psv88 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 lol..well that would be a first..storm going to the se by 150 miles with the 850 line south in late December and it's rain on long island..this winter that is quite possible Disagree strongly. The beaches have issues, not just inland. And once the heavier precip moves in, it flips to snow. Read Upton's disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 yea. trending deff for a stronger snowfall but at the cost of a tighter precip gradient. so the coastal sections might reach low warning levels while the NW zones most likely remain advisory level snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 lol..well that would be a first..storm going to the se by 150 miles with the 850 line south in late December and it's rain on long island..this winter that is quite possible A lot of times the QPF algorithms aren't worth the paper they're drawn on in these situations. Rely on soundings instead. I can sort of see a primary feature over the Ohio Valley which could cause some initial issues, but I have a hard time believing that much of the precip anywhere is rain (perhaps except for southern NJ if the 850 zero line crosses them) when the main storm gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 yea. trending deff for a stronger snowfall but at the cost of a tighter precip gradient. so the coastal sections might reach low warning levels while the NW zones most likely remain advisory level snows. Orange County is always the exception, they pull a 6 inch amount outta their ass in every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NYC-east .50 The stormvista maps are every 3 hours with 6 hour precipitation. GFS is .25"+ for NYC east. .50" line starts near the Hamptons, LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Orange County is always the exception, they pull a 6 inch amount outta their ass in every storm. Lol it seems that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Orange County is always the exception, they pull a 6 inch amount outta their ass in every storm. yea...west milford is not far behind either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 @ 36 hrs you see a 996 at the Benchmark , you see the GFS precip flow around that low Now look at the 6z 42 hr same time and look at its interpretation of its precip field ,less organized . So the depth of the Liquid is better on this run around its center , not quite to the NAM but not far off . GFS precip too small for a 12 mb fall inside 12 hrs coming Northeast IMO as it is it .50 city east . Nam .50 - .75 just think theres room to trend better its been coming our way for 24 hrs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Currently at work and the interesting thing going on this morning is that the models have tremendously underestimated the jet dynamics over the OH Valley, we're getting tons of aircraft reporting turbulence in altitudes only some light chop was indicated, this could be a sign we've got heights pumping more ahead of the wave kicking out of the srn plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Any possibility the advisories go to warnings later on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Currently at work and the interesting thing going on this morning is that the models have tremendously underestimated the jet dynamics over the OH Valley, we're getting tons of aircraft reporting turbulence in altitudes only some light chop was indicated, this could be a sign we've got heights pumping more ahead of the wave kicking out of the srn plains. Could mean that models are going to play catch up in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Could mean that models are going to play catch up in the next 24 hours. They've also blown the snow across OK right now, OKC moderate snow the last hour with the 500 vort swinging through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Orange County is always the exception, they pull a 6 inch amount outta their ass in every storm. LOL we did just yesterday. It was a b*tch snowblowing the watersoaked paste off the driveway. You are right we seem to jackpot most times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM verbatim has 4-6" for most of NJ and higher amounts N and E. Very nice run. 12z RGEM total snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Currently at work and the interesting thing going on this morning is that the models have tremendously underestimated the jet dynamics over the OH Valley, we're getting tons of aircraft reporting turbulence in altitudes only some light chop was indicated, this could be a sign we've got heights pumping more ahead of the wave kicking out of the srn plains. Ton of southerly flow off the east coast , GFS will come west with the surface and precip field very comfortable with a 6 inch call in a lot of spots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 15-20 mm of precipitation is just offshore NJ on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The GFS printout shows about .25" at EWR and .3" at JFK. I don't see anything near a half inch. @ 36 hrs you see a 996 at the Benchmark , you see the GFS precip flow around that low Now look at the 6z 42 hr same time and look at its interpretation of its precip field ,less organized . So the depth of the Liquid is better on this run around its center , not quite to the NAM but not far off . GFS precip too small for a 12 mb fall inside 12 hrs coming Northeast IMO as it is it .50 city east . Nam .50 - .75 just think theres room to trend better its been coming our way for 24 hrs now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 They've also blown the snow across OK right now, OKC moderate snow the last hour with the 500 vort swinging through. LOL Total Model Mayhem Meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 15-20 mm of precipitation is just offshore NJ on the RGEM. I'm pretty close to the 15-20 mm line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Any possibility the advisories go to warnings later on? Probably not, even though warning criteria is 6" the chances of getting that much area wide is rather small. Looks like 3-5" with locally higher amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The GFS printout shows about .25" at EWR and .3" at JFK. I don't see anything near a half inch. Precip field doesnt match dynamics . Thought it read .50 - if it doesnt it should and I thnk it comes west - as of know its on its own wit hthe weaker QPF HARD TO ONLY GET .25 QPF with a system progged this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 LOL we did just yesterday. It was a b*tch snowblowing the watersoaked paste off the driveway. You are right we seem to jackpot most times. probably the heaviest 6" I had to shovel in yrs but at least we know it isn't going anywhere anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm a little worried about mixing from route 111 east for Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm pretty close to the 15-20 mm line. 20mm = .78" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The GFS printout shows about .25" at EWR and .3" at JFK. I don't see anything near a half inch. When you have the SREF's/NAM and GGEM all showing higher QPF totals than the GFS I wouldn't worry about it too much. The low takes a track slightly further offshore than the GGEM/NAM but it's in nearly the identical position that the 12z NAM was down on the VA/NC border. The initial wave also doesn't look quite as sharp or as negatively tilted as what the NAM shows which might not be pumping up the heights along the coast as much as what the other models are showing. Still not a bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 20mm = .78" I guess 4-6" of snow is a good bet. With upwards to 8" of snow at SW CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Whatever happened to weenie maps? I always enjoyed seeing wide swaths of 8-12 inches in a storm progged to only dump 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Probably not, even though warning criteria is 6" the chances of getting that much area wide is rather small. Looks like 3-5" with locally higher amounts. So I guess it'll be a high end advisory event then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Whatever happened to weenie maps? I always enjoyed seeing wide swaths of 8-12 inches in a storm progged to only dump 4. They cause nothing but fights. Put up a map that shows 8" in West Milford and 1" on Long Island and the natives will get very angry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Fair Warning the Euro may not show tons of QPF . So no one jump out of a window . It sometimes misses QPF close in . The key to Euro is how much it deepens the LP and where the surface feature ends up- The high RES should take it from there . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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