nzucker Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Will the Catskills (Liberty NY) do as good as NYC or less? I would think a bit less, you're a bit too far from the coast. However, orographics/terrain enhancement might help some up there with the elevation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I would think a bit less, you're a bit too far from the coast. However, orographics/terrain enhancement might help some up there with the elevation. ratios should still yield him 2-3".. Its gonna be pure powder up that way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Missing a strong high to the north will again dumb it down though, those events are great when you have that high, we've been unable to get them the last few winters. The antecedent airmass is cold enough though...I guess you would prefer a strong high to the north but even if we get a strong SWFE there would be plenty of moisture/etc available...so it'll work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 The antecedent airmass is cold enough though...I guess you would prefer a strong high to the north but even if we get a strong SWFE there would be plenty of moisture/etc available...so it'll work. The heights in SE Canada are really low. So we have great confluence, a good antecedent airmass, combined with some SE ridging and strong baroclinicity. I'm surprised the QPF isn't higher, based on the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Is there good confidence that this will be an all snow event for central LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Is there good confidence that this will be an all snow event for central LI? I'd be willing to be your ok, east end might be iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ggem is j-j-juicy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 00z GFS and 00z NAM have rain moving in a some point. 00z GFS starts off as snow, changes to rain, then back to snow. 00z NAM Starts out as all rain then changes to snow. Not really buying it since the global models haven't been doing well at all when it comes to determining ptype. GFS had us all rain for the Christmas event but we had snow for a good 50% of the storm. I'm hoping for a more amplified low but one that is not too close to the coast otherwise we'll get some mixing and change over and that will drop our totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 00z GFS and 00z NAM have rain moving in a some point. 00z GFS starts off as snow, changes to rain, then back to snow. 00z NAM Starts out as all rain then changes to snow. Not really buying it since the global models haven't been doing well at all when it comes to determining ptype. GFS had us all rain for the Christmas event but we had snow for a good 50% of the storm. I'm hoping for a more amplified low but one that is not too close to the coast otherwise we'll get some mixing and change over and that will drop our totals. Um, looks like snow to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ggem is j-j-juicy How much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Um, looks like snow to me. 00z NAM 4km High Resolution: 00z GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ggem is j-j-juicy Looks similar to the rest of the 0Z suite to me. Maybe a little juicier for the NJ shore LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 00z NAM 4km High Resolution: \ 00z GFS: Well, I'm good. I wouldn't worry too much, yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherweather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks similar to the rest of the 0Z suite to me. Maybe a little juicier for the NJ shore LI. yea thats probably a better way of putting it. Juiciness is a bit further inland perhaps trending one would hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks similar to the rest of the 0Z suite to me. Maybe a little juicier for the NJ shore LI. GGEM has a 989 low on the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not looking good in terms of ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 00z NAM 4km High Resolution: 00z GFS: I highly doubt there's much rain with this. This will be moving in during the morning, when there's presumably some cooling down to freezing or below immediately before, and there's not much mechanism to torch the boundary layer. Some of those P-type algorithms are crap to be honest. I can see perhaps it taking longer to stick near the coast but I doubt any warm layer is thick enough for rain (watch me eat those words). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 So many of these precip type algorithms treat Long Island like it's an ocean. I'm really not concerned about precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I highly doubt there's much rain with this. This will be moving in during the morning, when there's presumably some cooling down to freezing or below immediately before, and there's not much mechanism to torch the boundary layer. Some of those P-type algorithms are crap to be honest. I can see perhaps it taking longer to stick near the coast but I doubt any warm layer is thick enough for rain (watch me eat those words). Agreed, but with a cold ground and favorable sun angles It should stick. (obviously not over subways and warmer areas of the city) luckily for me there are no subways to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The only thing that shows warming is in the 925mb layer over LI, this according to the 18z GFS, not 00z. So it may be an all snow event. You're right, going with the ptype algorithms isn't a great idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 0z Nogaps = ots https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_namer&dtg=2012122800∏=prpτ=048&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Sfc low on the Euro a bit faster/further NE and appears to be marginally wetter across the area upon a cursory glance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Judging by the lack of posts, its nothing new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 KNYC euro .26" gfs .29" nam .26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 2-3" of snow with up to 4" to the Northeast is the general consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 KNYC euro .26" gfs .29" nam .26" 2 inch storm. Better than nothing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 2 inch storm. Better than nothing I guess. 2-4 inches is a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 2 inch storm. Better than nothing I guess. Temper expectations, and you'll be much less disappointed when a storm like this inevitably can't produce due to a poor overall pattern. If there was a block to slow down the progressive flow, a phase would have been far more likely. Instead, the pieces of energy will stay separate until they are out in the Atlantic. At least we're getting something from one of the waves, and the models seem to be trending more intense with that one wave. Better than zero and cirrus clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RPM has a moderate snowfall in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Temper expectations, and you'll be much less disappointed when a storm like this inevitably can't produce due to a poor overall pattern. If there was a block to slow down the progressive flow, a phase would have been far more likely. Instead, the pieces of energy will stay separate until they are out in the Atlantic. At least we're getting something from one of the waves, and the models seem to be trending more intense with that one wave. Better than zero and cirrus clouds. I think the pattern right now is a pretty decent one. I mean we are going to get accumulating snow this weekend with 1-2 more threats after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.