bluewave Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Euro still has a slight lead over the GFS at 72 hrs, so I think that the models will begin to converge today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Euro still has a slight lead over the GFS at 72 hrs, so I think that the models will begin to converge today and tonight. I believe it was the first to sniff out the colder further se track with yesterday's storm inside 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 New SREF's are way amped as compared to 3Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 SREF has a 990 low southeast of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 SREFs look decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NOAGPS at 00z was way flat and SE, good sign given its bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 SREF mean 850 low track is in a great position for NYC snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 HPC for 4 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z NAM - through 24hrs. Shortwave looks a bit more amped up and like it is digging a big more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Through hr 30, shortwave again looking more amped up than 06z. Located over Western OK at hr 30. Low pressure over Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If the 12z suite comes in more amplified and with a big storm, I'll start getting excited. You would hope models come together at this stage-we're pretty close in now and the models should be able to sample the relevant features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If the 12z suite comes in more amplified and with a big storm, I'll start getting excited. You would hope models come together at this stage-we're pretty close in now and the models should be able to sample the relevant features. It's probably now or never. We're almost inside 48 hours from the onset of precip and the models have had a chance to properly sample the shortwaves in question. Looks like it will all come down to that last shortwave and when and if it can phase in. A late phase and you get a 00z Euro type solution. A missed phase or a sloppy phase and it's way OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z NAM at hr 36 is already sharper with the trough than 6Z. 12Z(hr36) http://www.meteo.psu...2z/wrfloop.html 6Z(hr42) http://www.meteo.psu...6z/wrfloop.html Edit: also more positively tilted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z NAM at hr 36 is already sharper with the trough than 6Z. 12Z(hr36) http://www.meteo.psu...2z/wrfloop.html 6Z(hr42) http://www.meteo.psu...6z/wrfloop.html Thought so too, just not sure if it's significant. For some reason the NAM is running painfully slow on e-wall. Been stuck at hr 36 for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Big amplification trend on the NAM if you compare this run so far to the 00z run last night. Not sure if this will pull off a Euro solution, but its is trending that way for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hr 42 the NAM is much more amplified with the shortwave in question than 06z. Low pressure over central Alabama at hr 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Out to 45hr, the NAM looks higher with heights along the East Coast, than at 0z. I think this should be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Thought so too, just not sure if it's significant. For some reason the NAM is running painfully slow on e-wall. Been stuck at hr 36 for awhile. At hr 42 you can see a bit more of a height build on the east coast when compared to hr 48 of the 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 hr 48 still more amplified. Precip on the doorstep of Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks good for a light event, but it doesn't dig the s/w like the euro did yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Compared to hr 54 on the 06z NAM when the precip was barely up to DCA, at hr 48 on the 12z the precip is almost up to the PA/NY state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hr 54, we're all in light snow. 850 freezing line is way offshore, SE of Ocean City, MD. The base of the trough isn't as sharp as the Euro and never goes negative tilt like the Euro does. Weak low pressure off the VA/NC coast. Looks like this one will slip OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Still some big improvements on the 12z NAM. Need that trough to dig more into the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 hr 60 that's all she wrote. Would probably not amount to anything more than a dusting up this way. Big freeze after that. 850 freezing line SE of Myrtle Beach by hr 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A closer look at the 12z NAM shows that even with such supressed disorganized track the city south and east would have surface temp issues, despite the 850 freezing line being well SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A closer look at the 12z NAM shows that even with such supressed disorganized track the city south and east would have surface temp issues, despite the 850 freezing line being well SE. No they dont. Soundings have the city at 28.1 as the precip moves in and 31.9 by the time it ends at hour 54. And that's going off the NAM's dry and no dynamics solution, which is a big outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 From Upton's forecast discussion: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY SAT AS DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST... WITH ONE WEAKENING CENTER WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE SE COAST. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY SAT NIGHT AS IT PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM. EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF INDICATED THAT THIS PHASING WOULD TAKE PLACE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AT MOST...BUT NOW THE 00Z ECMWF...IN A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE NE PACIFIC TO THE CONUS...SWINGS THE BOMBING LOW VERY CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SAT NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF FROM NYC METRO EAST. THE 00Z GFS HAS MOVED TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION AS WELL...AND LEAST HALF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...IN A NOD TO THE 00Z ECMWF...ARE TRACKING NW OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND ARE MORE INTENSE. THIS YIELDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL OF 3 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...AND LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 From Upton's forecast discussion: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST EARLY SAT AS DOUBLE-BARRELED LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST... WITH ONE WEAKENING CENTER WEST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MOVING FROM THE GULF COAST TOWARD THE SE COAST. THE LOW SHOULD EXIT THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST SAT AFTERNOON AND STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY SAT NIGHT AS IT PHASES WITH THE NRN STREAM. EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF INDICATED THAT THIS PHASING WOULD TAKE PLACE FAR ENOUGH EAST TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO THE FORKS OF LONG ISLAND AT MOST...BUT NOW THE 00Z ECMWF...IN A SLIGHTLY MORE AMPLIFIED OVERALL PATTERN EXTENDING FROM THE NE PACIFIC TO THE CONUS...SWINGS THE BOMBING LOW VERY CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK SAT NIGHT...WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF FROM NYC METRO EAST. THE 00Z GFS HAS MOVED TOWARD A MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION AS WELL...AND LEAST HALF ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...IN A NOD TO THE 00Z ECMWF...ARE TRACKING NW OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN AND ARE MORE INTENSE. THIS YIELDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST ADVISORY CRITERIA SNOWFALL OF 3 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE ENTIRE CWA...AND LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN CT...WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN HWO. Lol, did a member of this message board write that up? It sounds exactly like how any number of members here would post to describe the model analysis depicting a SECS/MECS in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No they dont. Soundings have the city at 28.1 as the precip moves in and 31.9 by the time it ends at hour 54. And that's going off the NAM dry and less amped solution, which is a bug outlier at this point. Agree with you 100% . Right now we have Ukie & Euro on board & GFS wasnt bad last night. If it amplifies further with a slightly bigger phase one hr from now ull have a bynch of folks climaxing on here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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