IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No they dont. Soundings have the city at 28.1 as the precip moves in and 31.9 by the time it ends at hour 54. And that's going off the NAM dry and less amped solution, which is a bug outlier at this point. I'm just going off the graphics which show the surface freezing line basically over the city or just to the NW during the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Made it to hunter. 10 inches up here. Follow euro. Gfs always s e 3 days out. Nam is useless. I dont knw why pp look at it outside 36 hrs. Euro and euro ensembles. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Made it to hunter. 10 inches up here. Follow euro. Gfs always s e 3 days out. Nam is useless. I dont knw why pp look at it outside 36 hrs. Euro and euro ensembles. Seriously. The 09Z old ETA resembles more the Euro than the NAM, still is mainly a miss but barely, its about as close as you can get and be a miss. The Euro's solution from last night is likely overdone, the upper levels don't really match having a low that strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Made it to hunter. 10 inches up here. Follow euro. Gfs always s e 3 days out. Nam is useless. I dont knw why pp look at it outside 36 hrs. Euro and euro ensembles. Seriously. If the NAM was showing a bomb on the benchmark and the Euro and GFS were both way OTS and flat would you still think it was garbage? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z RGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Nam is pretty much one the flattest and driest solutions but it's clearly making strides toward the euro. It's actually still outside of what I think is its most reliable range of 48 hrs or less. I'm curious as to what the gfs will do, it should at this point trend more amplified if the Euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z RGEM http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Looks good but a slight shift north could give LI a mix or rain. I'd like for it to go a little more south than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Seems that the models are starting to point toward a more amplified solution. What is the timing looking like on this puppy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z rgem 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z RGEM http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Resembling the EURO pretty nicely thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z RGEM http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Looking good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If the NAM was showing a bomb on the benchmark and the Euro and GFS were both way OTS and flat would you still think it was garbage? He is correct, the NAM is not very good out that far, and the Euro has the highest accuracy in that range. The model that is most likely to be correct is the Euro. Of course though, there is no guarantee it is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The PNA is favorable for this storm but the NAO isn't. Although, the NAO is heading downward . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looking good right now. Looks like snow over to a mix over to rain. Similar to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Nam is pretty much one the flattest and driest solutions but it's clearly making strides toward the euro. It's actually still outside of what I think is its most reliable range of 48 hrs or less. I'm curious as to what the gfs will do, it should at this point trend more amplified if the Euro is correct. Yes. 96 03 05 2010 all come to mind 3 days out. East coasr. Gfs. Look up maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The PNA is favorable for this storm but the NAO isn't. Although, the NAO is heading downward . Can you elaborate a bit more on the NAO a bit of what phase it'll be on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yes. 96 03 05 2010 all come to mind 3 days out. East coasr. Gfs. Look up maps Im not talking size. I mean proged south and east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 There was a huge step on the NAM. Almost all SECS act this way on the models. NAM is surpressed with GFS, Euro stays consistent with MINOR budges back and forth and the American models gradually join the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The PNA is favorable for this storm but the NAO isn't. Although, the NAO is heading downward . Not really. One of the things killing this is a trough crashing into the West Coast. The flow is very progressive and it could easily throw our big storm into disarray. But hopefully a few inches could accumulate anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Can you elaborate a bit more on the NAO a bit of what phase it'll be on? The NAO right now is positive.It looks like it is trending downward toward the negative phase after the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He is correct, the NAM is not very good out that far, and the Euro has the highest accuracy in that ra nge. The model that is most likely to be correct is the Euro. Of course though, there is no guarantee it is correct. You both missed my point. I'm well aware what the name "is". I wasn't trying to say that its solution was correct, just pointing out what it's showing. Now if the actual soundings show colder surface temps that's a different story all together. My statement was based off the 12z NAM graphics on e-wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Also for those worrying about temps, if EURO is right and the low gets going farther South and bombs out cold will not be an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z GFS starting to come in a tad more negatively tilted at 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A bit more upstream ridging- this may be a very good solution for the area. EDIT-Trough widens a bit at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 At 57 hours, the low is closer to the coast than the 6z run but weaker than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The nam is notrious for blow torching the BL on the coast. It thinks long island is a gas bag in its algo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Getting closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Can we stop the comparisons to Boxing Day please. Completley different setup. On Boxing Day you had a huge ridge out west centered over Eastern Wyoming and North Dakota. You had a very deep long wave trough that extended all the way down into the gulf and cyclogenisis well SE of OBX. With this event, the trough isn't nearly as sharp and doesn't dig nearly enough. Despite a ridge axis located near the same area, it barely extends to the Canadian Border even on the 00z ECMWF. On Boxing Day, the ridge axis extended well up into Northern Canada. That was a very rare setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yl715 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z vs 6z. A bit more amplified. But a little too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeS Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Encouraging trends thus far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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