Snow_Miser Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GGEM is a pretty nice hit. Heavier Precip than the 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Canadian and UK are decent, 3-6", maybe locally a little more deals. If there's a "consensus" now, this might be it. Hopefully the Euro stays with a big time storm, or else it's about off the table in my view and we have to catch what warm advection snow we can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I saw someone post it to an online weather board. Unfortunately, I don't have a link for you. I found it. Thank you. http://vortex.plymouth.edu/make.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The SREF mean looked like it was just a bit east of the Euro and ens last night. But some of the members have the more amped Euro look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 as of 12 noon 12/27 this is a light to moderate - 2 - 5 inch snowfall for NYC metro here is the HPC qpf http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/fill_99qwbg.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 1018 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012 DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ001-007>010-012>020-027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071- 101>106-281530- NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE- BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER- EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS- LOWER BUCKS- 1018 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A STORM TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY ULTIMATELY BE NEEDED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dabiggiu Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like the UKMET scrapes the coast with moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY SAT AS DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST... WITH ONE WEAKENING CENTER WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE SE COAST. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY SAT NIGHT AS IT PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM. EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF INDICATED THAT THIS PHASING WOULD TAKE PLACE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AT MOST...BUT NOW THE 00Z ECMWF...IN A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE NE PACIFIC TO THE CONUS...SWINGS THE BOMBING LOW VERY CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SAT NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF FROM NYC METRO EAST. THE 00Z GFS HAS MOVED TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION AS WELL...AND LEAST HALF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...IN A NOD TO THE 00Z ECMWF...ARE TRACKING NW OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND ARE MORE INTENSE. THIS YIELDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL OF 3 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...AND LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z GEFS Similar to 0/06z means? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Similar to 0/06z means? Slightly more precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The GEFS is definitely slightly more wrapped up with this storm and it has big impacts for far Eastern New England, and possibly even far eastern Long Island, as well as slightly higher impact for the rest of us than the operational GFS. The Euro will be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Similar to 0/06z means? The Minimum SLP on the mean is a few mb lower than it was for the 00z GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GEFS also shows a storm late next week sitting just off the Southeast Coast, and the Euro also shows a threat around this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GEFS also shows a storm late next week sitting just off the Southeast Coast, and the Euro also shows a threat around this time. There is a signal for something real big there, it may be more of a southern US/MA storm though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 There is a signal for something real big there, it may be more of a southern US/MA storm though. The models will probably really struggle for a while with the energy ejecting out of the SW and how it interacts with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Slap in the face of the century for the NAM, I think the 12Z NOGAPS is more of a hit than it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 as of 12 noon 12/27 this is a light to moderate - 2 - 5 inch snowfall for NYC metro here is the HPC qpf http://www.hpc.ncep....fill_99qwbg.gif Yeah as currently modeled this looks like a nice snow event for most of the area. Low end chance for 4" and temperatures should be cold enough to accumulate even along the coast (as it looks now). Maybe even upper 20s just inland, and subfreezing temperatures can make light snow events feel a lot snowier. The GGEM solution looks great for NYC and vicinity. But as others have mentioned, I'm a little concerned that the coastal might steal the show once it gets cranking as it would cutoff the forcing mechanisms further NW. Any significant errors at h5 could make this more significant. 2/13/06 looked like a light snow event 2 days out. So you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z Euro out to 54 hrs. Less amped compared to 00z run. 1004 mb low off NC coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Somewhat reminiscent of Feb 22 2001. general 3 - 6 with some higher amounts south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z Euro out to 54 hrs. Less amped compared to 00z run. 1004 mb low off NC coast. Damn, I guess 2-4" is what we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ECMWF is less amplified than the 00z run. I'd take my 2-5" and run at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z Euro has a light snow event. Nothing like the 0z run which was really amped. I will take this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 00z Euro had 992 mb low tucked off of NJ coast at 72 hrs. 12z Euro has 996 mb low about 25-50 miles further east at 60 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 00z Euro had 992 mb low tucked off of NJ coast at 72 hrs. 12z Euro has 996 mb low about 25-50 miles further east at 60 hrs. Looks like it is breaking toward what the ensemble mean had been showing all along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Precip is really weak. 1-3" most likely. I was fearing the euro was gonna back off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Pretty shocking to see the Euro do that inside 72 hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well after such a big system we just had, I'd be surprised if we had another one just days after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 That stinks. So further east it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Precip is really weak. 1-3" most likely. I was fearing the euro was gonna back off Ouch that's rough, now I'm just hoping we get a couple inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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