Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hr 39 00z nam light snow up to earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Hr 42 light snow up to bdr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Really? Coastal within the Benchmark? Looks to head right about to the Benchmark, but precip area is very consolidated due to a progressive upper air flow that does not close off. This means no efficient moisture transport to the west and no real cold conveyor belt. We get good initial advection snow but the action related to the coastal is offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 With the lead vort 6 hours too fast and the northern stream still trying to dig in...it almost has a negative effect on the pattern and the entire trough becomes a progressive piece of crap. Yup, just shears the whole thing out. The one worry I have is that the system doesn't die out when it gets here as the new low develops way offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It is maddening. So close. So damn close. I honestly could get a pured 5 wood off the Jerz shore out to the good stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Precip has increased across IN, OH, and NPA for the past several runs (in response to sharper midlevels placing stronger SLP in that vicinity). Turing into a possible moderate snowstorm across the Ohio Valley. I hope that trend continues and the models eventually bring the .4 - .5" QPF right through our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 What a shame. Comes pretty close at 45 hours. The northern stream gets involved and things get cooking but the lead vort being a few hours too fast totally screws the entire setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yup, just shears the whole thing out. The one worry I have is that the system doesn't die out when it gets here as the new low develops way offshore. Even more frustrating to watch the northern stream s/w come in with so much vigor and amplify the entire trough at 45 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM is moving towards the model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 From a surface perspective, the offshore low did shift a bit further NW from the last run, and the .25" in 6 hours contour is not too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 What a shame. Comes pretty close at 45 hours. The northern stream gets involved and things get cooking but the lead vort being a few hours too fast totally screws the entire setup. It's almost certain that this will be a .25"-.50" type event. NAM is slowly heading towards the concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Any chance one slows or the other speeds up to change things for the better? A few hours isn't much. Just wondering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It really tired at the end there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Any chance one slows or the other speeds up to change things for the better? A few hours isn't much. Just wondering. Sure. But I wouldn't hang my hat on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Good to see the NAM finally catch on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM actually does look a little better at the surface, with moderate precip amounts just offshore. Slight adjustments could mean some of it reaches Long Island, NYC and the Jersey Shore. But still not major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Generally .25-5 inches through 10PM Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think we can all settle for a nice advisory level event and call it a day..especially given how much complaining people did the first month. Looks like the snow will stick around, too...we're entering a good pattern for cold and hopefully snow the next few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That .50 contour is right there... Anymore adjusts to the west will bring it ashore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think we can all settle for a nice advisory level event and call it a day..especially given how much complaining people did the first month. Looks like the snow will stick around, too...we're entering a good pattern for cold and hopefully snow the next few weeks. Here, here -- and on the weekend to boot. Thanks for the analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If this doesn't pan out, I think it hurts much worse for BOS and other parts of EMA. A few of the Euro runs really nailed them over the past few days as well as a handful of SREF and GEFS members. Plus they kind of missed out on this past storm and as modeled the coastal literally just misses them. A quick hitting few inches should feel great. The Xmas eve snow was excellent for an hour or two. It was really dumping. This time maybe it sticks around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Don't underestimate this storm. As modeled, this is a quick hitting burst of moderate snow with temperatures below freezing almost everywhere. That will likely make for a very wintry day. 3" blanketing all surfaces is as good or better than a heavy wet 6" that drips from the trees and melts circles around tree trunks, compacting to slush in 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 4km NAM has .50"+ for the city and it extends to the north shore of Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't really see the snow sticking to all surfaces in the NYC metro maybe n&w but not the city and the coast unless it comes down moderately for a couple of hours especially during the day with temps in the mid 30's like blue wave said before it will prob only stick to the colder surfaces until dark.... If it's still snowing after dark then it might start sticking to roads.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM definitely increased snowfall amounts with the 0.25-0.50" contour running closer to the coast. Looks like a weenie band of 4-6" from Philly to NYC http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 4km NAM has .50"+ for the city and it extends to the north shore of Nassau County. Interesting. I'd take that in a heartbeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 4km NAM has .50"+ for the city and it extends to the north shore of Nassau County. The overall precip was .25". But the model picked up on banding, which on this run sits right over the NYC Metro and drops over .50" of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM definitely increased snowfall amounts with the 0.25-0.50" contour running closer to the coast. Looks like a weenie band of 4-6" from Philly to NYC http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif Darker blue is the .50"+ shade: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Darker blue is the .50"+ shade: Can you zoom in a little further I can't quite see if the 0.50" line goes north or south of my street Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM definitely increased snowfall amounts with the 0.25-0.50" contour running closer to the coast. Looks like a weenie band of 4-6" from Philly to NYC http://www.meteo.psu...S_0z/snow60.gif Well sometimes we could all just go for a nice hotdog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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