Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Temper expectations, and you'll be much less disappointed when a storm like this inevitably can't produce due to a poor overall pattern. If there was a block to slow down the progressive flow, a phase would have been far more likely. Instead, the pieces of energy will stay separate until they are out in the Atlantic. At least we're getting something from one of the waves, and the models seem to be trending more intense with that one wave. Better than zero and cirrus clouds. Sure its better than nothing but 4" is a solid plowable snow, 2" is borderline and will melt/sublimate rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 MM5 http://cheget.msrc.sunysb.edu/mm5rt_data/2...p24.60.0000.gif Sure its better than nothing but 4" is a solid plowable snow, 2" is borderline and will melt/sublimate rather quickly. It is going to get pretty cold after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 MM5 http://cheget.msrc.s...p24.60.0000.gif It is going to get pretty cold after the storm. Understood. Can't wait for tuesday night but this small amount will sublimate rather quickly. The more snow the colder it will be, so the more the merrier hopefully we get a little more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Understood. Can't wait for tuesday night but this small amount will sublimate rather quickly. The more snow the colder it will be, so the more the merrier hopefully we get a little more precip. Actually you may be surprised how well even a 2-3" snowfall may hold up with near freezing temps and a low sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Upton sure changed their minds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 At the very least the lead vort has trended stronger on the NAM thus far and there seems to be slightly more phasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM with a nice tick to the NW this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm using the wunderground maps (which actually make comparison between runs incredibly easy as adjusting the run time also adjusts the time of the image to account for the time difference, so it's seamless), and the 6z looks slightly improved. By hour 30, the storm is slightly more phased & closer to the coast. Slower with the onset of precip, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks like some QPF shadowing is starting to show up on the guidance over parts of NJ. The surface low/higher QPF values are closer to the coast, but so is the best lift...and there is more subsidence developing on the NW side of that good lift and that means less of the broad light to moderate lift that was previously bringing most of the area 0.25-0.40" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Srefs look more amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Trying to bring heavier precip ashore. Hopefully it keeps ticking NW and stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That is such a tight precip field on the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The SREFs ticked a good bit northwest and wetter....some of these are big hits..this is actually pretty surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 3z SREF actually looks surprisingly good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The SREFs ticked a good bit northwest and wetter....some of these are big hits..this is actually pretty surprising. Yeah, pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This looks very close, I'm wondering if the precip fields will adjust more as we get even closer instead of being so tight to the west of the storm. Normally with the track the new Nam shows, we'd get a bit higher QPF. I think 3-6" is now looking like a good bet pending any last minute adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 4km NAM looks really good for low positing/strength, but QPF is significantly restricted to the LPA's immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This looks very close, I'm wondering if the precip fields will adjust more as we get even closer instead of being so tight to the west of the storm. Normally with the track the new Nam shows, we'd get a bit higher QPF. I think 3-6" is now looking like a good bet pending any last minute adjustments. Some of those SREF members are significant hits, why can't it ever be clear cut? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Some of those SREF members are significant hits, why can't it ever be clear cut? lol If it was, would it be as much fun? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Mt. Holly issued a WWA for parts of PA and NJ calling for 2-4" of snow which is reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If it was, would it be as much fun? Well yes and no, sometimes you get let down but sometimes you get pleasantly surprised. Tracking the storms is good fun though just drives us crazy sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Some of the SREF members really are intense Just shows the delicate dilema we have here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 6z GFS has a better phase and thus the surface low is closer to the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 6z GFS has a better phase and thus the surface low is closer to the coast Good trends so far. Wouldn't take much for a significant event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Good trends so far. Wouldn't take much for a significant event. With a low deepening like that and relatively close, you would think the precip should extend further away from the center. IDK, but any closer and LI is in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 With a low deepening like that and relatively close, you would think the precip should extend further away from the center. IDK, but any closer and LI is in trouble. OKX now showing all snow for my area--it had rain/snow for saturday yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 6z gefs is closer to the coast just like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 6z GFS progs a really nice 8 mb drop inside 6 hrs , think 4 inch amounts are a pretty good bet around the area If there's 6 it's on the east end and on into eastern ct Ths storm blows up once north of the bm so new England coast in for a nice show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Almost half of the 6z GEFS ENS bring the 0.5" line to the west of NYC. Many members are a good bit wetter their 00z members. A few even show the 0.75" line on NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The 06z RGEM is more amplified and is wetter for the region. NYC gets 10-15 mm of precipitation on the 6z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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