PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Latest SREF is also much warmer. In fact, CNJ and places south and east have some mixing issues say from Manalpan south and east. I mean wetter solution , The models SHOULD start to cool this thing off , If you run a LP from Cape hat at 1008 to Montauk 996 inside 12 hrs with NE winds and " if " u drop .75 QPF in that time , your gona cool that column . Guys fall in love with 850 interpretation on the models and not looking at the Dynamics . The models lov to blowtorch the coast , only to play catch up I am not saying it cant happen , BUT i thnk this is mostly snow FROM SNJ north thru most of LI , looking it from here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM is pretty close to the coast actually. I'm starting to get stoked now. Almost all of the good high resolution models are trending northwest and quicker with the phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If you are going to suddenly fall in love with the nam after dismissing it for days, you have to at least also consider how warm it is. "warm bias" aside, it shows a closed 850 low over pittsburgh at hr 27 and closes off the 700 low in upstate NY In these situations I tend to go off experience of past storms with similar air masses and tracks. I've seen borderline setups in the 850-1000mb setup before with these tracks and generally the worst we see if some PL mixing in for places like JFK/ISP and sometimes you see more mixing on the twin forks. This is never a setup where anyone is going over to rain other than eastern LI and I'm not so sure even they would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 So what if it deepens even faster, will that eliminating the mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Rgem has moderate to heavy snow for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 At work now so I can't really check but what does the RGEM give us in comparison with its previous runs ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM is pretty close to the coast actually. I'm starting to get stoked now. Almost all of the good high resolution models are trending northwest and quicker with the phase. Around 0.5" QPF for most, with similar low position/strength as NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 850's stay below freezing the entire storm for here; Southern New Jersey goes above freezing according to 12z NAM. I'm not really worried about the 850's. It's the 900-975mb is where I'm concerned. If I lived on the south shore or east end I would be very concerned.. Thats R/S line is literally in your backyards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Rgem has moderate to heavy snow for the area I'm starting to think that the SREFs/RGEM had the right idea all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 So what if it deepens even faster, will that eliminating the mixing issues. Most likely. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The RGEM is a deadly short term model with 4DVAR. To see it trending northwest with big QPF values is very exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If I lived on the south shore or east end I would be very concerned.. Thats R/S line is literally in your backyards. If I lived up by you I would be concerned as well. Not for lack of cold air but for lack of precip in general. Seems like there will be a very tight gradiant on the NW side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjvesnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The RGEM is a deadly short term model with 4DVAR. To see it trending northwest with big QPF values is very exciting. Do you have any details on the QPF amounts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If I lived up by you I would be concerned as well. Not for lack of cold air but for lack of precip in general. Seems like there will be a very tight gradiant on the NW side of the storm. Not worried at all.. Looks like a general 4-6" up this way with current trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The RGEM is a deadly short term model with 4DVAR. To see it trending northwest with big QPF values is very exciting. And no concern of mixing further and further NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Do you have any details on the QPF amounts? Waiting on detailed maps. From what I can see on my phone the black and white QPF maps look very, very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 And no concern of mixing further and further NW? Definitely a concern east of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not worried at all.. Looks like a general 4-6" up this way with current trends. Well I'm hopeful that you do get that up your way because if you do, I stand a chance at getting even more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM is def. concerning for those east of the city.. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Definitely a concern east of the city Yeah, Im getting concerned here in NW Queens this is coming W in a hurry. Wouldn't that be a b**ch if it were to be a stronger storm with more precip and have it rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Whoa! The 12Z RGEM has Moderate to Heavy Snow for about 6 Hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I have to think that heavier precip rates will cause snow everywhere, if there isn't a real mechanism to warm the boundary or other layers. However, it would be a tremendous to go from little precip to rain within 12 hours. And if it will mix anywhere, it's guaranteed to happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Gfs already looks closer to coast at 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 1008 inside hse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM is def. concerning for those east of the city.. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html lol..well that would be a first..storm going to the se by 150 miles with the 850 line south in late December and it's rain on long island..this winter that is quite possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Light snow moving in at 30 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Every model has jumped stronger and a little slower with that lead vort. It's just enough to let the northern stream catch up in time and it also amplifies the height field and the surface low takes a slightly farther NW track initially instead of swinging east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hr 36 mod snow back to NYC. Looks like immediate coast has Ptype issues at start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NYC-east .50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS has less QPF than others, but def. another model jumping NW in a hurry... I'd obv take the short rage high res models but the NAM still scares me after the performance w/ the last storm (but SREFs and RGEM make us all more comfortable...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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