dbc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I need to stay away from this thread the model hugging is making me vomit!!!! Hugging the GFS on a D1/2 event? Luckily Upton has not lost its sanity and is still calling for higher totals further East! NE wind PLEASE! This exactly! Was just going to post something similar. High Res models + Euro/GGEM/RGEM 1-2 days out > Goofus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This exactly! Was just going to post something similar. Hi Res models + Euro/GGEM/RGEM 1-2 days out > Goofus. Some people just never learn! I am not claiming to be a pro met but some things are common sense. All you have to do is look at the GFS D1/2 for Christmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I wouldn't be too worried about changing to rain unless you are SE of I-95 south of Manalapan or east of 111 on LI has another poster (Metsfan?) said. It's just something to note as the storm gets further NW on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 121229/1500Z 27 VRB02KT 29.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 121229/1800Z 30 09003KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 84| 0| 16 121229/2100Z 33 03006KT 31.0F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 80| 1| 20 121230/0000Z 36 36007KT 28.8F SNOW 19:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 18:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 121230/0300Z 39 33006KT 27.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0 Very doubtful that HPN is mixing with rain at 30hr. At 400ft up there I would guess all snow and something like 29F at that time period based off either NAM or GFS. The modeled BL temps are too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Some people just never learn! I am not claiming to be a pro met but some things are common sense. All you have to do is look at the GFS D1/2 for Christmas eve. If you're referring to me, I'm not "hugging" any model and would choose the NAM/RGEM/Euro over the GFS any day. There was just misconceptions about what it was showing and it is another piece to the puzzle. These storms which rely on dynamical boundary layer cooling are always tough to nail down... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Where is Wxoulooks? He usually chimes in if something major is happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro looks way better. Definitely not like the UKIE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro is cold and further east then nam and gfs .25 tickles shore line at 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro is right near the benchmark . Colder than the GFS and Nam because it's further east. 2-4 is a good call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro looks way better. Definitely not like the UKIE. Improved at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro .25+ for all. .50 brushes eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Very doubtful that HPN is mixing with rain at 30hr. At 400ft up there I would guess all snow and something like 29F at that time period based off either NAM or GFS. The modeled BL temps are too warm. Yea that's what I am thinking as well... Should be at least a few inches up that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I need to stay away from this thread the model hugging is making me vomit!!!! Hugging the GFS on a D1/2 event? Luckily Upton has not lost its sanity and is still calling for higher totals further East! NE wind PLEASE! ...i think that forecast discussion was from last nite..anyway more and more concerned that we will change to rain..especially me out east..but in the same breath i taking credence to what snow goose is saying.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Use Euro for intensity and track , Use high res for QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro is also the coldest model out of the bunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Use Euro for intensity and track , Use high res for QPF It may sound weenie like but its true alot of the time inside 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If you're referring to me, I'm not "hugging" any model and would choose the NAM/RGEM/Euro over the GFS any day. There was just misconceptions about what it was showing and it is another piece to the puzzle. These storms which rely on dynamical boundary layer cooling are always tough to nail down... I wasn't referring to anyone in particular. There just tends to be allot of GFS love around here. I agree if this does end up further NW we could have coastal mix issues. As it stands right now with a position closer to the benchmark and resultant NE flow LI will be fine. Central coastal Jers is the only mix area as far as I am concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Very doubtful that HPN is mixing with rain at 30hr. At 400ft up there I would guess all snow and something like 29F at that time period based off either NAM or GFS. The modeled BL temps are too warm. Euro is still pretty far east..my eyebrow is officially raised at the tucked in nam/sref/rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It may sound weenie like but its true alot of the time inside 24 hours. YEH i use euro ensemb long term euro in med range and high res consensus inside 36 hrs and i subtract 5 degrees from Nam BL ON coast - very simple Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Where is Wxoulooks? He usually chimes in if something major is happening. but nothing major is happening ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro is still pretty far east..my eyebrow is officially raised at the tucked in nam/sref/rgem. Why ? not buying closer solution ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 If it weren't for the RGEM, which is an excellent model, I'd be more in the Euro camp. The RGEM is probably the best high res short term model out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Is the Euro at least improved from its last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Is the Euro at least improved from its last run? Yes. Much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Is the Euro at least improved from its last run? If your looking for a super storm no, 2-4 inch storm on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If your looking for a super storm no, 2-4 inch storm on euro After last winter tomorrow IS a superstorm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If your looking for a super storm no, 2-4 inch storm on euro I'll be happy with that, anything extra would be a bonus. Though the euro may not be like the nam/rgem, the fact that it keeps improving is interesting. Will the models keep trending right into tomorrow morning, that remains to be seen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'll be happy with that, anything extra would be a bonus. Though the euro may not be like the nam/rgem, the fact that it keeps improving is interesting. Will the models keep trending right into tomorrow morning, that remains to be seen? To me it was a just a little wetter. Surface low is still pretty Far East. Perhaps better for Bos. It really did not get any worse or better for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Why ? not buying closer solution ? The Euro has a superior resolution so you would think it would pick up on whatever the high resolution models have as well. But it didnt budge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 we did get a 4" storm last January...it came almost three months after the last 3" storm in October...This year it could come less than two months since the last 3" storm...It's an improvement... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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