Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm not going to squabble with an amateur tonight. That is simply not true. People in eastern PA saw very little accumulating snow. 8.9 inches in Warren County---->25 inches in Morris County....I think the east did better....However, as I noted previously, there was a convective band (which thunder I experienced and extreme snowfall rates) which laid down another 5-8 inches of snow in east-central NJ from Middlesex County north. If it weren't for the convective nature at the tale end, the eastern most counties would have done best. The gradient is basically the opposite this time though....in that storm, being further west was better. In the storm shown on the 0z ECM, being east is better. I understand that you could be talking about specific areas of NJ, but the synoptics and banding aren't really that similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm not going to squabble with an amateur tonight. Dude, give it a rest. It's called discussion and difference of opinion. You are the one who started the agitated conversation by asking him if he could read or comprehend. He ignored that part and responded, and you throw in a condescending line. There's a good discussion going on in here...I don't think it's necessary to ruin it with this crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A few GEFS members at 00z were pretty excited... http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zensp008p06078.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zensp009p06078.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zensp004p06072.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/00zensp009p06072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The GFS is just itching to show something bigger and it will. The euro looked great by as early as hr 30 with the digging/sharper s/w over the SW and the southern plains which is a huge signal that it's onto something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 what's the probable timing on this storm as of right now- late afternoon saturday into sunday? - or a little earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Debating staying up for the 6z suites, ugh. But I really think the GFS is going to show something big soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Debating staying up for the 6z suites, ugh. But I really think the GFS is going to show something big soon. what time is that at again - 3-4am? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 what's the probable timing on this storm as of right now- late afternoon saturday into sunday? - or a little earlier? Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning, yes. Measurable precip falls before 2pm Saturday on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Saturday afternoon until Sunday morning, yes. Measurable precip falls before 2pm Saturday on the Euro. Thanks John! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 what time is that at again - 3-4am? I believe the NAM comes out around 330ish.. I usually never am able to stay awake for the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The fact that this is coming up soon and is in the Euro's wheelhouse is a big plus. Hopefully we see a continued trend tomorrow and this isn't a burp. We still need a lot to go right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What does the 0z Euro show for the 1/3/2013 threat? After that period, does the -NAO/-AO reestablish itself along with good MJO phases? And is the stratosphere continuing to warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What does the 0z Euro show for the 1/3/2013 threat? After that period, does the -NAO/-AO reestablish itself along with good MJO phases? And is the stratosphere continuing to warm? Could be the euro bias but it hangs the energy out west and misses the phase it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What does the 0z Euro show for the 1/3/2013 threat? After that period, does the -NAO/-AO reestablish itself along with good MJO phases? And is the stratosphere continuing to warm? It shows a big -NAO block developing at the end of the run... It doesn't eject the SW low on 1/3 so there's not much of a threat there and temps are very cold over the Northeast, -12 to -16C 850s. Don't know about the other stuff, just looking at free maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What does the 0z Euro show for the 1/3/2013 threat? After that period, does the -NAO/-AO reestablish itself along with good MJO phases? And is the stratosphere continuing to warm? Misses the first phases and then tries again around day 10 with another piece of northern stream..It's weird. The threat is definitely there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Anyone else seeing a lot of lighting outside. I have seen like 10 flashes in the last 10 min? Wrong thread but yeah, loud thunder too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro ensembles are way more amped up than the 12z run .. not quite as robust as the OP. Looks like 0.40-0.50 from about the city eastward. Surface low from OBX to a tick SE of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM and SREFS still looks fairly flat, they don't dig the s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM and SREFS still looks fairly flat, they don't dig the s/w NAM is really ugly. even flatter than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM is really ugly. even flatter than 0z Getting a storm is never easy lol. Atleast the euro ens are amped up as well as the op this close to the event. That's a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM is really ugly. even flatter than 0z Eventually its better still a dud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Eventually its better still a dud. Can't say I'm too surprised. But if the euro holds serve at 12z than I wouldn't even break a sweat about future nam runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Can't say I'm too surprised. But if the euro holds serve at 12z than I wouldn't even break a sweat about future nam runs. It does worry me and will only worry me more when its in better range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It does worry me and will only worry me more when its in better range. Meh no point yet. Almost every model shows at least some snow, and the trend has generally been favorable for us the past day. The euro could obviously be wrong, but at this time frame I have a lot more confidence in it vs the nam.. Oh well time for bed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The NAM is really having a week to forget, now the 2nd storm where its different from every model at 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The NAM is really having a week to forget, now the 2nd storm where its different from every model at 72 hours. Its really at the bottom of my list right at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS pretty much the same as 0z. A tick to the SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The best part about this snowfall, regardless of how much, is that it will be a day falling snow on a weekend with some good football and college bball on. I'm stocking up on good beers today... It does look like the NW NJ crew may be on the lighter side this go around and, speaking for them, we're cool with that. Enjoy the snow and we hope it piles on for those to our East! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll be in Harrisburg -- figures that I'll miss out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 For those who still like the "EE Rule" this is good news... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETAEAST_6z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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