IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's moments like these that make endless days of tracking all worth it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM is wonderful. solid 4-6" event for the whole area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Through hour 36 (might be a little more snow to come) northern NJ and NYC have between 0.5 and 0.6" QPF. All snow...verbatim now a 5-7" deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM is wonderful. solid 4-6" event for the whole area. Ahhh! You beat me posting the map! Anyway, is this an all snow event depicted by the NAM? Even for LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 everyone was throwing the nam out yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM QPF showed .5-.75 from Bethlehem, PA to Bridgeport, CT and down to Belmar, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's a fast mover but it takes a more climo favored track from just off the Outer Banks to just east of ACY and then by hr 36 it's near the benchmark. A solid 8+ hour event with moderate snow for everyone. Looks like the best dynamics get as far west as the DE river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ahhh! You beat me posting the map! Anyway, is this an all snow event depicted by the NAM? Even for LI? South shore kisses the 850 0c line at hour 33, but otherwise all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 here is the 24 hr precip at 36hrs http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/12znamp24036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The lead wave is much more amplified. Before we were getting SWFE snow from the initial wave and then only brushed by the coastal. Now on the 12z NAM we don't get much SWFE snows and instead we get hit fairly hard by the coastal itself. I would think there is still some room for this to come even further NW based on the latest trends including the SREF's which keep ticking NW with each consecutive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 .5+ for whole area woof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 here is the 24 hr precip at 36hrs http://raleighwx.ame...2znamp24036.gif That's Warning criteria snowfall for much of the area, even with 10:1 ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 everyone was throwing the nam out yesterday... Don't ruin this moment for us by throwing in objectivity. WOOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 everyone was throwing the nam out yesterday... as they would if it showed out to sea today, looks like everyone is taking the numbers and preaching it as gospel in a matter of seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS will hopefully tell us if this shift is for real... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 that lead s/w has been in a well sampled area for a couple days now...what is suddenly causing it to become more amped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 this storm bombs out after moving over the benchmark. Cape cod gets a foot of snow+ in 6 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Another text book case of the models 48 hrs out missing a 6 inch plus storm to your South and East - 6 inch for most - 850`s should drill into that center on NE winds , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 that lead s/w has been in a well sampled area for a couple days now...what is suddenly causing it to become more amped? For whatever reason, the models are picking up on the idea of a stronger/sharper initial wave. It's making the trough go negative tilt nice and early and raises the heights significantly off the coast allowing for a further north track. I have reason to believe it's not finished trending NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Out snowshoeing, freezing my hands off whilst refreshing my iPhone. I love this stuff! Makes waiting up for models worth it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Takes a near perfect track, too bad the intense precip shield is so compact/tight with the core of the coastal... that being said Im fine with a 5-7" storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 .5- .7 QPF in 12 hrs thrown into minus 2 air at 850 , Watch for Winter Storm warnings to be issued for Northern parts of Nassau and Suffolk counties if GFS agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NYC and NE are actually in the 6"+ as well....I think we are still good for 3-4" areawide with some 5" amounts. My original call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Takes a near perfect track, too bad the intense precip shield is so compact/tight with the core of the coastal... that being said Im fine with a 5-7" storm I wouldn't exactly call it a perfect track. Maybe for far Eastern New England and LI points east. Out here I would appreciate another 50 mile shift northwest but in these types of events there is always going to be someone getting screwed. That precip shield may end up even tighter on the NW side. I just hope the precip shield extends far enough to the NW that everyone in our sub-forum is able to get in on the fun. If the coast changes over, well that's a disadvantage to living in paradise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 as they would if it showed out to sea today, looks like everyone is taking the numbers and preaching it as gospel in a matter of seconds Well this time the NAM does have support from some other models, its not completely out on its own, so it COULD be right. The 09Z old ETA is now way NW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 For whatever reason, the models are picking up on the idea of a stronger/sharper initial wave. It's making the trough go negative tilt nice and early and raises the heights significantly off the coast allowing for a further north track. I have reason to believe it's not finished trending NW. yea, im sure it will keep trending NW until your backyard is in the jackpot....just like the last system was trending colder and more SE. the nam was thrown out yesterday and now today, its the guidance of choice. bi-polar snow weenies! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't think this will trend any further N&W. The storm is less than 24 hrs away. I think the models will be locked in from here on out. If they keep trending more N&W within the next 18hrs, then that ain't good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bmc10 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't think this will trend any further N&W. The storm is less than 24 hrs away. I think the models will be locked in from here on out. If they keep trending more N&W within the next 18hrs, then that ain't good. What? No! That is what guidance is for, to adjust as necessary. Minor changes can cause changes even up to the last few hours and models are good at displaying those transformations. This is often why we have last minute bumps and adjustments before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This is a BM storm , The key will be how rapidily this system deepens already the models are coming around to how fast this is intesnifying , Thats why you see the precip shield and QPF expand . 2 things that argue against a lot more than 6 inches ,is its a fast mover and really deepens from AC into Cape Cod ,a tad late for us . So some places in Southern New England may see a FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 925mb temps get awfully close to the city this run and actually cover most of eastern LI during the height. Verbatim. Whether or not evap cooling keeps the column cool enough is another thing. Its iffy for i-95 philly to NYC this run. (againm verbatim) haven't checked raw #;s or soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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