nzucker Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 I dont know why so many focus on the nao or that theres a pv in new england. You cut storms in this case because the pacific flow is too fast.it will mean the storm.cuts and the primary stays strong enough long enough that when it secondaries too late. Yes theres a block but too little for us with all due respect the atlantic is a child compared to the pacific. Theres plenty of cold air in canada and will swing in and out in a progressive way unless u spike the pna. Which u r not. Every 3 days systems r being driven into cali. The wave lenghts r short and any system takes aim at the lakes. U hav to trust me on ths unless u slow the pacific and elongate the wave lengths by spiking the pna gona b hard to drive a center to the se coast and then up. Merry xmas One of the problems is that Canada is NOT that cold. The PV is mostly sitting over Northern Greenland and Siberia in this pattern (particularly eastern Siberia). We're cut off from the big-league cold so we aren't going to benefit from lows going to our west because we don't have the antecedent arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 JMA is a big time hit with this storm for our area, taking the low from Alabama at 144hrs to Cape Cod at 168 hrs as a 981mb low. It drops more than 1 inch of precip in our area with 850 temps well below freezing in our area as the storm takes a just off shore track. Apparently perfect for our area as far as I can tell. And best of all, the JMA currently has the highest accuracy ratings currently at 8 days, although this is more like 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The 12z Euro ensemble mean is nearly identical to the Wednesday/Thursday storm, consolidating this thing in nearly the same area and running the 850 line somewhere near our heads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hard not to like the look of the GFS at 132 hours. Will be interesting to see if it moves the confluence out similarly to the Euro or if it holds strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 The northern stream energy I talked about this morning is getting involved on this run as well..much more so than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks to be a weenie run for us on 18z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 1004mb over Eastern NC at 150 hrs...northern stream looks a little late..but definitely some phasing at least. This run should bring most of the area a moderate snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Looks to be a weenie run for us on 18z gfs Should be an even bigger solution for New England once the northern stream phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Messy phase at 156 but....there it is...snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 18z GFS is looking a lot like the 12z JMA I was just talking about, but the JMA has it a bit closer to the coast, right where we really want it. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Hr 153 mod snow up to phl Hr 156 Phl getting crushed 990 east of Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nice hit for everyone between 150-162 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Should be an even bigger solution for New England once the northern stream phases. Yep...tad to Far East...still a mod snowfall like you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Nice run. Great timing and there is a legitimate 50/50 low showing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Early January continues to look very favorable. Lets hope this run has some idea on what is about to go down in the next 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 i don't see how this gives us a snowstorm. the euro and its ens mean give us rain and the pattern supports it.... above normal heights to the east of the system and no confluence to our NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 i don't see how this gives us a snowstorm. the euro and its ens mean give us rain and the pattern supports it.... above normal heights to the east of the system and no confluence to our NE I don't think we can say that for sure. Every model has something different in that regard right now. If the Euro is only slightly slower with the ULL moving out of the northeast, there is better confluence and the surface low redevelops sooner. The Euro is also much quicker to close off the shortwave over the MS Valley. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 That's exactly where u want the GFS 7 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Still there and cold enough on the 00z GFS, but light for NYC and PHL this run. Something again to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Right where we want it. I suspect it will show more consistency by tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Right where we want it. I suspect it will show more consistency by tomorrow evening. Why tomorrow evening? It's still over 5 days out. I expect it to be inconsistent for another 2-3 days at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 0z Ukie has a low north of Hatteras at 144 hours http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ukmet&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ukmet&stn2=PNM&hh2=072&fixhh=1&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro is gonna be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 992mb just south of east LI at 150. Heavy precip into NYC with snow just west of there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Really wraps up and deepens..destroys new england Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z ECMWF looks really nice @ 150. Developing system crashes into a cold airmass, then proceeds to bomb out as it passes north east of the region. Moderate snowstorm, verbatim. UKMET looks impressive as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro looks awesome. A little warm for the city and coast but the low is just south of Montauk at 150 hours...nice storm for most of NJ, SE NY, CT into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 00z GEFS and CMC are east. Trend west and stronger over the next 72 hours, and we have a very solid storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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