readingaccount1 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 0.50" line from PHL to HPN 0.75" line from Mt Holly through JFK to CT Coast 1.00" line from Jersey Shore to Islip 1.50" from Montauk to Boston 2.00" over the Cape/Far SE MA. Low end warning snows from PHL to Warning snows it looks like. Ratios would help in the western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Earthlight, the spread of totals sorta sounds like a version of 12/19/09- im not saying the system is similar synoptically but overall, from what u stated above w/ the totals. Your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Different threat but the euro is finally ejecting the cutoff energy now with a bunch of northern stream vorts diving down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The second I saw the number of new replies, I knew the Euro was a big run. Historic storm for Long Island!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's becoming more evident every day that this needs to be monitored. Many of us have been saying this storm needs to be monitored for over a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 0.50" line from PHL to HPN 0.75" line from Mt Holly through JFK to CT Coast 1.00" line from Jersey Shore to Islip 1.50" from Montauk to Boston 2.00" over the Cape/Far SE MA. Is this a guess or total qpf map? Im seeing it as .60"-.75" for NYC, .75"-1" for Nassau/Western Suffolk and 1"-1.25" for eastern LI and the Cape. LGA soundings have .68" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What's with the model site for the gfs/nam, it keeps saying Error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A bit like the 12/30/00 storm...real sharp cutoff on totals just to the west. This is still mostly a coastal NJ and LI hit. Don't get me wrong, much of NJ sees accumulating snow per the EC, but it's still not a huge hit. Trend is our friend at this point. Sampling of the S/W on the west coast likely led to this significant change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What's with the model site for the gfs/nam, it keeps saying Error? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What's with the model site for the gfs/nam, it keeps saying Error? it's been down since about 11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A bit like the 12/30/00 storm...real sharp cutoff on totals just to the west. This is still mostly a coastal NJ and LI hit. Don't get me wrong, much of NJ sees accumulating snow per the EC, but it's still not a huge hit. Trend is our friend at this point. Sampling of the S/W on the west coast likely led to this significant change. That is a solid 6"-9" snowstorm for NYC on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Really liking the way this run looked. Hopefully we can see some continued improvements by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 http://www.meteo.psu...fxg1/ewall.html That's better thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A bit like the 12/30/00 storm...real sharp cutoff on totals just to the west. This is still mostly a coastal NJ and LI hit. Don't get me wrong, much of NJ sees accumulating snow per the EC, but it's still not a huge hit. Trend is our friend at this point. Sampling of the S/W on the west coast likely led to this significant change. Yes but 11/30/2000, the highest accumulations were for interior NJ around west Milford, though NE NJ did also get 15-20" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll tell you what man...the SREFs have been hinting at the potential for these types of solutions for a few runs now. A few of these members would bring the goods. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SREF21PRSNE_21z/f75.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Euro ensembles should be interesting, certainly a trend in the right direction. Based off of what I am reading I would think places like New Brunswick NJ and EWR would be between 0.50"-0.75" QPF, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Earthlight seems really pleased and happy w/ the trends... When he's all giddy about events like this- we all should be... Hopefully today will continue to be a healthy and happy model watching day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 There was some convective snows at the very end of the event and areas in north CNJ got hammered for a 2-3 hr period with 2-3 in/hr snows which really increased the totals. Yes but 11/30/2000, the highest accumulations were for interior NJ around west Milford, though NE NJ did also get 15-20" or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Last run of the SREF were not as impressive as earlier today. However, notably, 5 members showed a Euro type scenario. There were multiple members of complete whiffs with the SLP moving ENE off Cape Hatteras. HPC has been picking up on something fishy as even their graphics from earlier today were a bit optimistic given the last runs of the GFS and Euro. I'll tell you what man...the SREFs have been hinting at the potential for these types of solutions for a few runs now. A few of these members would bring the goods. http://www.meteo.psu...SNE_21z/f75.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's still far from a lock but the chance of at least a minor snowfall (2-4") are very high and the chances of a moderate snowfall (4-8) are definitely increasing. Even something near a MECS may not be out of the question if the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A bit like the 12/30/00 storm...real sharp cutoff on totals just to the west. This is still mostly a coastal NJ and LI hit. Don't get me wrong, much of NJ sees accumulating snow per the EC, but it's still not a huge hit. Trend is our friend at this point. Sampling of the S/W on the west coast likely led to this significant change. I don't see the similarity....that one tracked up the CT River Valley and changed eastern New England to rain, whereas this one gives the larger totals to eastern New England (Boston and Cape) with a much further southeast track. The totals are also a lot lower for NJ on this run that the 12/30/00 storm....no one sees the 16-20" that fell in that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Earthlight seems really pleased and happy w/ the trends... When he's all giddy about events like this- we all should be... Hopefully today will continue to be a healthy and happy model watching day.. Hard not to be pleased with the trends especially now with that Euro solution inside 72 hr. Compare the 12 and 00z runs of the GFS. Trending pretty steadily towards a more organized trough in the Central US...more amplified height field on the East Coast as a result...and faster/more energetic N stream shortwave diving south. Another trend like this and we'll be set. But it remains to be seen if we'll get there. 12z : http://www.meteo.psu...AVN_12z/f66.gif 00z: http://www.meteo.psu.../AVN_0z/f54.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 You clearly either A)can't read or can't comprehend. I was speaking of the very tight gradient from west to east in terms of snowfall totals. Also, the precip shield was similiar to the Euro in which the snow backs in westward. Some folks on the Delaware River could be left high and dry looking east as heavy snow falls only 5-10 miles east of them. I don't see the similarity....that one tracked up the CT River Valley and changed eastern New England to rain, whereas this one gives the larger totals to eastern New England (Boston and Cape) with a much further southeast track. The totals are also a lot lower for NJ on this run that the 12/30/00 storm....no one sees the 16-20" that fell in that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 You clearly either A)can't read or can't comprehend. I was speaking of the very tight gradient from west to east in terms of snowfall totals. Also, the precip shield was similiar to the Euro in which the snow backs in westward. Some folks on the Delaware River could be left high and dry looking east as heavy snow falls only 5-10 miles east of them. 12/19/09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 You clearly either A)can't read or can't comprehend. I was speaking of the very tight gradient from west to east in terms of snowfall totals. Also, the precip shield was similiar to the Euro in which the snow backs in westward. Some folks on the Delaware River could be left high and dry looking east as heavy snow falls only 5-10 miles east of them. The gradient is basically the opposite this time though....in that storm, being further west was better. In the storm shown on the 0z ECM, being east is better. I understand that you could be talking about specific areas of NJ, but the synoptics and banding aren't really that similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12/19/09 Very different pattern in every aspect around the storm but hey, not bad as far as the s/w trof and sfc low goes. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2009/121921.png http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_0z/f72.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I would hazard a guess that the frames prior to the ones that earthlight show more precipitation west of NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Very different pattern in every aspect around the storm but hey, not bad as far as the s/w trof and sfc low goes. http://www.meteo.psu...2009/121921.png http://www.meteo.psu.../AVN_0z/f72.gif The shape of the trough is similar, but 12/19/09 was digging much more so it gave a bigger impact to DC/BWI...this one mostly looks like a threat from PHL north. We also had a much more solid ridge on the West Coast without the cut-off low in '09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Very different pattern in every aspect around the storm but hey, not bad as far as the s/w trof and sfc low goes. http://www.meteo.psu...2009/121921.png http://www.meteo.psu.../AVN_0z/f72.gif like i said earlier - synoptically, i know its different... the spread of snowfall sounds somewhat similar.. possibly a huge cut off in new jersey on west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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