Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Now that we know the big solution is out, what do you guys think about ratios, especially north and west? Higher than 10:1? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The 00z euro was the outlier all along most likely....we were just pulling for it to be the one that happens There's too much model consensus of an event forming that will simply give up to a few inches of snow. Unless several models suddenly jump west at 00z, this one's done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Disappointed. Wasted potential bet a lot of 2" reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Pretty shocking to see the Euro do that inside 72 hr Yes, kind of takes the wind out of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The 12z GGEM is probably the biggest hit left on the table. Still time for things to change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Pretty shocking to see the Euro do that inside 72 hr Yeah, it broke toward the ensemble mean. It also had a more amped OP run that it backed off early this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 1-3" is def fine by me... Freshen up the 6" snowpack laid down today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The 12z GGEM is probably the biggest hit left on the table. Still time for things to change though. Doubtful, all features involved have been sampled. Euro just caved not much of an event(relatively speaking) low end advisory snow at best. We can root for them GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 1-3" is def fine by me... Freshen up the 6" snowpack laid down today You just had to throw that in there didn't you? Lol, snowpack should help drop temps late in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The 12z GGEM is probably the biggest hit left on the table. Still time for things to change though. No. The entire 12z suite has almost the exact same precip now (using NYC as the center point): 12z GGEM: 8mm 12z UKIE: 8mm 12z GFS: 7mm 12z Euro: 6-8mm SREFS: similar A major model concensus at this point. 12z NAM is the driest with only about 4mm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yeah, it broke toward the ensemble mean. It also had a more amped OP run that it backed off early this week. It has seemed unusually erratic this winter. Not sure what is causing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The major differences look to be just a very late phase. The trough goes negative once the cyclone has already reached our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro was definitely an outlier. It was hard to digest the past two runs of the GFS being so far off. In the end, it's still a 1-3 or 2-4 event. No big deal given at best, Euro would have been 6-8 in. for most on the board. SREF's still going strong for a nice 2-4 inch swatch of snow from SW to NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No. The entire 12z suite has almost the exact same precip now: 12z GGEM: 8mm 12z UKIE: 8mm 12z GFS: 7mm 12z Euro: 6-8mm A major model concensus at this point. 12z NAM is the driest with only about 4mm. I think the point wasn't precip, but more in terms of storm development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No. The entire 12z suite has almost the exact same precip now: 12z GGEM: 8mm 12z UKIE: 8mm 12z GFS: 7mm 12z Euro: 6-8mm A major model concensus at this point. 12z NAM is the driest with only about 4mm. I'm surprised about the GGEM totals. Looks like it's coming down fairly hard for at least six hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 You just had to throw that in there didn't you? Lol, snowpack should help drop temps late in the week. lol.. Hey this snowpack is gonna you guys with your temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 It has seemed unusually erratic this winter. Not sure what is causing it. The ensembles have been great, though. If there are any really amped members, then any given OP run can and sometimes will have the physical "room" to show one of those amped solutions. It does seem though that the OP has been more prone than usual lately in showing a solution on the "extreme" side of its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm surprised about the GGEM totals. Looks like it's coming down fairly hard for at least six hours or so. Total precip from GGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lol.. Hey this snowpack is gonna you guys with your temps! Your temps, mine will remain summery as usual. It does really suck sometimes to see such low temps so close while its nothing special here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is a case where if the coastal low isnt gonna go big we'd rather it does not go at all. In that scenario we could get hit well from the northern stream vort, sometimes those things can surprise you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z GGEM total snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It has seemed unusually erratic this winter. Not sure what is causing it. Yeah, sometimes the OP is a touch too amplified with a solution and the ensemble position ends up verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Your temps, mine will remain summery as usual. It does really suck sometimes to see such low temps so close while its nothing special here. Ahhh.. Take the 1-3" this weekend. Something is always better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z UKIE is actually the best right now for a wider area. Shows all of NJ in the 7.5mm-10mm range: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Standard 10:1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ahhh.. Take the 1-3" this weekend. Something is always better than nothing. Yeah, I'm just bitter after last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Standard 10:1? Somewhere in that ballpark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is a case where if the coastal low isnt gonna go big we'd rather it does not go at all. In that scenario we could get hit well from the northern stream vort, sometimes those things can surprise you. You can really see that on the qpf maps from the 12z euro run today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Big low in the center of the Gulf of Mexico at 168 hrs, don't know if there is any mechanism to get it to come north though. Nope, slides out and shears out, but if that trough can sharpen up we would be dealing with a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.