12/29 - New Years Storm Threat Discussion

[jm1220]

I'm a little worried about mixing from route 111 east for Long Island.

I could see how initially there could be some issues, due to an easterly low level flow which could warm the boundary layer. Then however winds turn NE and eventually N as the surface low gets going. Hopefully any mixing is very early on and not a major issue. We could use a nicer high, but this is Dec 30, not April.

[IsentropicLift]

So I guess it'll be a high end advisory event then.

Would think that's a pretty safe bet and considering that the NWS generally sides on the conservative side with accumulations these days I can't imagine them flipping the advisories to warnings unless the guidance starts to overwhelmingly point towards higher amounts. A warning doesn't really mean anything to the general public anyway. It wouldn't be worth the time for them to change it.

The local radio stations are still calling for a dusting to 2". It's one thing to be conservative and it's another to give the public a false sense of what is coming.

[hudsonvalley21]

probably the heaviest 6" I had to shovel in yrs but at least we know it isn't going anywhere anytime soon

This will help temps bottom out early next week with the rad cooling.

[TWCCraig]

Would think that's a pretty safe bet and considering that the NWS generally sides on the conservative side with accumulations these days I can't imagine them flipping the advisories to warnings unless the guidance starts to overwhelmingly point towards higher amounts. A warning doesn't really mean anything to the general public anyway. It wouldn't be worth the time for them to change it.

The local radio stations are still calling for a dusting to 2". It's one thing to be conservative and it's another to give the public a false sense of what is coming.

Tell me about it, TWC still only calling for 1-2" in NYC, still a possibility, but it's more likely that there will be more.

[Snow_Miser]

For what it's worth, the ETA and the RSM are both pretty amplified with this system. The 12z ETA brings close to 0.5" to KTTN, whereas the 12z RSM brings close to 0.75" for KTTN.

RSM

ETA

[IsentropicLift]

Tell me about it, TWC still only calling for 1-2" in NYC, still a possibility, but it's more likely that there will be more.

Up until early this morning they were only calling for snow showers. Yesterday morning I would have said that was still an option but now that is clearly not the case. Personally, I hate TWC. They had no accumulations for the system a couple days ago and I had almost 4" IMBY before the changeover. Seems like systems like this they always play catch up.

[NorEaster27]

They cause nothing but fights. Put up a map that shows 8" in West Milford and 1" on Long Island and the natives will get very angry.

Here, go at it:

http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php3?STATIONID=OKX

[SnowGoose69]

Up until early this morning they were only calling for snow showers. Yesterday morning I would have said that was still an option but now that is clearly not the case. Personally, I hate TWC. They had no accumulations for the system a couple days ago and I had almost 4" IMBY before the changeover. Seems like systems like this they always play catch up.

The best thing they've done recently is bring Tom Niziol in as their winter weather guy, finally got someone to replace Kocin who might be even better.

[IsentropicLift]

Here, go at it:

http://wxcaster.com/...3?STATIONID=OKX

LMAO, that just wouldn't be fair. It bullseye's my back yard.

[IsentropicLift]

The best thing they've done recently is bring Tom Niziol in as their winter weather guy, finally got someone to replace Kocin who might be even better.

I miss Paul Kocin. I went to a seminar that he did at Kean University a few years back. Had a blast and learned a lot. Loved watching him back when the Weather Channel actually had competent people.

[NJwinter23]

2-4" for the area...way too much weenie-ology in this thread, until you show me a model that forms the ccb on us instead of LI/SNE, then im sticking to that.

[SnowGoose69]

Whats JB saying this morning? I'd imagine he's throwin 10 inch lollipops out.

[MJO812]

GFS ensemble mean

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12036.gif

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Looks like the GEFS is wetter and more amplified than the OP.

[Zir0b]

clear red flag when even yesterday's 12z GFS ens were much more amplified than the OP

[Snow_Miser]

Wow, GEFS ENS mean has a 992 mb low on the BM. That's pretty impressive.

[IsentropicLift]

GFS ensemble mean

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12036.gif

Are the members fairly spread out or are they tightly clustered?

[forkyfork]

there's a rain issue for some if this comes further west

[MJO812]

Looks like the GEFS is wetter and more amplified than the OP.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep24048.gif

[Snow_Miser]

From what I saw in the NE thread, the UKMET looks very similar to the GGEM

[ace0927]

there's a rain issue for some if this comes further west

there is a rain issue for most east of the city...i would think the south shore of LI, the NJ Shore and most of suffolk are toast, no?

[Saturn510]

Whats the Brazilian or Korean model show with the upside down "L".. lol had ask. We havent had anyone post it in a few years.

[NJwinter23]

there's a rain issue for some if this comes further west

That's what I'm trying to caution. It's not a simple fact of wetter = more snow. If the wetter tendencies are coming from the lead shortwave up front, then thats poor snow growth/poor boundary layer (maybe even rain SE) material. If those wetter tendencies come from a CCB forming overhead, then we would be in business, I just dont' really see that as likely at this point.

[PB GFI]

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep24048.gif

.50 - .75 starting to match up with NAM , RGEM and SREF

[IsentropicLift]

12z GFS Bufkit for KMMU - 3.8" actually more than what it showed for the NAM

121229/1500Z 39 08003KT 29.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 11:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

121229/1800Z 42 04006KT 30.3F SNOW 15:1| 2.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.184 14:1| 3.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.22 100| 0| 0

121229/2100Z 45 01006KT 30.8F SNOW 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.073 13:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 100| 0| 0

121230/0000Z 48 33006KT 27.6F 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000 13:1| 3.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.30 0| 0| 0

[Stormlover74]

I don't know but he's calling it the 'Mothra' storm.

Whats JB saying this morning? I'd imagine he's throwin 10 inch lollipops out.

[Absolute Humidity]

That's what I'm trying to caution. It's not a simple fact of wetter = more snow. If the wetter tendencies are coming from the lead shortwave up front, then thats poor snow growth/poor boundary layer (maybe even rain SE) material. If those wetter tendencies come from a CCB forming overhead, then we would be in business, I just dont' really see that as likely at this point.

(Face Palm) Snow in Southern Alabama, rain in 2/3erds of NJ. Reminds me of the 1990's minus 94 and 96.

[bluewave]

there is a rain issue for most east of the city...i would think the south shore of LI, the NJ Shore and most of suffolk are toast, no?

The GFS MOS P-Types show some mixing for suffolk but all snow at JFK.

[IsentropicLift]

12z GFS at KLGA - Just showing what it's saying. Not indicating whether it's right or wrong so don't shoot the messenger just because it has zero accumulation.

121229/1500Z 39 VRB02KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 74| 0| 26

121229/1800Z 42 04006KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.168 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.17 74| 0| 26

121229/2100Z 45 02008KT 33.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.097 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.27 70| 0| 30

121230/0000Z 48 34009KT 31.2F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 100| 0| 0

[Snow_Miser]

Yanksfan,

How does bufkit look for KSMQ? Thanks in advance.