NYCSuburbs Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z GEFS and CMC are east. Trend west and stronger over the next 72 hours, and we have a very solid storm. This far out, there were still plenty of GLC solutions modeled for the 26-27 storm. This time it's been mostly a track right along the coast, a close to benchmark track, or out to sea. It's definitely not out of the question to see this end up a bit too far west once again but I'm somewhat encouraged by the latest trends. I don't remember many recent cases where a medium range consistently modeled GLC ended up as a moderate-major snowstorm for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The 0z Euro looks nearly identical to today's 12z run of the JMA for this storm. The JMA was still just a touch more perfect with it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0z Euro ensemble mean is in nearly perfect agreement with the operational run for this storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0z Euro ensemble mean is in nearly perfect agreement with the operational run for this storm potential. I'm actually feeling this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 A lot of overrunning with this one so far on 12z gfs. Dc-Phl. Looks like a advisory level for the city. Going to be a tad to Far East, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z gfs looks to be in good spot this far out. a little more organized than last nights run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The surface depiction doesn't seem to be matching up with h5, and h5 looks pretty strange. A missed/partial phase with one of the vortmaxes continuing to dig south. Bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Yeah a scraper this run. Not bad for 144 hr out, the threat is there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 no matter the pattern, having the gfs miss the phase and kick systems to the S and E is always a good thing.... this far out. I think the euro will show us something special in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Looks like the pna is heading towards positive which should benefit us with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 no matter the pattern, having the gfs miss the phase and kick systems to the S and E is always a good thing.... this far out. I think the euro will show us something special in a few hours. I agree. And something doesn't quite match up at h5 with the GFS and the surface. I'm a bit skeptical that such an h5 depiction would lead to the storm getting booted off North Carolina. Looking forward to the Euro today. Should be fun to watch this one develop. The models seem to be converging on a Miller A, which are in my opinion, more fun to track and end up being the big snowmakers for the northeast. I'm going to be in Boston during this time period so I'm feeling good about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm actually feeling this one. ...hope you are right..we are usually in the screw zone.. (i'm in eastport)..hoping it stays far enough east where we can cash in. anything inside the benchmark usually means more rain than snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Ukie shows a 984 low near the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GGEM also looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not for DC-PHL-NYC crowd. Takes 1004 low over Tenn. valley a bit further west than ideal. Major BL problem along the I-95. First glance, it's a sloppy rain to snow event. GGEM also looks nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Not for DC-PHL-NYC crowd. Takes 1004 low over Tenn. valley a bit further west than ideal. Major BL problem along the I-95. First glance, it's a sloppy rain to snow event. 12z GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We need stronger confluence and a stronger HP to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Are you guys really talking rain snow line 6 days out ?. All due respect thats borderline insanity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm not really bothering with this one for a few more days at least. OTS right now is good for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 We need stronger confluence and a stronger HP to the north. I think the airmass is going to be cold enough for this storm. It's just a matter of getting the system in the right place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I'm looking into this storm further. Based on the teleconnections, there could be a +NAO/Neutral AO/+PNA/Neutral EPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro looks good at 108 hours but the energy digging over the Central US is lagging behind the northern stream a bit. Could see a bit more of a strung out solution if it doesn't catch up. But its trying -- and plenty of confluence to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro looks good at 108 hours but the energy digging over the Central US is lagging behind the northern stream a bit. Could see a bit more of a strung out solution if it doesn't catch up. But its trying -- and plenty of confluence to the north. It's good that there's lots of confluence. That's just incase if it starts to weaken in the next 48-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hr 132 1004 on top of obx. Overrunning up to NYC, plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice hit at 138. Moderate snow for all. Merry christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hr 138 990 100 miles east of acy. Area getting pounded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z ECM looks awesome by 138. Maybe a little SE, but by 144 lows bombing out over the Benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Cold storm verbatim. Surface below 32 entire storm 95-west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 I love seeing this only about 120 hours out. Not in the fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Hr 132 1004 on top of obx. Overrunning up to NYC, plenty cold 977 mB LP slightly west of the B/M at Day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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