earthlight Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Long Island gets destroyed...SNE too. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Long Island gets destroyed...SNE too. Awesome. Very, very nice run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Great run, Miller A fresh out of the gulf, benchmark track. Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I love seeing this only about 120 hours out. Not in the fantasy range. 12 year anneversary of the 2000 storm. Should be an interesting week of tracking this one... Merry Christmas folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Who says this pattern isn't better? We'll all see flakes in the air today, a couple days after Christmas, and then a few days after that. The pattern is surely much more active with the -SOI induced sub tropical jet activating and cold air finally in the picture as the NPAC reshuffles. This coming week may be fairly wintry for many folks when we look back on Dec 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Long Island gets destroyed...SNE too. Awesome. Need it slightly further west for Westchester to take the brunt of the storm. Great run, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I love seeing this only about 120 hours out. Not in the fantasy range. We still need to iron out the finer details in the next 48-72 before getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Need it slightly further west for Westchester to take the brunt of the storm. Great run, though. Remember. Higher Ratios. It wouldn't matter at that position when it comes to a storm of that magnitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We still need to iron out the finer details in the next 48-72 before getting excited. The key is to have this system still looking the way it does now once the mid-week storm passes us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Remember. Higher Ratios. It wouldn't matter at that position when it comes to a storm of that magnitude. With a low bombing into the 970s to our east, we'd definitely be talking about blizzard conditions on the coast and a solid Nor'easter inland, anyway. Very nice thermal gradient with the rising PNA, and looks extremely chilly once this storm passes us. Would be nice to get a snow-->ice deal on 12/27, a big snowstorm on 12/30, and then some arctic cold. That would be quite a contrast with the mild/rainy conditions we've had all month. And it's quite possible...one of the many reasons to love weather in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The key is to have this system still looking the way it does now once the mid-week storm passes us. Yeah. Let's hope the Mid-Week storm keeps the confluence steady up north, so the 50/50 Low (Mid Week storm) will stay in place by the end of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Classice Euro & UK vs GFS SE bias on a medium-range SECS threat today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Classice Euro & UK vs GFS SE bias on a medium-range SECS threat today. This. The GGEM should be an Apps runner though but it's not. Other than that, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Honestly, most globals are similarly aligned especially in terms of overrunning and coastal transfer. As long as the signal for strong confluence is still there, track remains the most important area. I'm leaving to the Dominican Republic on the 3rd of January, would be a great goodbye present. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 JMA was the first to show this storm yesterday on it's 12z run. Today's 12z run of the JMA just came out and it has held serve with a massive hit in our area. However, with the 24 hr intervals, it is hard to get into details with the 850 line placement. At 120 hrs. it has the low as a sub 1005mb over Kentucky and Tennessee, and at 144 hrs it has it in the same location it had it yesterday, exactly, over Cape Cod, as a sub 975mb low. At 120 hrs. it has the 850 line right over NYC and across North Jersey, and at 144 hrs it has the 850 line about 300 miles off shore, and it has 1.00-1.50 inches of precip throughout our area, with the precip max bulls eye of 1.75-2.00 near Albany. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Classic three storm progression to colder. This is an really active pattern leaving open the door to a significant snow threat here around the same time as 12/30/2000. It's very impressive to get three major storms in such a quick 10 day succession. The PNA had to come up sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is further off shore, however you can clearly see the pull of the precip field back toward the coast in our area, indicating that the low is likely closer to the coast in our area, much as the operational model shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is further off shore, however you can clearly see the pull of the precip field back toward the coast in our area, indicating that the low is likely closer to the coast in our area, much as the operational model shows. It's good to see a little more suppression in the mean at this range to allow for a correction closer to the coast as we get near the potential event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 the last time we got three storms in a week was late February 2005...January 1978 had three in one week...all started as snow but the last one stayed snow for most of the storm...14" worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 It's good to see a little more suppression in the mean at this range to allow for a correction closer to the coast as we get near the potential event. I agree bluwave its better to be on the SE side of guidance at this range and watch a west trend in the days to come. At the very least its a decent threat to track with seamingly more potential into the beginning of the new year. With plenty of cold building into Canada and the northern tier of the country and what should remain an active period, we'll likely have more threats to track beyond this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I agree bluwave its better to be on the SE side of guidance at this range and watch a west trend in the days to come. At the very least its a decent threat to track with seamingly more potential into the beginning of the new year. With plenty of cold building into Canada and the northern tier of the country and what should remain an active period, we'll likely have more threats to track beyond this storm. Hopefully, this storm finally delivers for all or part of our area. Nobody wants to see such a great -AO pattern go to waste without at least at one good snow threat. , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I guess the +PNA is going to be doing a lot of the work as the NAO and AO are both expected to go positive right before the new year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I guess the +PNA is going to be doing a lot of the work as the NAO and AO are both expected to go positive right before the new year. It's interesting that the early November snow came at the last intersection of a rising PNA and AO. At least this time, the models are more bullish on the PNA staying positive longer than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I guess the +PNA is going to be doing a lot of the work as the NAO and AO are both expected to go positive right before the new year. Not really. They'll be Neutral by New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 the last time we got three storms in a week was late February 2005...January 1978 had three in one week...all started as snow but the last one stayed snow for most of the storm...14" worth... Weren't there also 3 storms in the span of a week in December 2008? From what I remember there was light-moderate snow on the 16-17th, heavy snow/mix on the 19th, and another mix event on the 20th or 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is better looking than 12z through 114, but still too fast with the pattern out west to allow for any real northern stream interaction and amplification. It's trying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Weak surface low just off OBX between 132-138. Light snow for everybody so far. Looks like another east/southeast solution...but the look is still good. Gotta like where we're at with this one at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Weak surface low just off OBX between 132-138. Light snow for everybody so far. Looks like another east/southeast solution...but the look is still good. Gotta like where we're at with this one at this range. I would much rather take my chances between snow or no than the warm solutions that we have been seeing lately. At least we finally have some legit potential to see if we can realize or not. This would be a better monthly save than December 30,2000 considering how cold that month was here should we pull this one off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I would much rather take my chances between snow or no than the warm solutions that we have been seeing lately. At least we finally have some legit potential to see if we can realize or not. This would be a better monthly save than December 30,2000 considering how cold that month was here should we pull this one off. I think the rising PNA and falling EPO are the start of a very special period for us this winter. I'm hoping to see something like the stretch we had in 10-11 but that could be a stretch. It depends on how the NAO behaves after the +PNA weakens, but the next two weeks offer a January 2004 like pattern with multiple clippers possible and some very cold air, especially just to our northwest. 12z Euro and 18z GFS have several periods with -15C 850s in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Gfs light over running at 120....storm looks disjointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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