uncle W Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 there's a chance NYC could set a daily snowfall record on the 29th...The record is 4.0" set in 1880...recent snowfalls were in 1987 and 1993... ..4.0" in 1880.... ..3.7" in 1993.... ..3.3" in 1945.... ..2.6" in 1987.... ..2.0" in 1917.... ..2.0" in 1960.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dosh Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 2-4" of powder is very underrated.... Especially when an exceptionally cold pattern follows. We'll probably keep this snow on the ground for over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I still like 3 NW to 6 Long Island inches for this wknd . Look at the Euro it takes a 1016 low off the SE coast runs it ( today ) 75 miles east of the benchmark to 986 thats a 20 mb drop inside 24 hrs . Thats prob not 1- 3 or 2 -4 . Plenty of SW flow in the Atlantic so its tucked closer to the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I still like 3 NW to 6 Long Island inches for this wknd . Look at the Euro it takes a 1016 low off the SE coast runs it ( today ) 75 miles east of the benchmark to 986 thats a 20 mb drop inside 24 hrs . Thats prob not 1- 3 or 2 -4 . Plenty of SW flow in the Atlantic so its tucked closer to the coast . Agreed. Coming back to Monmouth County for this? ha ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Agreed. Coming back to Monmouth County for this? ha ha ha Yeh , Hunter last 2 days GREAT , headin back to CN . Mt Holly 4 inches for a large portion of western and northern NJ ,they dont like the coast , but I think this is Snow or No , not a mixing issue for pp . They are usally more cautious , so I thnk thats speaks to the potential here . Upton likes 4 for most of Long Island , impressive that both offices agree . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Gfs is a solid advisory event through 48 hrs. .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS is definitely a little better through 54 hours. End result will probably be about the same or maybe a tick more liquid when compared to the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS with some .5 lollis up in the NE PA/NW NJ area at 48 w/ the northern stream. Also a wide swath of .5 out in the ocean about as far as I can cast my baitcasting rod... Not THAT far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Nice run .25+ for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This event reminds me a lot of that non-storm of 12/19/2010. 72 hours prior to that storm two years ago, the Euro had one hiccup run that gave us a monster storm, only to back off on the next run. Then, the Boxing Day blizzard came 7 days later in a much more favorable pattern. So, I think the 1/3/2013 storm will produce greatly for us since the pattern will be much better by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I found this to be the most accurate when it came to the last storm...so I'll post... http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122718&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=054 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Always go with the pattern in these setups. It just didn't scream to me potential for a big one. Too many flies in the ointment. Wait until we have a block over western Greenland, or at least a decent ridge out West and then maybe we can talk. This pattern's just way too progressive for a big one unless timed perfectly. It's still not impossible to see something a bit bigger than what's shown now on the models but I agree, this pattern definitely doesn't have as much potential as our other major snowstorms in 10-11 did. It would be nice to see something at least a bit bigger than a 2-4 inch snowfall but I'm definitely not complaining after how this month has been. I've only seen one 1"+ event since January and that was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I found this to be the most accurate when it came to the last storm...so I'll post... http://www.instantwe...ASNOWI&hour=054 Another one that shows LI as an ocean. Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Another one that shows LI as an ocean. Ugh. Yeah, a lot of snowfall maps have such low resolutions that the size of Long Island is insufficient to over come the warmth of the ocean. Pshh.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Mt holly going 3.4 here, awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY. AN ACCUMULATING SNOW OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANGE IN TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST COULD RESULT IN WARNING LEVEL SNOWFALL...6 INCHES OR MORE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yeah, a lot of snowfall maps have such low resolutions that the size of Long Island is insufficient to over come the warmth of the ocean. Pshh.. Yet Seattle is often shown as if its in the mountains and not affected by ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Mt holly going 3.4 here, awesome That would be nice. It would cover the grass, perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I see a max qpf of .343 over Northern NJ on the 18z GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 .34 at Andover .32 at Sussex .31 at Morristown .31 at Caldwell .31 at Somerville .27 at NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z GFS actually brings a little snow as close as South Jersey on Monday night also with a SWFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It gets as close to us as South Jersey again during the day on New Year's Day (Tuesday with a storm coming out of the Southeast). Need to keep an eye on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 As some have mentioned, we have to watch for a "shadow" to develop between where there's snow from the initial wave and then snow from the offshore low, which takes away from the initial wave's energy. That could be a hindrance for some of us getting decent accumulations, if that low gets going too fast. You can almost see the latest GFS and NAM showing it-since there's slightly more QPF over eastern PA than directly over NYC. It's a common Central PA problem I became all too accustomed to when I lived out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yeah thats what happened in Feb. 95. We were supposed to get 10-14" out there but the heavy stuff never got going and the best dynamics were over NJ/NYC area. We ended up with less than 5" of very light fluffy snow that mostly blew away the next day with 50 mph wind gusts. As some have mentioned, we have to watch for a "shadow" to develop between where there's snow from the initial wave and then snow from the offshore low, which takes away from the initial wave's energy. That could be a hindrance for some of us getting decent accumulations, if that low gets going too fast. You can almost see the latest GFS and NAM showing it-since there's slightly more QPF over eastern PA than directly over NYC. It's a common Central PA problem I became all too accustomed to when I lived out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If there is one thing to be said about this year over last, is we've had and are having a lot of storms to chase. This one gives us a nice low end event with fluffy snow following a powerful wind/snow/ice/rain event that followed a somewhat surprise Xmas eve snow. Now the GFS is TASTY around 1/4...with some serious cold air and big snows just off shore... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 so back on topic...this sat looks locked in, 2-4". I thought that maybe tonights runs will lock us in but there doesnt seem to be too much variance out there for any big changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa....totalprecip.php Looks like they are expecting very poor ratios near the coast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Mt holly going 3.4 here, awesome anything over 2 is enough to plow everyone for us, dont want more than 4 at all whats the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Almost every 12z GEFS member is wetter than the OP, especially from SEPA through CNJ, SENY, SCT, and LI. A few members have >.5 liquid from coastal NJ through E LI and to me that QPF looks quite reasonable based on the synoptic evolution. The SLP into the Ohio Valley appears to get a little more dominant with each run, and with it, the QPF field expands slightly further N and the low center consolidates slightly closer to the coast and stronger. The SREF snow probs are still too low IMO, especially from the City east towards LI. But they are usually too sensitive to surface temps near freezing. It looks cold enough to me, even to the coast and on LI. The snow probs were way too low for the Xmas snow and up the HV for last nights's storm. 1" probs should be at least 50% and 4" around 10% in my opinion for the tristate area (based on current data). And I believe those probs are actually still too low considering historical analogies and recents trends. We would be helped out by a slightly cooler BL, but midlevels are plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It was probably said earlier but the GGEM ensembles are east of the OP and relatively dry. The RGEM, however, is a light-moderate hit, probably similar QPF to the GFS. Considering the expected duration of 6 hours or so (maybe less), QPF in the vicinity of .3 would suggest periods of at least moderate snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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