Jefflaw77 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Whoever is comparing it to the Boxing Day event, obviously is an idiot... There are comparisons, but that ain't it... I think we're setting up for a moderate event... 3-6".. That would be a safe bet now... Will it trend to a bigger event, possible.. Lets wait and see if the Euro is as bullish as last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 For whatever reason that trough axis flattens out on both the NAM and the GFS. The cause is beyond my level of understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 We have the jet exit region for bombogenesis so all we need now is for the low to be tucked in closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A 1-3 event would be just fine, hopefully we can get that and anything else is a pleasant surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The energy out west is pushing the progressive pattern. For whatever reason that trough axis flattens out on both the NAM and the GFS. The cause is beyond my level of understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Can we stop the comparisons to Boxing Day please. Completley different setup. On Boxing Day you had a huge ridge out west centered over Eastern Wyoming and North Dakota. You had a very deep long wave trough that extended all the way down into the gulf and cyclogenisis well SE of OBX. With this event, the trough isn't nearly as sharp and doesn't dig nearly enough. Despite a ridge axis located near the same area, it barely extends to the Canadian Border even on the 00z ECMWF. On Boxing Day, the ridge axis extended well up into Northern Canada. That was a very rare setup. Its a comparison in the sense that big east coast snows r missed by the gfs 3 and 4 days out. The gfs is as awful in 3 to 6 events as it is in 1 to 2 ft. Thats the comparison. Capice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the euro is still a little far SE for my liking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 For whatever reason that trough axis flattens out on both the NAM and the GFS. The cause is beyond my level of understanding. The phase doesn't happen in time on those. You can see that instead of the backside S/W slamming into the lead S/W, the backside wave lingers behind it until it's too late for us, and it results in the system shearing out and not developing a CCB until it's gone. There is also a progressive flow resulting from the trough over the West Coast and ridge over the Midwest, trying to push this out. We absolutely need the phase to happen in time or it's a minor to possibly moderate event in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is one of those storms where the coastal low formation can screw us...we may almost be better off getting the snow with upper trough vort because the coastal low formation as you can tell on most models suddenly "steals" the snow from the upper trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 As long as the models keep trending more favorably then I'm fine with the Nam and Gfs, If the Euro holds or trends even more favorably, then I think it's game on. Shades of boxing day are there when it comes to getting the phasing in on time or the storm goes OTS, though even in that case we'll still get a minor snowfall instead of a complete miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Its a comparison in the sense that big east coast snows r missed by the gfs 3 and 4 days out. The gfs is as awful in 3 to 6 events as it is in 1 to 2 ft. Thats the comparison. Capice With Boxing Day the models first sniffed it out around 10 days in advance. First as a "Bowling Ball" type trough that swung through and gave us some good WWA snows on the north side. Then of course as time went on, it was lost altogether until it made a stunning comeback in the bottom of the ninth with no runners on and two outs. The rest is history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS brings mixing issues all the way to Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The phase doesn't happen in time on those. You can see that instead of the backside S/W slamming into the lead S/W, the backside wave lingers behind it until it's too late for us, and it results in the system shearing out and not developing a CCB until it's gone. There is also a progressive flow resulting from the trough over the West Coast and ridge over the Midwest, trying to push this out. We absolutely need the phase to happen in time or it's a minor to possibly moderate event in spots. To get something really big of the Miller A variety we need that trough axis to come in much sharper on future runs and dig down into the Gulf States. Then we might be able to get that phase over the SE. I disagree about the trough on the west coast pushing the pattern. We need some decent blocking, that ridge axis over the western plains is amplified enough to get the job done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is one of those storms where the coastal low formation can screw us...we may almost be better off getting the snow with upper trough vort because the coastal low formation as you can tell on most models suddenly "steals" the snow from the upper trough. This. Especially for those in the NW part of forecasting area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 UKMET is in...cannot see precip but the low position at 60 hours looks close to last night's run at 72 hours but slightly weaker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS brings mixing issues all the way to Philly It's fine Ttn-north. 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 UKMET is in...cannot see precip but the low position at 60 hours looks close to last night's run at 72 hours but slightly weaker Stronger than the NAM and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 UKMET is in...cannot see precip but the low position at 60 hours looks close to last night's run at 72 hours but slightly weaker Hopefully the foreign suite stays amped at 12z, if not I'm about ready to write this one off for good (for major impacts). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Whoever is comparing it to the Boxing Day event, obviously is an idiot... There are comparisons, but that ain't it... I think we're setting up for a moderate event... 3-6".. That would be a safe bet now... Will it trend to a bigger event, possible.. Lets wait and see if the Euro is as bullish as last night... A. Watch ur mouth. B. the comparison is that the GFS is even missing ths 3 to 6 event. Feel me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GGEM is out. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Euro is the strongest right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 UKMET is in...cannot see precip but the low position at 60 hours looks close to last night's run at 72 hours but slightly weaker very little precip...its further east than 0Z. EDIT - probably around .4 or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GGEM looks about the same. It's QPF may be slightly higher though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 very little precip...its further east than 0Z. It's not little. It brings a good swath of precip into I-95 and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's not little. It brings a good swath of precip into I-95 and NYC. see my edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GGEM looks about the same. It's QPF may be slightly higher though. Slightly more amped but nothing major. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's not little. It brings a good swath of precip into I-95 and NYC. Can you please post a link to where you are getting the UKMET so early? Thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 very little precip...its further east than 0Z. EDIT - probably around .4 or so Around. 40-.50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The comparison to all past storms is the GFS misses them all in ths case it's missing a 3 to 6 event 3 days out. The error is simple. The GFS run the energy off the playing field to fast. It's an error in the model when prog going systems on the east coast. The euro holds the energy back that's y u get a closer solution. The reason u dont get a bomb is because there's a trof crashing into the west coast and it flattens the trof in the east just enough so it doesn't really go neg tilted for us. So to those who don't understand the comparison it's purely on why I trust the euro 3 days out and not the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm still thinking 3-4" here. It seems to be a fair balance between what the models are trending towards AND what we want the models to show that probably will not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Can you please post a link to where you are getting the UKMET so early? Thank you. I saw someone post it to an online weather board. Unfortunately, I don't have a link for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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