allgame830 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Actually keeps it colder for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's a bit east but more than anything, there is much less precip NW OF the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's still 0.25" +...but probably closer to 0.30 than 0.50 from the 12z run. I mean in terms of storm development and placement. Should be locked in or at least more consistent, but I know it's not a perfect world. EDIT Its not all that different. Just a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not terrible --- seems QPF like the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's still 0.25" +...but probably closer to 0.30 than 0.50 from the 12z run. That's why the NAM has not been very reliable for the last few winters. . Changed every 4 hours. Rossi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Nam at 18z looks a lot like euro. Colder and .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I would be disappointed if this trends in the 18z models. But at least it's colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I would be disappointed if this trends in the 18z models. But at least it's colder. But the new nam looks exactly like the EURO and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 850mb low was closed off on the 12z NAM...the phase takes longer to occur this run and the mid level centers are slower to close off, so the best lift is slower to translate to the NW of the coastal low. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/WRFEAST_18z/f27.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ill take it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ill take it.. Man the cape gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think a solid 3-5" snowfall for the area is the way to go right now with some areas picking up as much as 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Man the cape gets crushed. I would think some of that is rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I would think some of that is rain.. Not much though, the coastal is cranking and 850's crash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think a solid 3-5" snowfall for the area is the way to go right now with some areas picking up as much as 6". Agreed....my 3-4" call with amounts to 5" from days ago might come true....amazing my thinking might have actually been correct....better not to sway with the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I would think some of that is rain.. Don't be presumptuous. This is shaping up to be one of those insane cape cod bombs which whips the peninsula and islands with 60mph winds and 8" of snow in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ill take it.. You can see from this map that someone's going to get screwed with the transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Don't be presumptuous. This is shaping up to be one of those insane cape cod bombs which whips the peninsula and islands with 60mph winds and 8" of snow in 3 hours. Something that rarely happens.. Until it happens I will assume that they receive half that precip as snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Upton being taking the lower of the range IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Nam is fine .25 to. 50 from the city thru long island and in line w most models. Looks like a general 4 inch snow area wide pp on the coast should applaud it thats a much better and colder look than the srefs for u guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Upton being taking the lower of the range IMBY Wow that's a big shift, from 4.2 this morning to 2.1... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I was just going to post about the Upton map totals being basically cut in half since this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wow that's a big shift, from 4.2 this morning to 2.1... that was the map from four hrs ago. i don't think they updated their products yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ill take it.. Not liking the I95 DC- Philly Screw zone. That gives this event some bust room, if that verifies those areas will have trouble getting 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 that was the map from four hrs ago. i don't think they updated their products yet. That is updated.. They increased snowfalll out here in the interior by 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Every storm ends up with a screw zone to some extent. Usually its just not modeled as to where that will end up. I'm sure some places will fall short of the 3" mark with this event. Not liking the I95 DC- Philly Screw zone. That gives this event some bust room, if that verifies those areas will have trouble getting 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 For whatever cognitive dissonance is involved in this observation, it just seems that this is one of those storms that has the potential to blow up and turn a 2-4 forecast into a 3-6, 4-8 as the storm starts pumping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not liking the I95 DC- Philly Screw zone. That gives this event some bust room, if that verifies those areas will have trouble getting 2-4" winter events for philly and dc are rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Those NOAA totals are cut in half because they bought the mixing solution. 4 to ur west ? 4 to ur north ? While more precip fallin put east. And long isl maxes 2 prob not likely Not gona mix. Ur fine. Plan for 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 WWA for 2-5" NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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