Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Fair Warning the Euro may not show tons of QPF . So no one jump out of a window . It sometimes misses QPF close in . The key to Euro is how much it deepens the LP and where the surface feature ends up- The high RES should take it from there . That's a good point. The ECMWF can definitely sometimes underdo precipitation right before an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Channel 2 calling for mostly rain in NYC, D-2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wow, GEFS ENS mean has a 992 mb low on the BM. That's pretty impressive. Down from 1008 only 12 hrs later -16 mb in 12 hrs , all this talk of mixing I think people are missing that the models always warm the coastal plain and when u send a deepening system to the BM and the 850`s are draped to your south winds are Northeast , Nothing is a layup , but i dont think its a hard call . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yanksfan, How does bufkit look for KSMQ? Thanks in advance. About the same as Morristown which I already posted. For those interested, here is KEWR 121229/1500Z 27 08004KT 30.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 121229/1800Z 30 07005KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 65| 0| 35 121229/2100Z 33 02008KT 33.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.097 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.16 9| 0| 91 121230/0000Z 36 35008KT 31.9F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 6:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 69| 1| 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Channel 2 calling for mostly rain in NYC, D-2' Based on what ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The GFS MOS P-Types show some mixing for suffolk but all snow at JFK. Definitely not. An examination of the GFS bufkit shows rain at JFK. Surface temperatures there get up to 3.6C.... they only get 0.6" before going over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GEFS they are almost identical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Definitely not. An examination of the GFS bufkit shows rain at JFK. Surface temperatures there get up to 3.6C.... they only get 0.6" before going over. that is what I thought...what a winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 What is your guys opinion on rain mixing,in for NYC East??? Did you read the thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Less than 24 hours ago never would have thought this stood a chance of being mostly rain in the city but after the 12z guidance it's a possability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Definitely not. An examination of the GFS bufkit shows rain at JFK. Surface temperatures there get up to 3.6C.... they only get 0.6" before going over. JFK goin to 40 on NE wind ? with 850`s to its east ? What am i missing ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Most models treat LI like an ocean, we shouldn't worry too much...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Based on what ? Maybe they are using the GFS Bufkit as well lol. Per Yanksfan's posts none of them are very favorable for EWR, NYC, JFK or LGA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 11 Out 13 Members are showing an okay hit for NYC, based on the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 that is what I thought...what a winter Even EWR is borderline but would probably be able to stay all snow with decent enough rates... temperatures there hover just above 0C. My LGA bufkit file wouldn't load for some odd reason. Even New Brunswick briefly goes over to rain with a 1.3/0.9C surface.... it goes above freezing at 920 hPa.... I'm not saying that this will verify but I simply wanted to clear up any idea that the GFS was favorable for NYC east or central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I was going to say that I think at this point for folks from the city on East, and even those living in the immediate western burbs, hope that the trend of a more amped up solution continues so that the better dynamics get onshore and help cool the column. Development of the low quicker might get a CCB cranking early enough to save everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Even EWR is borderline but would probably be able to stay all snow with decent enough rates... temperatures there hover just above 0C. My LGA bufkit file wouldn't load for some odd reason. Even New Brunswick briefly goes over to rain with a 1.3/0.9C surface.... it goes above freezing at 920 hPa.... I'm not saying that this will verify but I simply wanted to clear up any idea that the GFS was favorable for NYC east or central Jersey. With temps/dewpoints being something like 35/25 at worst when this comes in and virtually little onshore component of any magnitude I can't see how this is anything but snow unless as Snow88 said the storm literally tracks on top of us, this is probably the usual situation of the GFS not being able to resolve the evaporational cooling in the BL in marginal cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Anybody have the bufkit for HPN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The only way I can see this being a rain event for the coast is if the storm trends even further west. there are hundreds of examples where a storm was east of us in winter and it rained. There just isnt any real cold air around...and its too weak/far east to produce its own cold air..plus there isnt going to be a CCB at this latitude. Am I saying its DEFINITELY going to rain, NO. But its 50/50, at best, for you and I... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Similar thing happened with the light Christmas Eve event. GFS was extremely warm, had us all rain and temps in the low to mid 40's. In reality, temps were in the mid to upper 30's with snow for about half the event. I'm not buying it. A more amped solution will help everyone, with more precip and colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My bet would be that the Euro is in the Ukie camp given its ensembles last night being pretty similar to that track. If we get it to come NW we can pretty much lock that in, given the hi res models showing the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Adding insult to injury on the 12Z GFS is that while the column could be supportive of snow at a place like JFK there is no negative omega in the snow growth region... better snow growth only starts taking place once the surface is quite warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I was going to say that I think at this point for folks from the city on East, and even those living in the immediate western burbs, hope that the trend of a more amped up solution continues so that the better dynamics get onshore and help cool the column. Development of the low quicker might get a CCB cranking early enough to save everyone. i agree..a weaker more east storm does nada for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 With temps/dewpoints being something like 35/25 at worst when this comes in and virtually little onshore component of any magnitude I can't see how this is anything but snow unless as Snow88 said the storm literally tracks on top of us, this is probably the usual situation of the GFS not being able to resolve the evaporational cooling in the BL in marginal cases. Agreed with this. The RGEM, which is a 4DVAR short term high res model even had its snowfall algorithm as very favorable for most coastal areas. I'm really not too worried about a low res model showing a warm BL considering the factors you stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I need to stay away from this thread the model hugging is making me vomit!!!! Hugging the GFS on a D1/2 event? Luckily Upton has not lost its sanity and is still calling for higher totals further East! NE wind PLEASE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Anybody have the bufkit for HPN 121229/1500Z 27 VRB02KT 29.0F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.008 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0 121229/1800Z 30 09003KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.039 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.05 84| 0| 16 121229/2100Z 33 03006KT 31.0F ZRSN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.075 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 80| 1| 20 121230/0000Z 36 36007KT 28.8F SNOW 19:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.085 18:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.21 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 121230/0300Z 39 33006KT 27.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 17:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Adding insult to injury on the 12Z GFS is that while the column could be supportive of snow at a place like JFK there is no negative omega in the snow growth region... better snow growth only starts taking place once the surface is quite warm. It's going to be interesting as the best lift transfers to the coast with the surface low developing rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yawnnnn , This is silly speak . 90 perc of you buy a shovel , your goingto need - 4 to 6 for most of the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 So we're going to rain in central nj for counties like Middlesex/Mercer? I highly doubt that but if this could trend more amplified with a faster deepening than we get strong dynamic cooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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