earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 15z SREFs have ticked north and west. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GEFS look a good bit wetter than the OP at quick glance. Can anyone confirm? Yeah a few members are very wet w/ 0.75-1.00" precip totals from CNJ northeastward. Really gets the coastal going on those ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah a few members are very wet w/ 0.75-1.00" precip totals from CNJ northeastward. Really gets the coastal going on those ones. Yeah and even the mean pushed the 0.50"-0.75" contour back into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 15z SREFs have ticked north and west. Again. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah and even the mean pushed the 0.50"-0.75" contour back into NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z GEFS and the 15z SREF both ticked a bit NW Last minute trends are your friends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 15z SREFs have ticked north and west. Again. Wow. I'm honestly surprised at the Euro situation given all of the surrounding guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ugh. If you live East of Jamaica, Queens, then there'll be major P-Type issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 15z SREFs have ticked north and west. Again. Nice! Seems to be the theme this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If you live East of Jamaica, Queens, then there'll be major P-Type issues. Haha ok...so southern brookln should be fine then? lol. Its a SW-NE gradient...even NW suffolk will be fine, just as is usual in these setups. North of LIE well out in suffolk should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The ECM is very confused. and if the EC was the one showing the snow would it be confused or would the GFS be confused? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Blows my mind how we could have a 983mb low at 72W and STILL not have significant precipitation being thrown back west. 4KM NAM still has about 1"-1.25" of QPF Blows my mind even more how there can be a 983mb low near the Benchmark and there being issues with rain/snow. I'm hoping for a more intense offshore system to crank northerly winds, but if anyone mixes and gets screwed, it'll likely be southern Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Blows my mind even more how there can be a 983mb low near the Benchmark and there being issues with rain/snow. I'm hoping for a more intense offshore system to crank northerly winds, but if anyone mixes and gets screwed, it'll likely be southern Nassau. Yeah, and its not like we have a warm airmass in place. Its not cold but certainly not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah a few members are very wet w/ 0.75-1.00" precip totals from CNJ northeastward. Really gets the coastal going on those ones. Really only 2 or 3 members that are substantially wet. The rest are very consident with their placement of features and QPF in the .3 - .4 range. If the model has a good handle on things, we can ignore the outliers and go with a 3-4" where it stays all snow. If the models are still playing catchup then all bets are off... and we could have a high impact quick hitting snowstorm. I'm really not sure what to think. Consensus for 2-4 areawide seems very reasonable. But I'm curious about the continual steady northward push and strengthening of the northern stream s/w through the Ohio Valley. It's been ongoing for two days in the guidance. I think the lead low center is going to push pretty far north and bring some moderate snow accumulations into much of IN, OH, and PA. That 500mb trough looks so much sharper than yesterday. I could almost see this thing blow a kiss to Montauk and graze the Islands. Lots of radar/satellite watching to come. Interior RI to SEMA looks pretty sweet right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah, and its not like we have a warm airmass in place. Its not cold but certainly not bad. Exactly, I think the Euro is good on the cold air in place. But I do think there will be higher QPF's like the other global models and the LP will be closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM is stronger with the vort but a hair less amplified with the heights out in front of it so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Blows my mind even more how there can be a 983mb low near the Benchmark and there being issues with rain/snow. I'm hoping for a more intense offshore system to crank northerly winds, but if anyone mixes and gets screwed, it'll likely be southern Nassau. umm would really leave a sour note in my mouth if that is true..this setup should be snow here..Then cold and dry?..would rather have a blowtorch if it's gonna be one of those winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM seems even more amped (especially on the southern piece) than 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 SREF indies..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 SREF indies..... Looks great! But...too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks great! But...too close for comfort. Getting a bit toasty. Hold it right there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This NAM run looks slightly more progressive to me so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM I think will be S and E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Southern piece is further ahead on the NAM. It was more amped early in the run and the S and N never connected quite like the 12z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z NAM is definitely looking more progressive... 15z SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 A good bit south and east and less organized than the 12z run. Not nearly as much precipitation or lift on the nw side of the surface low offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Definitely disjointed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 A good bit south and east and less organized than the 12z run. Not nearly as much precipitation or lift on the nw side of the surface low offshore. Wow, you would think it would start to lock in so close to the event. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wow, you would think it would start to lock in so close to the event. Ugh. It's still 0.25" +...but probably closer to 0.30 than 0.50 from the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Weird since the sref bumped northwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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