25-.4" range. The changeover/mix possibility will be an issue though for certain locations that appeared to be mostly snow a day or two ago. the models have actually performed fairly well with this storm. for days its been a 2-4" event. has that changed much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The evolution of the storm has changed. And yes the track too. no it has not. slight adjustments will always be made, we are talking about predicting the future here. but to say the models have flip flopped or behaved poorly, like some suggest, is flat out wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 As with virtually every other storm we've tracked The evolution of the storm has changed. And yes the track too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's fine if you want to pretend the models have kept the same track for days. The upper levels have changed slightly on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z RGEM precip map http://www.weatherof...YPES_t6_024.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS again looks better aloft. More amplified, stronger and slightly more phased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Stronger through 24 hours...sub 1000mb surface low just east of Ocean City MD. Light to moderate precipitation for almost everyone by then. Seems slightly more tucked in than the 12z run for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's fine if you want to pretend the models have kept the same track for days. The upper levels have changed slightly on each run. that will ALWAYS happen as we get closer to an event....the reality of it is, we could have went to sleep two days ago with a 2-4" forecast which most models were showing, woke up tomorrow morning and said, "job well done models". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Everything bumped northwest by a good 50 miles. 0.50" contour still not to NYC but I would assume many people are closer to 0.40" this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Vertical velocities are much better and show much better lift this run especially over Northeast NJ...NYC..LI..CT and then into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z RGEM is actually a tick north and west of the 12z run at 27 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Everything bumped northwest by a good 50 miles. 0.50" contour still not to NYC but I would assume many people are closer to 0.40" this run. When you look at each frame, it seems the total should be more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 When you look at each frame, it seems the total should be more. I'm not concerned about it..it trended north and west with the best lift and it now includes NYC on the fringe of the good stuff at 27 hours very similarly to the RGEM. We could see a weenie band develop on the NW fringe of the heavier precip that the models are showing as the ccb develops in its initial stages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z gfs close to .5 for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mranger48 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z RGEM is actually a tick north and west of the 12z run at 27 hours. .5+ for NYC metro on the 18z rgem now if i'm reading that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 .5+ for NYC metro on the 18z rgem now if i'm reading that right? That map is in millimeters...but it ends up being that anyway. I'll have the totals in a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 About .55-.60" snow in this weenie band...more over CT. Increased since 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z GFS .44 at Asbury Park (Burlington-Monmouth Airport) .40 at Somerville .38 at Morristown .37 at Andover .37 at Caldwell .35 at Sussex .35 at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z NAM is definitely looking more progressive... Just a comment about the use of the word "progressive." Yes the SLP is a tiny bit weaker and further east this run, but I don't think anything about the run is more progressive. In fact the northern stream s/w is yet again sharper this run (for like the 9th run in a row). Alway playing catchup... A compromise between the 18z and 12z NAM runs could easily tuck the SLP closer to the coast than the 12z and move it out a few hours slower due to the LESS progressive nature of the mid-levels. Otherwise the 18z run introduces the possibility of highest totals being in NEPA and the southern tier of NY, esp considering higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ALL models are now between 0.30 and 0.50 for most of the region. 3" -5" should be the general rule if everything stays as is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Really they haven't. Yes the NAM had one run with more than .5" but most of the models now in that .25-.4" range. The changeover/mix possibility will be an issue though for certain locations that appeared to be mostly snow a day or two ago. Where the models have changed significantly over the past few days is MO, IL, IN, KY, OH, PA, and W and CNY. Just because the model QPF in the NYC area hasn't changed a whole lot doesn't mean the model depictions haven't changed. And changes with lighter QPF storms are harder to detect. Going from .2 - .4 is hardly noticable when everybody broad brushes that as 2-4. But it's the same % increase as going from .4 to .8. And in that case everyone would really notice the change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Nice short trends today... looks like a solid 3-5" for most of the area IMO, highest in parts of LI away from coast and Connecticut. It wasn't a huge trend like other past storms in the end but a gradual adjustment towards a stronger and further west coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Highest in parts of the island?? Think the highest amounts are going to be n&w where there are no poss precip issues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here's the map I drew up for the blog earlier this afternoon. Mentioned the potential for isolated higher amounts especially over SE NY and CT into Southeast SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here's the map I drew up for the blog earlier this afternoon. Mentioned the potential for isolated higher amounts especially over SE NY and CT into Southeast SNE. Looks spot on.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Highest in parts of the island?? Think the highest amounts are going to be n&w where there are no poss precip issues.. Could be the city or LI if a CCB sets up. Whoevers under that (if it sets up) will most likely be snow and possibly heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here's the map I drew up for the blog earlier this afternoon. Mentioned the potential for isolated higher amounts especially over SE NY and CT into Southeast SNE. In laurel hollow tomorrow north shore Nassau county. I really thnk it's a 4 or 5 inch number. But I'm still up in the air about how places in Monmouth county that r gona dip into upper 20s tonite and precip on a ne wind with 850s at minus 2. And they mix. Tomorrow. I really thnk places progged as mixing just don't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Some nice banding just south of STL on national radar. I still don't think the models are depicting that area very well, even on the 6hr and 12hr panels. The current radar is a good example about how the actual result does not behave nearly as well as the smoothed model output. Short range hires is a lot better, but it overdoes it and is less useful beyond the very short range. In our region, banding will likely set up somewhere on the NW fringe of the CCB, and it will determine who cashes in and who gets stuck in subsidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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