ag3 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Can you zoom in a little further I can't quite see if the 0.50" line goes north or south of my street Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 At Westchester County, if you use the 15:1 ratio, Warning Criteria is plausible and the snowfall will range from 4-8" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The RGEM looks very juicy, actually brings rain to the coast at the end, not totally out of character for the RGEM to do that though on ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Too bad those ratios won't happen with the surface at 32F during half of the event, according to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Well...looks like the RGEM tossed one tonight as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The RGEM looks very juicy, actually brings rain to the coast at the end, not totally out of character for the RGEM to do that though on ptype. is the 12/19/1979 a good analog for this storm?...we got 3.5" from a storm that tracked to far south for big accumulations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Well...looks like the RGEM tossed one tonight as well. Nice. I'm pretty happy to see this. I guess the 3"+ December Snowfall will finally happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 is the 12/19/1979 a good analog for this storm?...we got 3.5" from a storm that tracked to far south for big accumulations... That looks like an overrunning event to me, a clipper type system from the west slammed into a big high over Quebec and New England. I was thinking this is more a castrated version of 12/5/02 to an extent. there was better interaction between the 2 systems and a better surface low that time. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2002/us1205.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That looks like an overrunning event to me, a clipper type system from the west slammed into a big high over Quebec and New England. I was thinking this is more a castrated version of 12/5/02 to an extent. Ouch . Lets see what the GFs spits out next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hr 42 light snow for metro area. Mod snow Phl. 00z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is pretty nice. Surface low develops a little faster offshore and there's more precipitation than the 18z run at least on the 42-48 hour frames. NYC gets almost 0.25" just in the 6 hour period from 42-48 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hr 45 mod snow brushes NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The vertical velocities have improved tremendously this run too..showing good lift just to the NW of the surface low traversing from PHL to NYC on I-95 and east of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I wonder if this will turn out to be the case where the models continuously make last minute adjustment even as the event starts to occur. In reality we're talking about the timing of certain features being slightly off from producing a significant to major snowstorm to a minor 1-3" type event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Close to .5 this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Well, so far the 0z suite has been optimistic. Lets see what the Euro shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That looks like an overrunning event to me, a clipper type system from the west slammed into a big high over Quebec and New England. I was thinking this is more a castrated version of 12/5/02 to an extent. there was better interaction between the 2 systems and a better surface low that time. http://www.meteo.psu...2002/us1205.php I was on the northwest edge of that storm in State College with 1-2" foretasted. Enjoyed my 1-2" even though I had to shovel off the other 6" to get to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 might be able to pull off high end advisory to low end warning criteria snows from these american runs....and the areas that got screwed last night may do the best saturday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Nice 4 to 6 area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Can anyone post the total precip output from the GFS for KLGA? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The bombing of the low is still a bit too far SE and slow for my liking, but that is to be expected given the rather broad vort energy in the trough. Let's hope to see more congealed energy w/ tonight's Euro. As it stands, I think it's time to pull the trigger on a moderate 2-4" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Can anyone post the total precip output from the GFS for KLGA? Thanks in advance Going to be roughly .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Accu pro is usually on the money, not sure why it's different then what peeps are saying in here.. knyc SAT 12Z 29-DEC -0.8 -2.7 1014 72 99 0.00 551 540 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 0.2 -2.8 1008 93 99 0.18 543 536 SUN 00Z 30-DEC -0.8 -4.5 1006 95 89 0.11 537 533 SUN 06Z 30-DEC -2.3 -6.4 1007 90 57 0.00 534 529 Klga SAT 06Z 29-DEC -0.9 -1.5 1017 78 36 0.00 553 540 SAT 12Z 29-DEC -0.5 -2.6 1014 72 99 0.00 551 540 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 0.5 -2.8 1008 92 99 0.17 543 537 SUN 00Z 30-DEC -0.4 -4.4 1005 95 88 0.12 537 533 SUN 06Z 30-DEC -1.9 -6.4 1006 89 57 0.00 534 529 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
listarz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Approximately what time on Saturday is this supposed to begin in central LI? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Approximately what time on Saturday is this supposed to begin in central LI? Thanks. Would like to know this as well and when would it end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Accu pro is usually on the money, not sure why it's different then what peeps are saying in here.. knyc SAT 12Z 29-DEC -0.8 -2.7 1014 72 99 0.00 551 540 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 0.2 -2.8 1008 93 99 0.18 543 536 SUN 00Z 30-DEC -0.8 -4.5 1006 95 89 0.11 537 533 SUN 06Z 30-DEC -2.3 -6.4 1007 90 57 0.00 534 529 Klga SAT 06Z 29-DEC -0.9 -1.5 1017 78 36 0.00 553 540 SAT 12Z 29-DEC -0.5 -2.6 1014 72 99 0.00 551 540 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 0.5 -2.8 1008 92 99 0.17 543 537 SUN 00Z 30-DEC -0.4 -4.4 1005 95 88 0.12 537 533 SUN 06Z 30-DEC -1.9 -6.4 1006 89 57 0.00 534 529 I think people are adding up every 3 hours off the Vista maps, which is incorrect because each 3 hours represents previous 6 hours of precip. Same goes with the instantweathermaps. 3 hour increments but 6 hours previous precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Would like to know this as well and when would it end? Start maybe 10am-noon and end 6-8pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It will be interesting to see if this shortwave can trend stronger in future runs...maybe turn into a psuedo-SWFE type deal. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/f108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It will be interesting to see if this shortwave can trend stronger in future runs...maybe turn into a psuedo-SWFE type deal. http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_0z/f108.gif Missing a strong high to the north will again dumb it down though, those events are great when you have that high, we've been unable to get them the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Will the Catskills (Liberty NY) do as good as NYC or less? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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