PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Almost half of the 6z GEFS ENS bring the 0.5" line to the west of NYC. Many members are a good bit wetter their 00z members. A few even show the 0.75" line on NYC. A third of those members show .75 to 1 across long island , so if there's a trend here its our way, think when all said and done the model prob show .50 accross most of the area and more further east. The RGEM shows 15. To 20 CM across Suffolk county so you can see how the models are now seeing the deepening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfsheepsheadbay Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 A third of those members show .75 to 1 across long island , so if there's a trend here its our way, think when all said and done the model prob show .50 accross most of the area and more further east. The RGEM shows 15. To 20 CM across Suffolk county so you can see how the models are now seeing the deepening Careful. The rgem is warmer for LI too, and it shows at least half of the precip as rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 OKX now showing all snow for my area--it had rain/snow for saturday yesterday... ...news 12(rich hoffman)forecasted precip map looked like mostly rain for us on LI.. (a lot of green on that simulation..not snow!)..having my doubts now..gonna be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ...news 12(rich hoffman)forecasted precip map looked like mostly rain for us on LI.. (a lot of green on that simulation..not snow!)..having my doubts now..gonna be close! You'll be alright, temps won't get above 34 or 35 before snow starts and dewpoints will be down in the middle 20s. Also little if any wind component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The position of the coastal front will be important for Suffolk. Even the colder GFS is showing enough of an onshore component at ISP for r/s mixing issues before the winds shift more NE and colder air arrives with all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's going to be hard for the snow to stick on the island. Unless it comes down at a good clip so evap cooling can take place and cool the surface temps. This is a piece from the 6z nam text output with temperatures above freezing up to 950mb when the best vv's occur and precip. During that time according to the nam .19 falls during that time. 1000mb Temp ©: 3.3 (hr36) 2.4 (hr39) 975mb Temp ©: 1.5 1.5 950mb Temp ©: 0.5 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's going to be hard for the snow to stick on the island. Unless it comes down at a good clip so evap cooling can take place and cool the surface temps. This is a piece from the 6z nam text output with temperatures above freezing up to 950mb when the best vv's occur and precip. During that time according to the nam .19 falls during that time. 1000mb Temp ©: 3.3 (hr36) 2.4 (hr39) 975mb Temp ©: 1.5 1.5 950mb Temp ©: 0.5 1.2 I would be more confident about heavy enough rates if the best UVV's were further west instead of just off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 2-4 is the good call....reading the the thread omg you see the bias of wanting more and almost if you wish it enough and say it enough there will be more...just be happy with 2-4, take it and run with some areas getting the jackpot but those areas also will have some mixing issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Posted above but here is the graphical representation..the RGEM trended west a good bit at 06z and is only a few miles away from bringing the goods...in fact it still brings 10-15mm of snow to Northeast NJ/NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Just glancing at SV maps...looks like the 09z SREFs ticked north and west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Usually not a lot of mixing issues when u run a 1006 mb from cape hatt to 998 to the bm in 8 hrs and mix w ne winds. Its a nice. 4 plus storm for most. Some 6 s. Will show up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Posted above but here is the graphical representation..the RGEM trended west a good bit at 06z and is only a few miles away from bringing the goods...in fact it still brings 10-15mm of snow to Northeast NJ/NYC. Quite a few models are near misses with the coastal precip shield, the high res NAM and old ETA both just miss also, a 50 mile shift would bring it onshore, maybe not even that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Posted above but here is the graphical representation..the RGEM trended west a good bit at 06z and is only a few miles away from bringing the goods...in fact it still brings 10-15mm of snow to Northeast NJ/NYC. 992 from 1008 gotta believe that precip shield is more robust if u run it to the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 From Mt. Hollly. I think these numbers might be a bit high in Western sections given the best dynamics will be at or near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Patrick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 probably would be closer to 2 than 4 in the western most areas...but a general 2-4 is a good forecast. Some will have more lift, better ratios to balance out the lack of precip. From Mt. Hollly. I think these numbers might be a bit high in Western sections given the best dynamics will be at or near the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM is coming in significantly more amplified with the height field on the east coast when compared to the 06z run. These differences aren't that slight, either...pretty significant and easy to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 From Mt. Hollly. I think these numbers might be a bit high in Western sections given the best dynamics will be at or near the coast. think they r too low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This is going to get interesting. Hopefully a stronger low will bring in more colder air to keep the precip as snow here on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM is much more amplified with the lead wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Negative tilt already at hr 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Nam is much closer to coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Mod snow for everyone hr 33. Se nj is prob rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Oh yeah -- by hour 30 the NAM is noticeably wetter across the area and further NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Big hit on the NAM from 30-33 hours. Oh my. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Nam now has .25+ in one three hr period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hr 42 06z NAM the low was off the VA/NC coast. Hr 30 on the 12z NAM low is sitting ontop of the NC beaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wow. Mod precip for 9 hours all snow NE of SE Jerz. A wrinkle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 look at that deepening - hr 27 1004 cape hatteras hr 33 996 off AC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Another .25+ between hr 33-36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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